2026 SEC Fall Previews: Tier IV [Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Arkansas]

13. Vanderbilt Commodores
(4-8, 2-7, tied for 12^th overall; RTU score of 46^th/14^th overall)

Offense: What could go wrong
The offensive line is always a source of concern in Nashville and this group looks like it might have more concerns than usual. The only sure thing is guard Cade McConnell; the other four positions were still in flux as fall camp approached. Vanderbilt also is one of the few teams to technically have two starting tight ends, although one of them is more a flex H-back, and a lot is riding on East Carolina transfer Jayvontay Connor to take up the slack from Eli Stowers’ departure to the pros. The big concern, though, is that Jared Curtis won’t be ready to take the reins at quarterback, at which point senior Blaze Berlowitz, who followed Pavia to Vanderbilt from New Mexico State but who has never been a starter, will be forced into action. Berlowitz doesn’t have Pavia’s skillset.

Defense: What could go right
The linebacker group is typically a bright spot at Vanderbilt, even in the Commodores’ leanest years, and the team tends to go as this group goes. Fortunately, it appears things are in good hands with Bryan Longwell and Bryce Cowan returning. The secondary was suspect at the end of 2025 but the addition of safety Ricardo Jones from Clemson has fans drooling. If CB Martel Hight and S C.J. Heard continue to develop, respectability might return to the Commodore secondary. The special teams also figure to be a bright spot for this team, as the Commodores boast one of the best units in the SEC.

Defense: What could go wrong
There is more depth than usual up front, but there isn’t a real bellcow in the group. It’s a typical concern for Vanderbilt, with the Commodores often lacking playmakers in the defensive line. There’s a general lack of pass rush, too, and if DE Miles Capers can’t take the next step in his development, things could get ugly, quickly. Vanderbilt needs better cornerback play from Hight and Jordan Matthews as well.

One-sentence summary: It wasn’t all about Pavia, but the absence of such an unusual playmaker probably means a return to more “Vandy-like” results in 2026.
The Commodores seem to be making a bigger investment in the program these days, but while the addition of Jared Curtis means something in the long run, for 2026, it just means that Vanderbilt is in a transition year. There’s going to be a lot of interest in whether head coach Clark Lea can wield his magic again with Pavia no longer under center.

14. Mississippi State Bulldogs
(4-8, 1-8, 14^th overall; RTU score of 30/16^th overall)

Offense: What could go wrong
The offensive line is a question mark at best and a real sticking point at worst. The Bulldogs brought in nine linemen from the portal, and while head coach Jeff Lebby has been trying to put a good face on it, the fact remains the Bulldogs didn’t exactly hit the lottery. Their top-rated transfer is tackle Miles McVay, who couldn’t scratch the playing rotation at Alabama. The best hope is that LSU transfer D.J. Chester can rebuild his career in Starkville; he grabbed a guard position from incumbent starter Blake Steen in the spring. There’s a general lack of size at receiver, which defenses can exploit.

Defense: What could go right
A lot of coaches are playing the return-to-sender game, and Mississippi State joined the list by bringing back former head coach Zach Arnett as defensive coordinator. His presence alone will probably be worth modest across-the-board improvement, regardless of talent. MSU’s 2023 defensive numbers were in Steel Curtain territory compared to the last two seasons, which were played without Arnett on the sidelines. The secondary and special teams are the two strengths here, as there are two potential high draft picks in the DB group (cornerback Kelley Jones, safety Isaac Smith) and decent talent around them courtesy of the transfer portal. If the special teams units can figure out how to cover kicks better, this could be one of the SEC’s more well-rounded units.

Defense: What could go wrong
Linebacker is going to hinge on whether Arnett’s more aggressive, instinctual style leads to more opportunities to make plays. It doesn’t help, though, that the talent level here just doesn’t measure up to SEC contenders. The defensive line is by far the bigger worry, though. Tackle will still be an open audition at the start of the season, and the Bulldogs are going to be asking a lot of DE Amaree Williams as a pass-rush specialist. Williams, a Florida State transfer, has played wide receiver, tight end and defensive end already in his short college career, but he’s never logged the kind of snaps the Bulldogs are asking of him. MSU is hoping he’s the second coming of DeMarcus Ware. The Bulldogs got next to no consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2025, and it’s hard to see where the improvement might come from in 2026.

One-sentence summary: Making do with fewer resources needs to yield to higher expectations eventually – but probably not this year.
Jeff Lebby pulled himself off the hotseat last year by backing into a bowl invitation, but will it be enough to survive until 2027, when QB Kamario Taylor is fully seasoned? Thanks to the transfer portal, waiting until next year is always an iffy proposition due to uncontrolled roster moves. The re-addition of Arnett should help, but this still has the feel of a program that should be playing in a lesser conference.

15. Kentucky Wildcats
(3-9, 0-9, tied for 15^th overall; RTU score of 57/12^th overall)

Offense: What could go right
If the running back group can stay off the medical table, Kentucky could be special there. Texas transfer C.J. Baxter and Oklahoma transfer Jovante Barnes both come with sterling prep resumes, but were held out of spring practice while they rehabbed injuries from 2025. Jason Patterson and Tovani Mizell are holdovers from the previous regime, and they should provide significant depth. Tight end Willie Rodriguez could be the top SEC player at that position. WR Nic Anderson should be an upgrade as the featured receiver over Kendrick Law.

Offense: What could go wrong
Plenty. Quarterback is in the hands of Kenny Minchey, a Notre Dame transfer with a nondescript resume. There isn’t much depth or proven production at receiver outside of Anderson. But the straw that stirs the drink is the offensive line, and Kentucky is counting on transfers to provide better results than last year, when the Wildcats were easily overwhelmed up front at times. Lance Heard, Olaus Alinen and Tegra Tshabola have varying degrees of experience and resume; all three need to hit to make this strategy work.

Defense: What could go right
Kentucky’s new regime says it plans to be more aggressive, but every struggling team says that. It’s going to come down to personnel, and the Wildcats believe they have the defensive front to pull it off. Edge pressure should be in good hands with returning ends M’Quise Humphrey-Grace and Sam Greene, but tackle play will probably hinge on what transfers can bring to the table. The linebacker group features a mix of veterans, and younger transfer portal additions who didn’t make quick impacts at their former schools. A redshirt freshman, Elijah Barnes, who transferred from Texas, may be the key to making the whole thing work if he can nail down the middle linebacker spot. In the defensive backfield, the safeties should be a strength.

Defense: What could go wrong
Any time there is this much dependency on the transfer portal, there’s a chance for things to go haywire if guys can’t acclimate to their new surroundings. Two positions in particular stand out, cornerback and linebacker. Kentucky is counting on an FCS transfer, Hassan Sykes, to be the new go-to player at corner, while Terhyon Nichols has to get over an injury suffered during the 2025 season. At linebacker, a lot is being placed on the shoulders of Barnes and also Arkansas transfer Tavion Wallace, who barely played for a bad Razorback defense. Special teams are also a bit sketchy at the moment, although Kentucky expects the punting game to eventually work out.

One-sentence summary: In addition to all the new faces on the field, the most important one of all is on the sideline – new head coach Will Stein, in his first year helming a program.
Stein comes to Kentucky from Oregon, and was hired specifically to jazz things up on offense after former coach Mark Stoops had allowed the Wildcat attack to go stale. But Stein doesn’t have the ammunition right now to make bigger holes in opposing defenses. Kentucky would be well-served to bide its time until Kenny Minchey can get the feel of playing quarterback in the SEC, relying on the running back group and a good defense to carry it. If the new pieces fail to come together quickly, though, Kentucky could be headed for a rough 2026.

16. Arkansas Razorbacks
(2-10, 0-9, 16^th overall; RTU score of 34/15^th overall)

Offense: What could go right
The Razorbacks like what they have at running back, where Braylen Russell is getting some preseason all-star attention. Arkansas added scatback Sutton Smith from Memphis and Jasper Parker from Michigan. The offensive line is a good mix of veterans and younger players and put up good metrics in 2025; there’s enough coming back that Arkansas at least won’t have to worry about rebuilding the offensive trenches. Receiver is also a mix of proven production and potential, and the tight end spot is a team strength.

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Offense: What could go wrong
How well QB K.J. Jackson picks up the new offense will drive the bus here. Jackson’s earlier opportunities didn’t always go as planned, and he’s on a short leash, with A.J. Hill, who came with new head coach Ryan Silverfield from Memphis, waiting just behind the curtain. All in all, Arkansas’ offense doesn’t need much fixing from a year ago, when the Razorbacks were in the top 30 nationally in all major categories. But the quarterback situation isn’t ideal, and a lot of the supporting players have checkered injury histories at prior schools.

Defense: What could go right
The Hogs return only two starters on defense, but they’re good ones: DE Quincy Rhodes Jr. and LB Bradley Shaw. Both are all over preseason all-star watch lists, and if there’s going to be any improvement on this side of the ball, it will start with these two. Arkansas did nothing positive defensively in 2025, so anything that rises just to the level of decency is going to look like improvement. Most of Arkansas’ transfer targets were smaller-school players with a lot of production, which is not a bad way to target portal talent. A name to watch here: LB/DB Khmori House, who has a unique skill set and will be playing a rover spot specifically designed to fit his talents.

Defense: What could go wrong
The interior defensive line isn’t the best; the upperclassmen are average at most, while most of the depth chart is made up of younger players with incomplete resumes. Next to Shaw, Arkansas is hoping to import Howard transfer Ja’Quavion Smith, which is a gamble. But that move pales in comparison to what’s going on in the secondary, where all projected starters are transfers from lesser programs. Depth in the secondary is a major red flag. Special teams are also an unknown, with Arkansas breaking in a new punter, while also serving as a curious landing spot for former Tennessee PK Max Gilbert, who for some reason chose to leave the Volunteer program.

One-sentence summary: Arkansas is betting on small-school development everywhere – including its head coach.
If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em, right? Ryan Silverfield takes over after his 2025 Memphis team upset Arkansas 32-31 in Week 4. His career at Memphis produced some of the best, most consistent results in the Tiger program’s history, but the SEC is a different animal. Arkansas saw a lot of action in the transfer portal, but struck out on almost all its priority DB targets and didn’t add any proven difference-makers at positions of need. The performances may improve, but the record may not.

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