There’s plenty of optimistic data points out there if you look for them, if you happen to be an Alabama fan trying to figure out how to avoid a third loss on the season. There is Kalen DeBoer’s track record against ranked teams, in games coming off a bye week, or facing other top-tier college coaches. All of those numbers favor Alabama.
But games aren’t played on paper and nothing about this game figures to happen in accordance with any kind of script. LSU is in a transition year, and that new coach just happens to be one Lane Kiffin, former Alabama assistant, erstwhile (perhaps) candidate for the Alabama job opening in 2023 and general, all-around Crazy Guy Holding A Play Sheet.
There’s the fact that Alabama has dominated this series historically, and in some decades seems to play better in Baton Rogue than Tuscaloosa. The last time DeBoer led an Alabama team into Baton Rogue, back in 2023, the Crimson Tide played arguably its best game of the year and beat the Tigers 42-28 in a game LSU never really had any kind of control over.
Both teams are coming into this game banged up. Kiffin needs to win to make a statement; Alabama needs to win to keep its championship hopes under its own control.
OFFENSE
Lane Kiffin’s offense draws upon many influences – West Coast, standard pro-set, spread, and increasingly over recent years, RPO-based and quarterback-centric styles. LSU has seen immediate results in 2026, as the Tigers rank 6th in total offense, 7th in passing offense and, perhaps most impressive, 29th in rushing offense having spent the last few years possessing one of the most disappointing running games in the SEC relative to talent. Alabama’s Air Raid derivative ranks 47th overall and 31st in passing offense, and the running game – at 75th nationally – has improved somewhat from a year ago.
QUARTERBACKS
If the day ever comes that Kiffin can no longer find a school willing to employ him as a head coach, he’ll still be able to find work as a quarterback coach for as long as he wants it. Kiffin’s teams never seem to be lacking under center, and that’s mostly because Kiffin is probably the best pure quarterback coach to come down the pike in decades. His star pupil in 2026 is Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt, who has completed 70.3% of his passes for 2,173 yards and 17 touchdowns. If there’s a weak spot in the armor here, it’s that Leavitt has thrown 8 interceptions and has a tendency to stare down targets and ignore patrolling defensive backs. Leavitt is also an accomplished runner, ranking 2nd on the team in rushing with 72 carries for 324 yards (4.5 avg.), which includes yardage lost to sacks, and 8 touchdowns. He’s been banged up here and there, and his backup is Landen Clark, who has struggled in the chances he’s been given. Clark is completing just 43.8% of his throws. Husan Longstreet is also an option here. Alabama will start Keelon Russell, and if Alabama gets the Russell that played the second half of the Texas A&M game, there’s a real case to make for Alabama to have the edge here. Russell played 10 difficult – and “difficult” is being kind – and consecutive quarters but seemed to snap out of it a bit late against the Aggies. His stats are just below those of Leavitt, but in the same ballpark. There’s a pretty good chance Alabama has the edge in backups, as Austin Mack has been better in more opportunities than LSU’s two. Leavitt’s edge in experience makes the Tigers the favored pick here. Advantage: LSU
RUNNING BACKS
LSU found something in Wisconsin transfer Dilin Jones, who with 657 yards on 149 carries (4.4 avg.), has 1 yard more than Alabama’s top two running backs, Daniel Hill and Trae’shawn Brown, combined. Jones isn’t exactly the most explosive of backs, and with only 6 rushing touchdowns, he’s more of a complementary part to the offense than a featured item. But the consistency is there. Backup Harlem Berry has a little more pop, but isn’t as dependable as Jones. Stacy Gage and Caden Durham provide depth. For Alabama, Hill and Brown will get most of the work, but Alabama is also set to get Ezavier Crowell back for this game. Crowell is an absolute homerun threat every time he touches the ball, but he is lacking in pass protection and is dinged up. Kevin Riley might get some work in this one depending on what Crowell’s workload turns out to be. Hill is a good analog for Jones in terms of what he adds to the offense, but Hill is a much bigger back. Both teams depend on their quarterbacks for a chunk of their rushing offense. LSU has just done more up to this point. Advantage: LSU
WIDE RECEIVERS
The entire four-deep of LSU’s depth chart is made up of either 2026 transfers or true freshmen. Jackson Harris (Hawaii), Winston Watkins (Ole Miss) and Eugene Wilson III (Florida) are the leaders of this unit, with Harris the most dangerous. Wilson, in fact, has struggled to make an impact, averaging just at 10 yards per reception with 1 touchdown. Of the backups, Corey Barber is the only one with double-digit catch totals so far. In most cases, Alabama holds serve pretty well with its starting trio of Ryan Coleman-Williams, Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott, then pulls ahead once tight ends Josh Ford, Kaleb Edwards, Marshall Pritchett, Jay Lindsey and Danny Lewis Jr. are added in. But LSU has Trey’Dez Green, and he’s probably the most dynamic tight end in the SEC this year. Zach Grace also makes a fine backup for Green, but the depth chart peels off fairly steeply from there; no other tight end has a catch. Alabama has potentially a better depth situation not just at tight end but also receiver with Derek Meadows, Noah Rogers and Cederian Morgan, but it’s going to come down to Coleman-Williams’ health. If he’s back close to 100 percent, he is no worse than a push with Harris, and Alabama’s second and third receivers and depth are all superior to LSU, while Alabama’s sheer numbers at tight end make Green and Grace still a Tiger edge, but it’s only a slight one. We’re going to give Alabama the benefit of the doubt. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
LSU has better metrics but it’s not by a landslide. The Tigers are second quartile in FBS in sacks allowed (48th), but rank 93rd in tackles for loss allowed and the line overall has been wildly erratic at times. Weston Davis and Jordan Seaton will start at the tackles and Braelin Moore at center. Aliou Bah will start at right guard, while William Satterwhite and Bo Bordelon will split left guard. As mediocre as LSU has been, Alabama has struggled as much or more, particularly lately. The Crimson Tide ranks 119th in sacks allowed and 103rd in tackles for loss allowed. Racin Delgatty is likely back at center this week, though, which should solidify things a good bit. Jayvin James and Jackson Lloyd will start at the tackles and Michael Carroll gets the call at right guard, as usual. Mal Waldrep, who has played in Delgatty’s stead the last two weeks, now moves to left guard to replace Will Sanders, who will miss this game. If Delgatty needs a breather, Waldrep will go back to center with Kaden Strayhorn, who played solidly against Texas A&M when Sanders went down with an injured ankle, playing left guard. With a starter out and another one, Delgatty, still trying to get back to full speed, there’s no way to avoid taking LSU here even with the Tigers’ inconsistencies. Advantage: LSU
DEFENSE
Both teams base from a 4-2-5, with LSU being more traditional in the construction of its defensive front. The Tigers will occasionally bring a third linebacker to the field, but usually in exchange for a nickel back, not a defensive lineman. The Tigers have arguably been better on defense than offense this year, and defensive coordinator Blake Baker is in line for his pick of head coaching jobs this upcoming winter. LSU ranks 4th in total defense, 7th in rushing defense, 14th in raw pass defense, 12th in pass efficiency defense and 16th in scoring defense. It becomes a mystery quickly how this team has two losses on the year. Alabama comes in strong against the run (27th) and respectable in total defense (41st), but the pass defense (87th/68th) needs to continue to improve; the performance against Texas A&M was a good start.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama likely gets DT Terrance Green back for this game, which will help immensely. When Green is in the game, Kedrick Bingley-Jones and Devan Thompkins are completely different players. London Simmons, Isaia Faga and Edric Hill add to the depth chart at tackle, while Fatutoa Henry, who exploded onto the scene against Texas A&M, will back up Thompkins at Bandit. Alabama ranks 37th in sacks and 74th in tackles for loss; LSU ranks 2nd and 10th in those two categories. Princewill Umanmielen and Jordan Ross will start at the defensive ends, with Deuce Geralds, Malik Blocton and Stephiylan Green getting most of the work at tackle. LSU will be without key contributor Richard Anderson, who was a 340-pound load at tackle. Umanmielen leads both teams with 8.5 sacks, but Ross and Geralds have added 5 each for LSU. For Alabama, Henry shares the lead with LB Yhonzae Pierre at 3.5 each, but Alabama seems to get pressure from different/additional spots more often. We believe the addition of Green will pull these categories back a lot closer than it might otherwise look, particularly with Alabama being able to use Thompkins more in line with his usage earlier in the season when Green was healthy. But LSU still has the edge. Advantage: LSU
LINEBACKERS
Health costs LSU this category, because both Whit Weeks and Zach Weeks are unlikely to play. That leaves LSU very thin here, with T.J. Dottery and Davhon Keys starting, and only Tylen Singleton really being able to spell either player. Dottery leads the team in tackles with 60, and he’s reasonably effective at making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Keys has done a good job replacing Whit Weeks after his injury, and while he isn’t as consistent as Dottery, he has more of a knack for the big play. Alabama will start Caleb Woodson and Luke Metz inside, with Yhonzae Pierre coming off the edge. Alabama seems to have all of its major parts back for this game, which include Justin Hill and Jah-Marien Latham outside and Xavier Griffin and Q.B. Reese coming off the bench inside. Alabama remains without Desmond Umeozulu backing up Pierre, but there’s no question which of these two teams is being more impacted by the injury sheet. Even with LSU’s injuries, this is another close category; Alabama’s depth is what makes the difference. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Getting Zabien Brown back at cornerback certainly can’t hurt Alabama, although Dijon Lee Jr. stepped up against Texas A&M and played probably his best game of the year. With Brown back, Alabama can be more targeted in how it uses Chuck McDonald; McDonald played fantastically against Texas A&M at both corner and nickel safety. Carmelo O’Neal also did a good job filling in for Brown at corner. Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb and Rydarrius Morgan make up the safety trio, although Ivan Taylor seems to be getting more work each week in Sabb’s slot. Despite the injuries and ever-rotating depth chart against A&M – made worse when Morgan was ejected for targeting – Alabama may have turned a corner against the Aggies. LSU, though, has played extremely well in the back end. Alabama ranks 5th in interceptions, but LSU ranks 35th and is no slouch at turning teams over. D.J. Pickett and P.J. Woodland will start at the corners, with Tamarcus Cooley, Ty Benefield and Jhase Thomas the safety trio. Alabama can possibly put pressure on Thomas, a freshman who replaced the injured Dashawn Spears in the third game of the year and who hasn’t shown himself yet to be a consistent playmaker. Thomas’ backup is another freshman, Isaiah Washington, who has yet to record a tackle. Alabama is probably better than its rankings, and LSU’s secondary has the benefit of working behind a very good defensive line that can apply pressure, but the gap in numbers is too much to ignore. Advantage: LSU
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nothing is going particularly well for LSU here, and it’s really the only category on the board that is an overwhelming edge to either team. Despite Grant Chadwick’s resume coming into the year, he is averaging below 40 yards per punt and LSU ranks 126th in net punting. The return game is terrible; punt returns are 65th and kickoff returns are 98th. LSU hasn’t covered kicks well, either: 95th in kickoff return defense, 88th in punt return defense. The only solid performer has been PK Scott Starzyk, an Arkansas transfer who is 9-of-11 (81.8%) on field goals, but one of the misses was on a chip shot. Alabama has gotten solid performances from PK Conor Talty and P Alex Asparuhov, but where Alabama really makes its hay here is in kick coverage (5th in kickoff return defense, 11th in punt return defense). Alabama has struggled in punt returns (94th), but that figures to get better with the return of Ryan Coleman-Williams. Alabama has done very well in kickoff returns (30th) thanks to Dijon Lee. Lorcan Quinn is nearly an automatic touchback as a kickoff specialist. As we’ve said a couple of times in categories in which Alabama has trailed, LSU is probably not as bad as the numbers say, but when the numbers are this far apart, you can’t give them the benefit of the doubt. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
LSU leads in five categories, Alabama in three, and two of the categories in which Alabama leads (WR, LB) are virtual toss-ups. As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines hold an edge over the opponent’s offensive line; the gap is much bigger when it’s LSU’s DL against Alabama’s OL, however.
This is a bad matchup on paper for Alabama, especially once we take into account something we haven’t focused on yet in this piece, red zone offense/defense. Alabama’s red zone offense isn’t bad at 41st, but the Crimson Tide has been one of the least effective teams in red zone defense (134th) in FBS. LSU, meanwhile, is 36th in red zone offense and 17th in red zone defense.
The other major concern for Alabama is the health of its offense – meaning the system, not necessarily the individual players in it – and especially its running game. Alabama can’t be one-dimensional and beat LSU. The last time Alabama came to Baton Rouge, QB Jalen Milroe picked that night to explode on the LSU defense, especially on scrambles, and there was too much balance and too many issues for LSU to get its arms around all at once.
There is a path, potentially multiple paths, for victory here for Alabama, but the Crimson Tide is going to have to play its most complete game of the year. In our preseason preview on Alabama, we picked the Crimson Tide to lose two games, Georgia and LSU. We changed our Georgia pick in the week leading up to that game; we won’t do the same thing here. Alabama has to prove it.
LSU 30
Alabama 23
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN