With the way rosters change fast in modern college football, there seem to be a handful teams each season that come out of nowhere and shoot straight to the top of the list of contenders.
Mississippi State is certainly one of those teams. And it has happened fast.
“Fast” is a term that describes more than the Bulldogs’ ascension. It also describes a hallmark of the team, particularly on offense. Between an offensive skill group built to go a million miles an hour, and the emergence of QB Kamario Taylor, the Bulldogs can play with just about anyone in a battle of offensive firepower.
The question in this game will be whether the Bulldogs can stop a balanced Alabama offense fronted by the best quarterback the Bulldogs have seen so far this year, Keelon Russell.
OFFENSE
Mississippi State runs the Veer-and-Shoot offense, which is just what it sounds like – a combination of the Run-and-Shoot philosophies popularized by Mouse Davis many decades ago, with a traditional veer running game seen at countless high schools across the country every Friday. It might not have the most aristocratic pedigree, but it works. Alabama will see all manner of RPO-based elements, sweeps, jet action and tempo. Mississippi State currently ranks 4th in the nation in total offense, 13th in passing and 26th in rushing. Alabama’s Air Raid-influenced offense continues to be one of the most consistent and efficient offenses every week. The Crimson Tide ranks 24th in total offense, 27th in passing and 41st in rushing.
QUARTERBACKS
Alabama’s Keelon Russell, in the span of a month, has gone from a guy that Alabama was having to manage while he learned, to one of the top quarterbacks in the country. But whereas Alabama can count on having the edge at quarterback for just about the rest of its games in 2026, it can’t count on such this week. Mississippi State will start Kamario Taylor, who has about the same amount of experience as Russell does, and very similar stat sheets and makeup. Taylor, like Russell, is his team’s second-leading rusher, but it’s his pocket presence, demeanor and passing skills that make him most dangerous. For the season, Taylor has thrown for 1,192 yards – Russell’s totals are eerily similar; 1,129 yards – and Taylor’s completion percentage of 69.2% only just trails Russell’s of 70.9%. The only major statistical difference is in touchdowns; Russell has pitched 8 while Taylor has 14. Both quarterbacks have thrown 2 interceptions, although Taylor seems to be a bit less careful when throwing into traffic. Russell has been a more effective weapon in the red zone. If we were to stop there, we’d actually give this one to the Bulldogs based on just the extra smidge of experience Taylor has, but there’s a depth component to all our category rankings. In that regard, Alabama pulls ahead, with Austin Mack a better option than Parker Puckett is for the Bulldogs. Also, Taylor isn’t quite 100% this week health-wise, although we don’t feel like it’s going to make that much of a difference unless he is re-injured. We don’t give out pushes in the category rankings; otherwise, we’d think long and hard about it here. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
It’s clear after a month of data now that Alabama has fixed the problems at running back. Daniel Hill is a good all-around option as the starter, while freshmen Trae’shawn Brown and Ezavier Crowell offer two unique options as his principal backup. Kevin Riley got more action last week against South Carolina and offers Alabama a good receiving option out of the backfield. And then there’s A.K. Dear, who is probably ready to rejoin the depth chart. It’s an uncommon amount of depth. Mississippi State is more dependent on one player, and that’s Fluff Bothwell, who has rushed for more yards on his own than Alabama’s top two running backs combined. Bothwell, who is from Oneonta and transferred to the Bulldogs from South Alabama, is a battering ram of a back, almost the size Daniel Hill was for Alabama last year before he trimmed up. What Bothwell isn’t, at the moment, is fully healthy; he’s listed as probable for this game and that’s an improvement over what most MSU observers thought they’d get back on Sunday. Kolin Wilson and Xavier Gayten are the next two up. Wilson is about Kevin Riley’s size on a good day, while Gayten is more of the traditional SEC running back. It makes for three nice, unique options at the position for Mississippi State and if Bothwell is truly healthy, it will allow the Bulldogs to hold a modest edge here. Advantage: Mississippi State
WIDE RECEIVERS
This is going to be a hard unit to evaluate, because Mississippi State absolutely has the speed edge, even over an Alabama unit fronted by Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks. However, Alabama has superior depth, and the tight end room has few peers. Looking first at Alabama, Brooks jumped into the spotlight against the Gamecocks last week, but Coleman-Williams remains one of the most feared receivers in the conference. Rico Scott continues to make a place for himself as a physical receiver who blocks as well as he catches, maybe even more so. The return of Noah Rogers started last week against South Carolina, with Rogers catching a 36-yard pass on his first snap of action. We expect to continue to see more of him, as well as Derek Meadows and Cederian Morgan. For Mississippi State, Anthony Evans III has developed into one of the most productive receivers in the conference over the last two years, and has already caught 28 passes for 408 yards (14.6 avg.) and 3 touchdowns this year. Sanfrisco Magee has added 5 touchdowns out of his 13 catches, which goes along with 208 total yards (16.0 avg.). Zion Ragins will start in the slot, with Missouri transfer Marquis Johnson backing everything up. If there’s a problem here, it’s that the depth chart all but stops with Johnson, as Ayden Williams is out for this game. There’s also a general lack of size at receiver for Mississippi State, with only Magee being over 6 feet tall, although Alabama’s starters aren’t much bigger. This comparison is a pretty good sparring match until you add in the Alabama tight end group – Josh Ford, Danny Lewis Jr., Kaleb Edwards, Marshall Pritchett and Jay Lindsey – which makes both the running game and the passing game click. Mississippi State has just one player with stats – Sam West has caught 6 passes for 50 yards (8.3 avg.) and 1 touchdown. This unit may be the strength of the Bulldog team outside of Kamario Taylor, but Alabama holds serve and then some. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
For the second week in a row, Alabama will likely be missing a player who transferred in from the week’s opponent. Last week it was DE/LB Desmond Umeozulu, who came to Alabama from South Carolina. This week it’s RT Jayvin James, who was a Bulldog in 2025. It would be unfortunate if James is out for any length of time – he sustained what looked to be an ankle injury late against South Carolina – for more than just the fact that the injury robs James of being able to suit up against his former mates. He’s been one of the big reasons Alabama has been better up front in 2026, a better fit for the Tide’s scheme at tackle than the players he replaced. If James can’t go, JUCO signee Tyrell Miller will get his first collegiate start, with Michael Carroll at right guard, Racin Delgatty at center and Jackson Lloyd at left tackle. Left guard Will Sanders was also hurt against South Carolina, but he recovered quickly the early part of this week. We believe he’ll start this game, although the fact Mal Waldrep was locked in a 50/50 battle with him earlier in the year means Alabama has some options there. For Mississippi State, the left side of the line is anchored by LSU transfer D.J. Chester at guard and one-time Alabama transfer Miles McVay at left tackle. Canon Boone starts at center, L.J. Prudhomme at right guard and Jakheem Shumpert-Perkins at right tackle. These two teams are tied at 84th nationally in sacks allowed, and the Bulldogs are somewhat better at preventing tackles for losses (67th vs. 99th for Alabama). The question here is whether the stats match the tape. Mississippi State’s line is not the quickest, especially on the left side; indeed, this has more the look of a line that would be at home pounding the ball a bit. Alabama has allowed a lot of negative plays but also has better tape and continues to show improvement with each week. The loss of James, though, can’t be overlooked. Advantage: Mississippi State
DEFENSE
One of the more interesting hires in college football this offseason was when Mississippi State brought back former head coach Zach Arnett to lead the defense. Arnett had been defensive coordinator at the time of former coach Mike Leach’s death, and was given the keys to the team during the transition period. He probably wasn’t ready to be a head coach just yet, so it makes sense to allow this situation to reach an ultimately amicable conclusion by bringing back Arnett as an assistant. Arnett is a solid defensive coordinator, and his presence has already paid huge dividends. This is a 3-3-5 base for the most part, which prioritizes aggressiveness. Rushing defense has already toughened up to 36th nationally, but a work-in-progress pass defense (114th in raw pass defense, 59th in pass efficiency defense) keeps total defense numbers at 74th. Alabama’s 4-2-5 Swarm defense has been solid against the run (24th) and claims a total defense rating of 47th, but is also having issues with pass defense this year (88th in raw pass defense, 68th in pass efficiency defense). Neither team is expected to put up great defensive numbers this week with all the talent running around on offense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Both teams are impacted by injuries this week, although it’s worse on the Mississippi State side. The starters are the same – tackles Jaray Bledsoe and D.J. Reed, and end Will Whitson – but two key reserves, Diesel Moye and Trevion Williams, will miss the game. That means Dealyn Evans and Jayson Jenkins will have to handle just about all the extra snaps; Kalvin Dinkins is also available. Mississippi State ranks 57th in tackles for loss and 50th in sacks. Alabama will rotate Terrance Green, London Simmons and former Bulldog Kedrick Bingley-Jones at tackle, along with Isaia Faga. Edric Hill and Steve Mboumoua provide depth. At Bandit end, Devan Thompkins continues to put up strong results every week. Fatutoa Henry stepped up nicely as Thompkins’ backup with Umeozulu out last week. Alabama ranks 68th in tackles for loss and 27th in sacks. In addition to that and the depth edge, Alabama has a wider variety of body types and playstyles to go to here. Size isn’t an issue for Mississippi State, but the quickness can’t match what Alabama has. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Amaree Williams, a Florida State transfer that Alabama was said to have been pursuing, ended up in Starkville and will start at Jack linebacker. Inside, the Bulldogs are managing the loss of another projected starter, Zakari Tillman; Tyler Lockhart will start there next to Jalen Smith. First off the bench is one of the great names in football, Fatt Forrest. Lockhart and Smith have been solid for the Bulldogs, making plays behind the line and also being solid in coverage. Even though Alabama’s and MSU’s base systems are very different, the inside linebacker responsibilities (and opportunities) are quite similar for both teams. One of the issues for the Bulldogs is sack production; while being 50th in sacks puts the Bulldogs in the top third of all FBS teams, no individual on the defense has more than 1.5 sacks. Alabama has more of a go-to presence in Wolf linebacker Yhonzae Pierre, who is good against the run, superlative against the pass and even has good coverage skills. The inside linebacker team, led by Caleb Woodson and Luke Metz, would ordinarily be considered the surprise of the team were it not for the improvement made by the offensive line. Q.B. Reese, Xavier Griffin, Abduall Sanders and Duke Johnson will provide depth inside, while Jah-Marien Latham and Griffin also back up Pierre. The loss of reserve Justin Hill has already been felt and will continue to be felt, but overall, Alabama has simply been more productive. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Neither secondary is setting the world on fire at the moment, although at least Alabama has stopped burning its own house down the last couple of weeks. The problems the two teams face are not similar; Mississippi State is trying to rebuild its unit almost from the ground up, while Alabama is back largely intact from a year ago. Kelley Jones and Jett Jefferson start at the corners for the Bulldogs, with Marcus Williams and Jardin Gilbert at the high safeties and Isaac Smith at nickel. Smith is not 100% for this week; if he can’t go, look for Oklahoma transfer Kendel Dolby to get the call. Backup safety Dre Riley has the only interception by a Bulldog defensive back on the season so far. Alabama will use Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. and Carmelo O’Neal at cornerback, and a starting safety tandem of Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb at the top of the box and Rydarrius Morgan underneath at nickel. Chuck McDonald, Ivan Taylor and Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. provide depth in the middle, and Zavier Mincey may be returning this week from injury. Whereas the numbers are similar in both units, we like Alabama’s track record and potential better, and the Crimson Tide is more active at creating turnovers on the back end. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
The actual kicking for Mississippi State – placekicker Kyle Ferrie, punter Ethan Pulliam – has been largely fine, although Ferrie has missed one short field goal attempt. The problem for Mississippi State has been … everything else. The Bulldogs rank 133rd in punt returns, 132nd in kickoff returns, net punting is 74th despite Pulliam averaging 43.6 yards per punt, and kickoff return defense is 126th. Punt return defense, which checks in at 48th, becomes the statistical star of the show by default. Alabama has gotten excellent results from placekicker Conor Talty and punter Alex Asparuhov, and other than punt returns (84th), all categories are in very good shape and certainly better than what Mississippi State has been doing. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Mississippi State in two. It would be 7-1 if Bama RT Jayvin James weren’t hurt, and the argument could be made for a straight-8. On the flip side, there are several other categories (quarterback, receiver, linebacker) that could go to the Bulldogs if evaluated with different eyes. As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama’s DL strongly controls the matchup with the Mississippi State OL. At best, the opposite matchup of MSU’s DL to Alabama’s OL is a push, and that’s only because James is hurt.
For those reasons, it would seem we would be on the verge of picking a comfortable Alabama win. But it’s not that easy. We don’t know how well Tyrell Miller will do in his first start at right tackle. Kamario Taylor may very well be Keelon Russell’s equal, or even more than that. The game is in Starkville, could wind up being played in bad weather, and is an 11 a.m. kickoff that must deal with the always-awkward transportation scenarios given the proximity of Tuscaloosa to Starkville.
We think Alabama comes out of this one OK, but this could be a last-possession game. We’re expecting fireworks, and if fireworks bother you as much as they do some pets, maybe it’s the kind of weekend to sleep in.
Alabama 41
Mississippi St. 34
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN