DEFENSE
Mercer plays fairly standard, multiple defensive fronts that mostly revolve around a three-down set. The Bears rank 27th in FCS in scoring defense, 44th against the run, 62nd in total defense, 76th in raw pass defense and 82nd in pass efficiency defense. In other words, Alabama’s wide receivers ought to run wild. Alabama ranks in the top 8 in all five major defensive categories, despite its injury issues at linebacker.
DEFENSIVE LINE
No disrespect to Mercer, but if size was the only thing that mattered for a defensive lineman, this would be a good high school line. Starters Jalen Penn, Dorian Kithcart and Isaiah Buehler weigh 259, 285 and 262 pounds, respectively, and remember that this is a multiple 3-4 base set. Yet, Mercer did a good job controlling Auburn’s running game at times, so this is not just a battle of the weigh-in scales. Buehler especially is worth watching; he has 7.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks on the year, meaning he has more than a third of the team’s entire sack total. Of the backups, Austin Barrett and Behr Cooper both are within sniffing distance of the 300-pound mark, but their numbers have been average. The one backup with potentially special ability is the lanky Austin Wysor, an Alabama native who can get decent penetration from an end position.
Alabama figures to start Da’Ron Payne, Isaiah Buggs and Raekwon Davis, but probably will hold Da’Shawn Hand out of this game, or at most play him just enough to say he played on Senior Day. Hand played against LSU and Mississippi State, but clearly is not the same player he was before the injury against Ole Miss. Look for Quinnen Williams, Joshua Frazier and LaBryan Ray to get a ton of work, along with Johnny Dwight and Jamar King. Buehler and Wysor bear watching here, but the size mismatch will be a big factor. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Lee Bennett, Will Coneway, Kyle Williams and LeMarkus Bailey are productive and are strong against the run as far as FCS linebackers go. Each has proved capable of making plays behind the line of scrimmage. What they lack, though, is effective pass-rush moves. The four have combined for just 3.5 sacks, and seem to be more reactionary than proactive in pass coverage. Ahmad Arnold, Logan Craighead and Sidney Otiwu provide depth, and Otiwu in particular has been effective in a reserve role. What is most lacking here is size; aside from Williams’ 235-pound frame inside, the rest of these players look more like decent-sized safeties than linebackers. Bailey, for instance, clocks in at 201 pounds.
The question for Alabama is can its group perform like fourth-quarter Alabama rather than first-through-third-quarter Alabama, referring to the day/night contrast in effectiveness they displayed last week against the Bulldogs. Rashaan Evans and Keith Holcombe will start inside, but there’s a question of how much Evans is going to play. It’s a conundrum; he’s needed for this game, but if Evans goes down hurt here, that alone might hand Auburn the game next week.
There is no more depth left for Alabama. Dylan Moses played poorly against MSU but will get a heavy workload this week. VanDarius Cowan should also see time inside, and so might Joshua McMillon or Ben Davis. Outside, Anfernee Jennings continues his quiet, but solid play at Jack linebacker, while Jamey Mosley will start at strongside linebacker and potentially play inside as well. There is no question Evans is the best player out of this group for either team, and Jennings is good at locking down the outside. But take a look at the MSU tape and see if you can honestly say Alabama’s linebackers are in a good place right now. Advantage: Mercer
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Eric Jackson and Rutgers transfer Kam Lott have been the stalwarts in the defensive backfield this year; the rest is a mess. Malique Fleming, Harrison Poole, Brandon Coney and Stephen Houzah have split the other two spots. Rather amazingly, Jackson, the team’s second-leading tackler, hasn’t made a single stop behind the line this year. Size is an issue all over the place; only Coney and Poole are over 200 pounds, and Houzah in particular is mismatched against any Alabama receiver other than Xavian Marks – he’s 5’8”, 165. The lack of run support has been an issue, but Mercer has also struggled in some of the simplest pass defense abilities.
Alabama will start Levi Wallace and Anthony Averett at corner and Ronnie Harrison at free safety. Minkah Fitzpatrick, however, either won’t play at all, or will play only sparingly and not for very long. Look for Hootie Jones to probably start at strong safety, with Tony Brown filling Fitzpatrick’s Star safety position in nickel and dime. With Fitzpatrick mostly out, Deionte Thompson and Xavier McKinney will get more time at safety. Shyheim Carter, Trevon Diggs, Daniel Wright and Jared Mayden are also in line for increased snaps, along with Keaton Anderson. Not having Fitzpatrick available makes this slightly less of a mismatch, but not much. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama’s J.K. Scott may have been struggling early, but he’s back to Ray Guy form at the right time of the year. Andy Pappanastos continues to be solid at placekicker, a bank shot off the upright against Mississippi State notwithstanding. The real question for Alabama is the return game; kickoff returns have simply been ineffective, while Alabama’s punt return unit suddenly has more holes in it than a paper target on a Marine Corps rifle range. Look for Xavian Marks to continue in the return role for now, although Trevon Diggs gets healthier every week.
For Mercer, Grant Goupil is just average at punter, while placekicker Cole Fisher is only 7-of-11 and hasn’t hit from beyond 36 yards this year. Mercer has been strong on returns, with Chandler Curtis a dangerous punt returner and Curtis and Rashad Haynes teaming up to form a capable kickoff return duo. Mercer may be better on returns, but the kicking and punting situation are strong Alabama leans. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Shockingly, this is not a straight-eight for Alabama, but that’s only because of the evidence from the first 45 minutes of the Mississippi State game. Alabama obviously has better talent at linebacker than Mercer does, but they need to show it. Alabama controls the OL-DL matchups so strongly in this one that it’s not worth discussing.
Simply put, Alabama should be able to bench its top 22 players, start the backups and still roll by 30 points. Whether a blowout actually happens or not will be determined by how much mental effort Alabama puts into this game. Alabama probably spent less than a quarter of its time this week actually preparing for Mercer, and the vast majority of it preparing for Auburn and perhaps Georgia as well.
It’s hard to say these things without sounding disrespectful to the Mercer program, but its coaches are well aware. They’ll use it for motivation, certainly, but Alabama, injuries and all, is barely in danger here. If Alabama did lose this game, the Crimson Tide wouldn’t deserve a playoff shot anyway.
As for Mercer’s early game against Auburn? It’s hard to say what happened there. The Tigers looked asleep for most of the game. Alabama might sleep through this game, too – it’s an 11 a.m. kickoff; who could blame college kids for hitting the snooze button on a Saturday? – but a far more likely outcome is the Crimson Tide gets up by a ton of points early on and kills the clock as quickly as possible in the second half.
And after that, it’s officially Auburn week.
Alabama 45
Mercer 0
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Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN
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