2025 Record: 106-22 (82.8%)
Welcome once again to our weekly SEC Preview and Predictions piece, and the Predictions Dept. is coming off a strong 2025 season that saw us post an 82.8% win rate despite having to navigate the troubled waters of transfer portals and cartoonish roster rules, not to mention what was an expansion of the SEC into a 16-team league. This year features more of the same in regard to roster issues and, depending on the court order of the week, perhaps by midseason, Joe Namath can join Alabama’s quarterback room.
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NORTH ALABAMA at ARKANSAS
Look out Arkansas, you’re playing an undefeated team. UNA opened its season by beating FCS Samford 22-10 in Huntsville, as the Lions continue their march up the NCAA’s divisional ladder. Arkansas is the SEC’s most vulnerable team, at least at this early stage in the season, as a new coaching staff is in place but the offseason portal haul isn’t going to scare anyone. It still should make for a soft place to land, with North Alabama as the opponent, but one never knows when there’s been this much change taking place all at once.
Arkansas 41
UNA 7
EAST CAROLINA at ALABAMA
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BAYLOR vs. AUBURN (at Atlanta, Ga.)
Auburn gets a surprisingly interesting opening game here, as Dave Aranda is fighting for his job, and the Bears need to atone for several disappointing efforts in 2025, some of which were the fault of the defense – Aranda’s specialty. Auburn has optimism on its side, as the Hugh Freeze era finally came to a merciful end, but Auburn is like several other schools in that a major chunk of the 2026 roster hasn’t played together yet. It’s going to take some time to get the engine firing on all cylinders, but the total talent level on the plains is still higher than what Baylor is bringing to Atlanta. That this game rated a neutral-site assignment is somewhat curious, but if nothing else it will serve as an immediate statement game on two coaching staffs currently heading in opposite directions.
Auburn 27
Baylor 17
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at FLORIDA
The Gators learned all to well the risks of playing smaller in-state schools in 2025, when a Week 2 loss to South Florida almost closed the book on then-coach Billy Napier immediately, and eventually led to both his dismissal and USF head coach Alex Golesh rising to the top of Auburn’s wish list. There’s considerably less risk in playing Florida Atlantic, which went 4-8 in 2025, had no true quality wins and has loads of questions on defense. The Owls’ one saving grace is that it returns a majority of its starters from a year ago, which in the day of the transfer portal is either a small miracle, or evidence that your starters were so bad, no one else wanted them. The Gators are beginning a ground-up refurbishment of the program, but even that won’t stop Jon Sumrall from getting his first win in Gainesville.
Florida 44
FAU 10
TENNESSEE STATE at GEORGIA
The only thing faster than a Georgia player behind the wheel of a car is how fast this game is going to get out of hand.
Georgia 59
Tennessee St. 0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE at KENTUCKY
Long gone are the days of Jim Tressel coaching YSU and being a real threat to knock off FBS opponents. Kentucky can’t completely take a breather here; Youngstown State went 8-5 a year ago and historically has proven to be a tough out for bigger teams, but if Kentucky – even under the guidance of a first-year head coach in Will Stein – is having problems with this level of competition, things aren’t likely to get much smoother in successive weeks. This one bears watching just to see what kind of grip Stein appears to have on being a head coach at a large program.
Kentucky 37
Youngstown St. 14
CLEMSON at LOUISIANA STATE
This one looked like a clear LSU edge a couple of weeks ago, and then the Tiger program and Lane Kiffin decided to become the standard-bearers for challenging rules regarding signing former professional players to college rosters. LSU is still the better team here, and Kiffin is a much better coach for the modern game than the career-in-repose Dabo Swinney, but there’s no question which program looks more stable and drama-free right now, and it isn’t the boys from Baton Rouge. Were this game being played elsewhere, we might be inclined to take Clemson in an upset, but we’re going to bet on LSU finding some way to pull it together before kickoff. Kiffin seems to thrive in chaos and … well, chaos is what he’s got.
LSU 34
Clemson 27
LOUISVILLE vs. MISSISSIPPI (at Nashville, Tenn.)
Louisville appears to be slightly ascendant as a program and it’s going to give Pete Golding his first true test since taking over as the full-time head coach in Oxford. The game is being played in Nashville, probably an unnecessary conveyance away from either of these two teams’ home fields; the global interest simply isn’t enough to warrant it. But it does affect the comfort factor for the Rebels somewhat, and Golding can either use that to his ultimate advantage in bigger games later in the year, or get upset here and burn through all of his good will in 60 minutes.
Ole Miss 40
Louisville 31
LOUISIANA-MONROE at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mississippi State has one of the hardest Week 2 games to pick, as the Bulldogs are traveling to Minnesota. This week, though, they have one of those games that if they lose it, the season derails completely before it ever gets out of the station house. Head coach Jeff Lebby is on a generally upward track, but he doesn’t have the full support of the Bulldog fan base just yet, and needs to put away games like this one in drama-free fashion.
Mississippi St. 45
La.-Monroe 17
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF at MISSOURI
Not much to look at here; Missouri should roll in this game, as the Tigers have enough program stability as to not fall victim to lopsided Week 1 upsets.
Missouri 52
UAPB 7
TEXAS-EL PASO at OKLAHOMA
UTEP was one of the worst teams in FBS last year and return no offensive starters, with most of the Miners’ hopes being pinned on an FCS transfer at quarterback. That alone should tell you how this one is likely to go. All told the UTEP defense held on admirably for a lot of 2025 before running out of gas at the end, and a big chunk of that defensive production returns. But Oklahoma still should be able to win this game even if it started its reserves and kept the starters on the bench.
Oklahoma 45
UTEP 10
KENT STATE at SOUTH CAROLINA
If you’re looking for an Upset Special pick in Week 1, this might actually be it. Kent State was one of the most improved programs in the country in 2025 and returns a majority of its offensive starters, led by one of the best quarterbacks from a non-power conference, Dru DeShields. The Golden Flashes played with a lot of heart in 2025 and are expected to compete for a bowl slot this year. South Carolina can’t just put it on autopilot out of the gate and not pay attention.
South Carolina 38
Kent St. 27
FURMAN at TENNESSEE
Tennessee’s quarterback room probably needs this kind of game for an opener, but it’s also a game unlikely to produce any relevant information that could be applied to the rest of the 2026 schedule.
Tennessee 49
Furman 7
TEXAS STATE at TEXAS
Texas State is in the PAC-12 this year. We’ll leave you to think about that one for a moment while we also point out this was a bowl team a year ago that returns a lot of production on both sides of the ball and has one of the fastest-rising young head coaches, G.J. Kinne, in FBS right now. If Texas’ quarterback situation is once again sliding into a morass, as has been suggested during fall camp days, this one could get uncomfortably close.
Texas 38
Texas State 20
MISSOURI STATE at TEXAS A&M
This is Missouri State’s first year as an FBS program and this is a heck of a welcome game. Nothing like heading to Kyle Field to get properly introduced to this level than by a SEC team with a penchant for physical play.
Texas A&M 47
Missouri State 9
AUSTIN PEAY at VANDERBILT
We’ll see how good Vanderbilt really is in the coming weeks. In this game, all we’re going to see is Vanderbilt mash a small school to bits.
Vanderbilt 51
Austin Peay 7
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