Prior to Alabama’s 2025 season-opening loss to the Florida State Seminoles, Alabama was being viewed as a fringe national championship contender.
Sixty minutes in Tallahassee changed that, and for a brief period of time, FSU’s Mike Norvell looked like the guy Alabama should have hired instead of Kalen DeBoer, especially since the rumor mill at the time put Norvell down as Alabama’s backup choice anyway.
Flash forward a year and a couple of weeks, and my, how things have changed.
Florida State athletic director Michael Alford, the man who gave Norvell a rich contract, was fired after a troubled week that saw the Seminoles lose to SMU. While the Mustangs were and are a ranked team, FSU was listless in its performance, and the general consensus about the Seminole program is that it is doing nothing particularly well.
Alabama, meanwhile, is resurgent. Alabama has opened the 2026 season with two solid wins in a row, including a come-from-behind whipping of Kentucky on the road last week that checked a lot of boxes for Alabama wins: A win after trailing at the half = check. A game won in the trenches = check. A big win on the road in the SEC = check.
Discussion in Tallahassee now centers on how long Norvell remains head coach. The betting favorite is this Sunday. But the Seminoles do still have plenty of talent on hand, including a running game that probably bests Alabama’s and a defense led by coordinator Tony White, who absolutely shut down the Crimson Tide a year ago. Is Florida State good enough to challenge Alabama? Under the right circumstances, yes. Are the Seminoles good enough to actually win in Tuscaloosa? Probably not.
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OFFENSE
Mike Norvell is again the offensive coordinator here, this time in partnership with Tim Harris Jr. Harris was connected at the hip to Gus Malzahn, who Norvell brought in to coordinate the 2025 FSU offense, probably not coincidentally due to the fact that Malzahn had given Alabama so much trouble over the years while at Auburn.
At the beginning of 2025, it looked like the partnership would work; Malzahn led a team to yet another win over Alabama, but opponents began figuring things out around the second month of the year and Florida State went 2-7 to close the season, with Malzahn getting the heave-ho. Harris was with Malzahn at Central Florida and borrows a lot of concepts from him, but Norvell is the real architect now, and the marriage of two styles looks stilted. FSU currently ranks 94th in total offense, 39th in rushing and 120th in passing, which isn’t making anyone happy. There’s still a lot of tempo and motion thanks to the Malzahn influence, but Norvell would like to get downfield more in the passing game.
Alabama comes into this game ranked 65th in total offense, 48th in rushing and 77th in passing out of its Air Raid-flavored offense that now features a heavy zone rushing concept.
QUARTERBACKS
The “former Auburn” tag applies not just to coaches, but now also to Florida State’s quarterback, Ashton Daniels. The Seminoles largely struck out in the transfer portal following the 2025 season before bringing in Daniels, who has been average at best in his career up to this point. For the season, Daniels is completing just 58.0% of his passes for an average of less than 170 yards per game. He is the team’s second-leading rusher, however, and is a dual-threat player that can turn something into nothing off scrambles. Redshirt freshman Kevin Sperry is the backup, and he played in three games last year with pretty decent numbers, but hasn’t been asked to do anything in a truly big game.
Alabama will start Keelon Russell, who is still a bit of a work in progress, but his passing numbers, QBR and general level of dangerousness all far exceed that of Daniels. Like Daniels, Russell will make plays with his feet, both on called runs and scrambles. Alabama has the strong edge in depth, as Austin Mack gives Alabama a rare asset off the bench – an experienced backup with A+ arm talent. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
The one true weapon Florida State has, that every opponent has to respect, is Ousmane Kromah. Kromah already has 231 yards in 2 games and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry, with 2 scores. He’s a big back at 6’1” and about 220 pounds, with good speed. FSU also has excellent depth in the form of Samuel Singleton and Quintrevion Wisner, who have combined for 20 carries for 100 yards (5.0 avg.) and 1 touchdown. Wisner, a Texas transfer, piled up 1,734 yards with the Longhorns prior to joining the Seminoles.
Alabama’s rushing offense has reawakened and the Crimson Tide probably has the edge in overall depth, especially if this turns out to be the week that Akylin Dear comes back to the team after rehabbing a leg injury. The core of the unit – Daniel Hill, Ezavier Crowell and Trae’shawn Brown, with help from Kevin Riley – has already put up solid numbers so far in 2026, and Dear was expected to be somewhat of a co-starter with Hill according to Tide staff. There may not be as much difference here as it first appears, even with Kromah’s status as a true star at the position, but we still need more week-to-week evidence from Alabama that the problem has been fixed. Advantage: Florida State
WIDE RECEIVERS
The Seminoles bring a solid starting group, led by Duce Robinson, with Micahi Danzy and Jayvan Boggs rounding out the unit. But the team’s leading receiver is a running back, Samuel Singleton, which points more to Ashton Daniels’ limitations as a downfield passer. Robinson is the guy that scares everyone here – he’s 6’6” and 230 pounds, and even Alabama’s big cornerbacks are going to find him a hard cover. Boggs is also a physical presence at 6’1”, 210 and Danzy has good height; this will be an excellent test of Alabama’s secondary leading into the meat of the SEC schedule. The weak spot in this unit is probably tight end, where East Carolina transfer Desirrio Riles is undersized – and by that we mean he is shorter and smaller than Duce Robinson – and has just 2 catches for 9 yards so far on the year.
Alabama will counter with Ryan Coleman-Williams, Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott, with Derek Meadows and Cederian Morgan coming off the bench. Noah Rogers is now close enough to a potential return that we’re going to mention him every week until we see him in a game. The tight end group – and it’s more appropriately labeled a “pack” – has been a key to the success of the Alabama running game and is starting to get more involved in the passing game. Kaleb Edwards, Marshall Pritchett, Danny Lewis Jr., Josh Ford and Jay Lindsey all bring something to the table. The stats aren’t bad for FSU’s receivers, and there’s no question how much potential Robinson has to affect games. But Alabama’s receivers have found a way to produce more catches, and the tight end position is especially an edge to the Tide. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Four of the five starters for Florida State were playing somewhere else a year ago. That’s not necessarily rare in today’s college football, but FSU isn’t making it work like other schools are. Florida State ranks 76th in sacks allowed and 84th in tackles for loss allowed, and while those numbers are better on paper than Alabama (102nd, 107th), there have been too many pressures allowed in pass protection and the inability to convert on third down (102nd) feeds back to average-at-best line play.
Purdue transfer Bradyn Welch-Joiner will start at center, with Auburn transfer Xavier Chaplin and Stephen F. Austin transfer Chimdia Nwaiwu at the tackles. Bowling Green transfer Nate Pabst starts at right guard, with the lone holdover, Andre Otto, moving from a backup role to the starting left guard spot. Size and height aren’t the problem here, with the possible exception of Nwaiwu at right tackle; it’s technique, athleticism and a lack of continuity across the group.
Alabama will start Racin Delgatty at center, Jackson Lloyd and Jayvin James at the tackles, and should see the return of Michael Carroll at right guard, which would allow Will Sanders to go back into competition for the left guard spot with Mal Waldrep. Alabama is still cleaning things up after a barely functional 2025 campaign, but Florida State has arguably more issues at the moment. Advantage: Alabama
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DEFENSE
Florida State’s 3-1-3 front alignment, which features a true strongside linebacker but also a roving defenive end who can insert across the formation, gave Alabama fits a year ago. Defensive coordinator Tony White got off to a solid start before running into some headwinds in the middle of the season, but by and large the Seminole defense was not the problem. This year, though, the Seminoles are finding things to be tough going. They rank 128th in total defense out of 138 teams, 54th against the run, 136th in raw pass defense and 119th in pass efficiency defense. It’s a curious problem given that this is a veteran secondary with a lot of starts in Tallahassee under their belts. Alabama’s 4-2-5 Swarm scheme has become the source of a lot of film breakdowns recently, thanks to an aggressive pressure package upgrade up front, a solid line and a secondary no one was expecting to penetrate in the first place.
DEFENSIVE LINE
If you want to know why these two teams are on opposite courses, you should probably start here. The starting Seminole line of Daniel Lyons at nosetackle, Mandrell Desir at off tackle and Darryll Desir at defensive end have not produced. There are no tackles for loss, no sacks and no QB pressures awarded to any of them so far, which is borderline impossible for a school like FSU. The second line – NT Kevin Wynn, DT Deante McCray, DE Deamontae Diggs – has combined for 1 sack and 1 QB hurry. The Jack spot – which FSU classifies as a defensive end rather than a linebacker – is where Rylan Kennedy starts; he has a sack to add to the production, but only 2 tackles through 2 games total. Same for his backup, Jalen Anderson. Overall, FSU ranks 80th in sacks and 101st in tackles for loss, which are terrible numbers anyway but made even more glaring by the fact that the defensive line basically isn’t participating.
Alabama will start Terrance Green and Kedrick Bingley-Jones at tackle, with Devan Thompkins being a complete force of nature at the Bandit hybrid end position. Alabama ranks 11th in sacks and 59th in tackles for loss. Isaia Faga and London Simmons provide depth inside along with Steve Mboumoua, while Desmond Umeozulu and Fatutoa Henry back up the outside. There is production all up and down Alabama’s depth chart. This one isn’t particularly close. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
The Seminoles shook up the starting lineup a bit here, with Southern Miss transfer Chris Jones the new middle linebacker and Omar Graham taking over for Blake Nichelson at weakside linebacker, with Nichelson moving to strongside. Jones has been everything advertised, but the rest of the unit haven’t really looked like playmakers yet. Caleb Levallee and Mikai Gbayor provide depth outside.
Alabama hit gold with its transfer, Caleb Woodson, and the other spot, manned mostly by Luke Metz and Q.B. Reese, has been highly productive as well. Alabama’s best player overall may be its Wolf linebacker, Yhonzae Pierre, who will be the best pass rusher on the field by a fair margin except possibly for his own teammate, Devan Thompkins. Duke Johnson, Abduall Sanders and Xavier Griffin provide depth inside, while Justin Hill and Jah-Marien Latham will back up Pierre. The matchup of Jones vs. Woodson will be interesting to watch, but Alabama holds big edges at the other positions. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
We’re not sure what’s going on in the back end of the Seminole defense, but it isn’t positive production. Florida State has struggled in coverage and run support both, even though Ja’Bril Rawls returns at corner and Ashlynd Barker at rover safety. The rest of the starting group consists of Illinois State transfer C.J. Richard and Duke transfer Ma’Khi Jones at safety – both are a bit undersized for the roles – while senior career reserve Quindarrius Jones starts opposite Rawls at cornerback. With the exception of backup safety Karson Hobbs, all of Florida State’s defensive back transfers came from small schools.
Alabama will start Zabien Brown and Dijon Lee Jr. at corner, Rydarrius Morgan at the nickel safety spot and Keon Sabb and Bray Hubbard at the high safeties. True freshman Jireh Edwards got his first action for Alabama last week and looked like a human torpedo coming on blitzes. Like the defensive line, there is very little in common between these two groups. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Florida State’s special teams have struggled in coverage (52nd in punt coverage, 96th in kickoff return defense), but rank 21st in net punting and the return game has been solid on both kickoffs and punts. Gabe Panikowski has hit all three of his field goal tries, and all came from long distance. Daniel Hughes is a solid punter. This is as close as Florida State is going to get to a second category win this week, but Alabama ranks 9th in punt return defense, basically doesn’t allow kickoff returns with Lorcan Quinn hitting most of them into the stands, and has had good kicking performances from Alex Asparuhov (punts) and Conor Talty (placement kicks). The return game could be better; Bama is mid-pack in both. The Crimson Tide leads the nation in net punting. At least the Seminoles have confirmed competency here. Advantage: Alabama
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OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, Florida State in one. But Alabama might be close enough to challenge FSU’s lead at running back, while special teams seems to be the only place the Seminoles are likely to pick up an additional category lead. As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama’s DL leads by a mismatch margin against the Florida State OL, while the Alabama OL should be able to control the Florida State defensive line. It’s been awhile since we’ve been able to say that about the Tide offensive line.
If you’re looking for places Florida State can hurt Alabama, it really boils down to two things, red zone offense and turnover margin. The Seminoles lead the nation in red zone offense, but have had trouble getting into scoring position. FSU ranks 15th in turnover margin; Ashton Daniels might not be a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, but he hasn’t made a lot of critical errors this year, either.
It’s still young in the season for statistical breakdowns, but what is clear is that these are two programs headed in very different directions. Mike Norvell must win this game to save his job and even then, it just forestalls what is likely the inevitable swinging of the axe at some point later in the year. Florida State would have to show massive improvement in this game to be able to consider an upset; Alabama simply needs to continue to improve incrementally in the running game and develop Keelon Russell’s immense skillset.
If Alabama can do both of those things, it should get the revenge it seeks, and send Mike Norvell packing besides.
Alabama 35
Florida State 17
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