DEFENSE
Clemson bases from a pure 4-3 alignment, while Alabama utilizes Nick Saban’s pet defense, the 3-4 over/under. And both are good at what they do. These are the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring defenses in the country, with Alabama currently on top. Clemson ranks 6th in both total defense and pass efficiency defense, 7th in raw pass defense and 13th in rush defense. Alabama ranks 2nd in both total defense and pass efficiency defense, 3rd in rush defense and 6th in raw pass defense. Again, this is why we keep picking low-scoring games in this series.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Clemson ranks 3rd in sacks and 9th in tackles for less and it’s not hard to figure out why. Three of the four starters on the defensive line – tackle Christian Wilkins and ends Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant – have combined for 40 tackles for loss. Forty. Second tackle Dexter Lawrence adds 3 more, and the group has combined for 23 sacks. That kind of production is almost unheard of.
Depth is superb, with Chris Register, Jabril Robinson, Albert Huggins and Justin Foster all very capable reserves. Clemson can throw numbers at the problem all night if needed.
Alabama is a bit more limited in that regard. Da’Ron Payne will start in the middle, flanked by Da’Shawn Hand and Raekwon Davis the end positions. Isaiah Buggs will play enough snaps to make Clemson think he’s a starter, while Quinnen Williams and Joshua Frazier provide depth.
For Alabama, it’s crucial Hand be 100 percent for this game, which he hasn’t been since he was injured against Ole Miss. Williams has come on lately, and he’ll need to give Alabama a good 15 snaps at least, if not more. LaBryan Ray is out for this game, meaning Alabama lacks a seventh lineman unless either Jamar King or Johnny Dwight has quietly made a move since bowl practice began.
While Alabama’s defensive line has done a solid job this year, probably overachieving, the production and depth just doesn’t match up to Clemson. Advantage: Clemson
LINEBACKERS
Alabama isn’t the only team missing a few linebackers to injury. Clemson has lost three over the course of the season, with the biggest being Tre Lamar. Lamar is expected back for this game, but he won’t be 100%. Reserve Judah Davis is out altogether, as is Logan Rudolph. Still, that doesn’t compare to the loss of Shaun Dion Hamilton, who will be unfortunately missing his second consecutive game against Clemson.
The Tigers will start Dorian O’Daniel and Kendall Joseph at the outside spots, and if Lamar is healthy, he’ll get the starting middle linebacker assignment. If not, James Skalski will have to do it, and while Skalski is a good player, there is a dropoff from Lamar back to him. O’Daniel and Joseph are the team’s top two tacklers, and O’Daniel has racked up impressive numbers behind the line of scrimmage (10.5 TFL, 5 sacks).
Alabama counters with Rashaan Evans at weakside linebacker, and the revolving hospital door at middle linebacker has taken in Dylan Moses and spit out Mack Wilson. Moses suffered a foot injury in bowl practice and is out for the remainder of the season, but Wilson is an upgrade if he has fully recovered from his own foot issues.
Keith Holcombe will back up both slots, and Joshua McMillon might be called upon for a handful of snaps. If Holcombe’s medical issues can be managed, he can be effective in short spurts, as he was at the beginning of the 2017 season.
The outside positions are somewhat unknown. For most of the year, Anfernee Jennings has started at Jack linebacker, with Jamey Mosley on the strongside. The return of Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis would shake things up a bit, especially if Lewis has made the kind of strides reported this month from practice observers. Lewis’ re-emergence gives Alabama a true pass rusher to supplement Jennings’ ability to set the edge in the running game.
This is going to sound strange, but this looks like an Alabama edge right now despite all the injuries. Alabama has a better situation at MLB, and with Evans and O’Daniel essentially a push, Alabama has superior players to Joseph on the other side. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
This comes down to whether you believe Alabama’s secondary is what it was the first 11 games of the year, or what it was against Auburn. In that game, cornerback Levi Wallace truly struggled for the first time in his Alabama career. With Renfrow an area of prime concern, it may not be Wallace, but instead Minkah Fitzpatrick who is pressured the most. Renfrow’s presence will force Alabama’s middle safety group – essentially Fitzpatrick and Tony Brown – to be on-point all night. In regards to Brown, middle coverage responsibilities are not his strong suit.
Ronnie Harrison at free safety is playing top-shelf football at the moment, but the loss of Hootie Jones to a knee injury means little-used Deionte Thompson gets thrust into action as a deep safety. Whereas Jones was a decent coverage safety who seemed to lack aggressiveness, Thompson is over-the-top aggressive but tends to get out of position.
Anthony Averett starts opposite Wallace at corner. Clemson counters with Ryan Carter and Trayvon Mullen at the corners and K’Von Wallace, Tanner Muse and Van Smith at safety. Reports vary on the availability of third corner Mark Fields, who has four starts on the year, but who is trying to rebound from a foot injury.
Clemson is downplaying his availability at the moment; if he can’t go, true freshman A.J. Terrell will have to step up. This is as much a push as anything on the board, but with Alabama coming off its worst performance of the year and Thompson seeing his first full game of action, Clemson looks like the better bet. Advantage: Clemson
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama’s Andy Pappanastos didn’t kick against Mercer, and missed his one field goal try against Auburn, but he’s still put together a solid year. Pappanastos is 15-of-19 (78.9%) on attempts and in the Superdome, his range figures to go out to about the 45-yard mark.
Punter J.K. Scott, who will finish his Alabama career having been robbed of a Ray Guy Award arguably every season, will attempt long kicks.
Clemson has struggled in the kicking game this year. Original kicker Greg Heugel was just .500 on the season when he was lost with an ACL injury, and his replacement, Alex Spence, has sprayed the ball badly beyond 30 yards out.
The Tigers rank just 92nd in net punting. Kickoff returns have been similarly impotent, but the Tigers are 21st in punt returns – although, the question remains how many attempts they’ll get, given Scott is aces in a controlled environment. Kick and punt return defense are mediocre at best.
Alabama, meanwhile, leads the nation in punt return defense and is far above average in kickoff return defense. It’s sort of scary when Alabama allegedly enjoys a large lead in this category, as that’s precisely the time special teams breakdowns seem to occur. But overall, Alabama has had a very good year, aside from a mediocre return unit. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama and Clemson both lead in four categories. Both team’s DL wins over the opposition’s OL, and you could argue it’s by a substantial amount in both cases. Predictably, this is the toughest matchup Alabama’s had on paper all year.
For whatever reason, these supposed defensive slugfests haven’t come to pass the last two times Alabama and Clemson have taken the field. Whether it was the pressure of the game itself, the amount of time available to craft an attack plan or some other variable, neither team has had issues moving the ball on the other.
That might change this year, if for no other reason than the quarterback play is in question for both offenses. On the other hand, both teams are dealing with significant injuries on the defensive side. If replacement players continually find themselves out of position, both Dabo Swinney and Brian Daboll are capable of attacking those miscues.
Alabama’s success here likely comes down to how well the Crimson Tide can bottle up the Tiger running game. Unless Kelly Bryant has the same kind of big-game nerve control Deshaun Watson possessed, it’s hard to imagine Bryant being asked to win the game largely on his own and then actually coming through and doing it. If Alabama can make the Tigers more one-dimensional on offense than they normally are, the possibility of a Bama win goes up.
The same could be said for Clemson; however, in the rush to criticize Jalen Hurts for his Auburn performance, it has been largely overlooked that Hurts took over the fourth quarter of the Mississippi State game, leading Alabama to two touchdowns and a missed field goal attempt, and that the last thing Clemson saw of Hurts was him running into the end zone to put Alabama on top late in the fourth quarter this past January.
While this figures to be a tough game for both teams, neither team is what it was a year ago. Clemson is not as explosive; Alabama is not as dynamic. Maybe we’ll finally get that defensive struggle after all.
Alabama 20
Clemson 16
READ MORE:Â Return to Bama @ Clemson OFFENSE Preview
Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN
You must be logged in to post a comment.