Texas A&M preview: Suddenly, a game Alabama can’t afford to lose

It isn’t necessarily that Alabama comes into this game losing in back-to-back weeks to Georgia and Tennessee; it’s in the way those losses happened.

Alabama looked physically overwhelmed at times in both contests. Yet it led Georgia at the half and had pulled to within 2 points of Tennessee at halftime, only to wilt away – especially in Knoxville – in each game down the stretch.

Now Alabama finds itself in a must-win situation, not just for its playoff hopes, but in regard to the fact that it just needs something good to happen for a change. Quarterback Keelon Russell needs to look like the Keelon Russell of the first five games of the season again. And Kalen DeBoer needs a rebound win in a major way; otherwise, the traditional four-year evaluation period for head coaches in Tuscaloosa might begin to pick up acceleration.

Texas A&M is having its own issues. The offense is dysfunctional, thanks to some of the worst quarterback play we’ve seen from a so-called contender in this conference in many a year. The defense has struggled to create negative plays and put opposing offenses behind the sticks. Head coach Mike Elko, who has a weird mix of very vocal supporters and equally-bellicose detractors, is himself coaching with an eye over his shoulder, watching the approaching freight train of fan anger.

OFFENSE

The Aggie offense is a fairly standard one-back, three-wide pro-style attack, although it has an expanded QB run component. The offensive coordinator is former Alabama assistant Holman Wiggins, who was light in playcalling experience going into this season and who is greatly under fire at the moment. Texas A&M ranks 97^th in total offense, 63^rd in rushing, 103^rd in passing and 70^th in scoring offense. Overall output has been sketchy, and of the last five games, only a 34-7 win over Arkansas generated any kind of praise for execution within the system. Twice, the Aggies have been held below 10 points in a conference game. Alabama’s last two weeks, though, were as bad as its first five weeks were good. From its Air Raid-style attack, Alabama has fallen to 51^st in total offense, 60^th in rushing and 47^th in passing. All facets of the Crimson Tide’s attack seem to have fallen off in unison.

QUARTERBACKS
Marcel Reed was expected to possibly contend for Heisman Trophy consideration this year, and was certainly expected to build upon a 2025 season that saw him throw for 3,169 yards and run for another 493. But that was with Collin Klein as offensive coordinator, and the transition from Klein to Wiggins has not gone smoothly. Reed is 112-of-201 (55.7%) on the year for 1,227 yards, 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. His rushing numbers have also fallen off, down to 175 yards on 54 carries (3.2 avg.), which includes yardage lost to sacks, and 2 touchdowns. The struggles have been so bad that redshirt freshman Brady Hart may get a look in this game early on. Hart is 12-of-21 (57.1%) for 143 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception as Reed’s backup. He’s carried twice for 8 yards. Alabama will start Keelon Russell, who is coming off two tough games in a row and needs a fast start in this one. Russell’s numbers far eclipse those of Reed, and Alabama also has the superior backup in Austin Mack. Confidence isn’t high that either team’s quarterback will deliver at peak levels, but regardless, Russell is the better option. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Texas A&M will use as many as four running backs, and each has a skillset that works well with the other three. Reuben Owens II will most likely start, although K.J. Edwards is the team’s leading rusher despite being listed third on the depth chart. Owens is a big-bodied inside threat, while Edwards weighs less than 200 pounds and relies on quickness and speed. The other two likely contributors are Jamarion Morrow, whose game is similar to that of Edwards, and Owens clone Carsyn Baker. Owens, Baker and Morrow all average 4.1 yards per carry, an impressive stat of symmetry if nothing else, but Edwards has homerun ability and is averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Alabama will rely on Daniel Hill and Trae’shawn Brown primarily in this game, as E.J. Crowell is hurt and likely not available. Akylin Dear and Kevin Riley might also get some action in this game depending on the circumstances but with Crowell likely out, Alabama’s big hitter is sidelined. We’re back to sort of not knowing what to believe about Alabama’s running game, although we think the talent is there. A&M just does it better. Advantage: Texas A&M

WIDE RECEIVERS
Injuries are affecting both teams; Alabama will be without Ryan Coleman-Williams, while Texas A&M will most likely be without Mario Craver. Neither team has a lot of functional depth, so any absences will be felt. For Texas A&M, no Craver in the slot means T.K. Norman likely gets a start next to Alabama transfer Isaiah Horton and Ashton Bethel-Roman, although Bethel-Roman is also questionable. Aaron Gregory, a true freshman, becomes the only real backup, as Terry Bussey and Kelshaun Johnson are also out for this game. Another true freshman, Jayden Warren, is the only other available receiver to have caught a pass this year. At tight end, Houston Thomas, Micah Riley, Richie Anderson and Kiotti Armstrong will rotate. Thomas has 9 receptions on the year, but no one has really stepped up to claim the spot. Alabama will start Rico Scott and Lotzeir Brooks with most likely Derek Meadows in Coleman-Williams’ place, but the question is whether Noah Rogers will be healthy enough to contribute. Meadows is more of a small tight end than a straight-up replacement for Coleman-Williams. Cederian Morgan, Tyler Henderson and M.J. Chirgwin are the other options here, but Alabama struggled against Tennessee without its top target. Where Alabama maintains a healthy advantage is at tight end, where the group of Josh Ford, Kaleb Edwards, Marshall Pritchett, Jay Lindsey and Danny Lewis Jr. give Alabama uncommon depth. Horton is a major threat in the red zone, but both Scott and Brooks are better than Texas A&M’s current second option and the edge at tight end cinches it. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Texas A&M has done a fair job up front, ranking 27^th in tackles for loss allowed and 70^th in sacks allowed. It isn’t a flashy group, but the offense’s problems are more structural than line-dependent. Both teams will be without a starter this week; for Texas A&M, that’s left guard Blake Ivy. Mark Nabou will start at center, and Tyree Adams at left tackle, with Trovon Baugh, Tyler Thomas, Alabama transfer Wilkin Formby and Lamont Rogers mixing up the other three spots between them. Baugh is listed as questionable for this game as well. For Alabama, center Racin Delgatty has been moved to questionable status this week from purely listed as “out,” but we still expect Mal Waldrep Jr. to get the start at center, with Delgatty possibly trying to play if Waldrep struggles. Will Sanders and Michael Carroll will start at the guards, with Jayvin James and Jackson Lloyd at the tackles. Alabama ranks 129^th in sacks allowed and 112^th in tackles for loss allowed, which is an alarming fall-off since the first of the year and points to the importance of a healthy Delgatty. With metrics like that, there’s no way Alabama can lead this category. Advantage: Texas A&M

DEFENSE

Texas A&M calls its defense “multiple” but in most all cases, the Aggies are running from a 4-2-5 base like Alabama. What is curious is how the Aggies have struggled to create negative plays for opponents, while also being soft against the run. Texas A&M ranks 71^st in rush defense (Alabama is 29^th), but the Aggies rank 10^th in raw pass defense and 27^th in scoring defense. Pass efficiency defense has struggled, though, at 61^st overall. Still, those numbers best Alabama, at least in pass defense; the Crimson Tide ranks 101^st in raw pass defense and 77^th in pass efficiency defense, and 53^rd overall (Texas A&M is 28^th in total defense).

DEFENSIVE LINE
Texas A&M has just 5 sacks on the year, an astonishingly poor number and one that observers expressed concerns about in most preseason analyses. The Aggies are 135^th out of 138 teams in sacks, and rank just 97^th in tackles for loss. In addition, DT D.J. Hicks and DE Anto Saka are both likely to miss the game, making it that much harder to create an impact. C.J. Mims will start at one of the tackle spots, with the other going to either Landon Rink or Brandon Davis-Swain. Angelo McCollum will provide depth at both inside positions. T.J. Searcy and Marco Jones will start at the ends, and they have 3 of the team’s 5 sacks between them. Sam M’Pemba and Bryce Perry-Wright will back up the edges with Saka out. Other than Searcy, who occasionally flashes in the backfield, there isn’t anyone in particular that Alabama should really focus upon to the exclusion of others. Hicks is the only player with more than 2 QB hurries, and he’s likely out. For Alabama, it will again come down to mostly London Simmons and Kedrick Bingley-Jones at tackle, as Terrance Green will miss this game. That means another week of the smallish Isaia Faga and Edric Hill being the top reserves available, although one has to think Steve Mboumoua or Mhari Johnson is in line for playing time at some point. The bigger issue by far was going to be at end, where Devan Thompkins was almost the only available player with any experience. Fatutoa Henry is now expected to be available as his backup, but Alabama may have to deploy Jah-Marien Latham there, or use a down-the-depth-chart player like Caleb Smith in a pinch. Alabama ranks 25^th in sacks and 77^th in tackles for loss, and with both teams missing key players, we’re going to fall back to the stats. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Noah Mikhail and Tulsa transfer Ray Coney are the Aggies’ top two tacklers, but they’ve combined for only 3.5 tackles for loss and neither has recorded a sack. They operate more as collectors than as leverage points in this defense, which is not exactly what a 4-2-5 scheme needs from its two inside backers. Alabama’s Caleb Woodson and Luke Metz have been far more impactful in the Tide’s scheme, both in coverage and against the run. All four players have similar size/speed makeup, so it’s just a question of talent. Comparing the two teams is a bit tougher because Alabama will use Yhonzae Pierre and Justin Hill in different ways at the Wolf position than Texas A&M uses its roster, which is to say the Aggies employ two more traditional ends. Pierre has been banged up a bit but is still going at it, and Hill’s return should allow Alabama to use Jah-Marien Latham in ways that doesn’t expose his lack of speed. Xavier Griffin is the most intriguing of the ILB backups on either team, but he’s still a true freshman. Both teams are competent here, but Alabama is capable of making more negative-impact plays. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
The secondary was expected to be both teams’ strong suits this year – and it’s happened that way, at least for Texas A&M. Not so much for Alabama, which has struggled in coverage and now must play this game likely without CB Zabien Brown. Without Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. will have to go the full game and Carmelo O’Neal will have to play most of the downs opposite him, rather than instead of him. That leaves true freshman Zyan Gibson as the only completely healthy backup – Jorden Edmonds may or may not be ready to go; we’re not sure – with a walk-on, Walter Sansing, as the only other rostered cornerback who regularly dresses out. Nickel safeties Chuck McDonald and Rydarrius Morgan have both worked at cornerback in practice before, and would likely play before Sansing does, but Gibson will probably have a role this week. For now, the safety trio will be Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb in addition to Morgan, but if McDonald has to move to corner, we will see more of Ivan Taylor, Dre Kirkpatrick Jr., Jireh Edwards and Zavier Mincey in this game. Texas A&M will start Julio Humphrey and Alabama transfer Dezz Ricks at the corners, with Dalton Brooks, Marcus Ratcliffe and Jordan Shaw at the safeties. If there’s any hope for Alabama in the back end, it’s that Alabama ranks 5^th in interceptions while Texas A&M is at 51^st. Alabama may have the greater big-play potential, but health and consistency are much more present on the Aggie side of things. Advantage: Texas A&M

SPECIAL TEAMS
David Olano is a perfect 11-of-11 on field goals, including 4-for-4 from beyond 50 yards. The Aggies also rank 2^nd nationally in net punting behind a 49.7 yards-per-kick average from Tyler White. The problem for Texas A&M are the return and coverage units. The Aggies rank 18^th in punt return defense, which you’d expect given what White is doing, but the rest of the unit needs improvement. Texas A&M ranks 63^rd in punt returns, an abysmal 136^th in kickoff returns, and also struggles in kickoff return defense (107^th). Alabama has been strong in the kicking game with Conor Talty, and in the punting unit with Alex Asparuhov. Alabama ranks just 92^nd in punt returns and it’s hard to imagine things being better without Ryan Coleman-Williams available, but Alabama does rank 24^th in kickoff returns and excels in both punt return defense (19^th) and kickoff return defense (11^th). The kickers themselves are an edge to Texas A&M, but it’s only by degrees, and Alabama is stronger in the other aspects. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in five categories, Texas A&M in three. None of the category edges are by wide margins other than defensive back, where A&M leads. We believe the quarterback comparison has the potential to be lopsided as well, but we’re unsure about where Keelon Russell’s development is at the moment. As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, we actually like Alabama by the slimmest of margins with its OL against the Aggie DL, and by a slightly greater margin with its DL going against a weakened Texas A&M OL.

What this says, flatly, is that Alabama should win this game by a couple of scores, and if it doesn’t, evaluators need to be looking at the finer points of this team and trying to figure out how and when the gears slipped. We understand the concerns over injuries, probably more so than most analysts like to admit, and both of these teams have significant injury concerns this week. But Alabama is simply the better team here, and quite frankly, needs to play like it.

The two ways Texas A&M can win this game is if we’ve either badly underestimated the quality of the Aggie defensive line, or if QB Marcel Reed is on the Stephen Garcia plan this week. Alabama’s secondary also needs to play above its head this week, especially with Brown either out altogether, or far short of 100 percent. At worst, we think this is a game in which Alabama slowly pulls away to a comfortable margin.

Alabama 34
Texas A&M 20

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN