Texas A&M Preview: Danger level depends on how one views UCLA loss

DEFENSE

Defensive coordinator John Chavis has had an unusual degree of struggle in getting the back end of the A&M defense together. Both linebacker and secondary have been weaknesses under his tenure in College Station, but the defensive line has made nice strides in 2017. Texas A&M will base from Chavis’ preferred 4-3 defense, which is a fairly straight-up interpretation of the scheme that depends on solid linebacker play to be successful.

Texas A&M ranks 15^th in rushing defense, but the other numbers are putrid: 76^th in total defense, 80^th in scoring defense, 97^th in pass efficiency defense and 118^th in raw pass defense. Unless the Aggies find the magic key to defense this week, it’s going to be hard to compete with Alabama: 1^st in scoring defense, 2^nd in rushing defense, 6^th in total defense, 9^th in pass efficiency defense and 25^th in raw pass defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE

There’s a line of thought that a team’s defense gets tougher when it faces a true pro-style offense in team scrimmage work. It seems to hold true for Texas A&M; as the Aggies have moved closer to a power-form offense, the defensive line has been tougher to penetrate. Not only is A&M 14^th against the run, the Aggies are 4^th nationally and 1^st in the SEC in sacks. Zaycoven Henderson and Kingsley Keke start at the tackles, while Qualen Cunningham and Jarrett Johnson start outside.

Daylon Mack is threatening to take Henderson’s starting spot, not necessarily because Henderson has struggled but because Mack has been hard to keep off the field. But the real name to watch is pass-rush specialist Landis Durham, a defensive end with 5.5 sacks and 3 QB hurries already, while playing a backup role. He’s threatening to supplant Cunningham on a regular basis. Together with Johnson, Durham has created havoc for teams with weak offensive tackles, thankfully something that doesn’t seem to apply here.

Alabama will be without the services of Da’Shawn Hand, who will be out for roughly a month after a scary, borderline block he took against Ole Miss. Without Hand, Alabama will start Isaiah Buggs and Raekwon Davis at the ends, with Quinnen Williams the primary backup on both sides. Da’Ron Payne will start at nosetackle, with Joshua Frazier and Johnny Dwight providing depth there.

Jamar King and true freshman LaBryan Ray, who saw only a handful of snaps last week in his first, limited collegiate action, will be expected to step up at end, and Frazier might move outside as well. Williams in particular has begun to assert himself in the rotation. This one was going to be close, with Alabama holding the edge, but Hand’s loss swings it the other way. Advantage: Texas A&M

LINEBACKERS

While the secondary is still problematic for the Aggies, Chavis and his assistants can at least take pride in the development of the linebacker group, at least against the run and in the pass rush. Pass coverage remains a soft spot. The aforementioned Landis Durham appears as a linebacker in some personnel lists, but is really a defensive end. Either he or Anthony Hines will get the start at strongside linebacker, with Otaro Alaka and Tyrel Dodson at weakside and middle linebacker, respectively. Alaka has the most potential and most experience of this group by far, and is finally delivering, but it’s been the emergence of Dodson in the middle that has really brought this unit up to snuff. Alaka and Dodson each have 3 sacks, but Dodson has added 2 interceptions and the two have combined for 12 tackles for loss. What isn’t present here is depth; Braden White, Cullen Gillaspia and Riley Garner play a lot but haven’t made an impact.

Alabama will counter with Shaun Dion Hamilton, Rashaan Evans, Keith Holcombe and Mack Wilson inside, while Anfernee Jennings, Christopher Allen, Joshua McMillon and Jamey Mosley handle the outside. The return of Evans and Jennings have been huge for the Tide, especially against the run, and while there are improvements to be made at strongside linebacker, Alabama won’t be in base defense the majority of the time anyway and that position will be off the field. Kudos to A&M for getting better here, but just about everyone in the sport is looking up to Alabama right now at this position. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS

What a mess. The Aggies came into the year needing to get better and instead, may have gotten worse. Run support has improved somewhat, but coverage has been a consistent issue. And then strong safety Donovan Wilson got hurt. Wilson remains questionable at best for this game, leaving Armani Watts as the lone veteran to start all five games. Credit Watts for improving greatly as a senior, though: He’s the team’s leading tackler, has 5 tackles for loss from his safety position and 3 interceptions, the only Aggie defensive back to record even one.

With Wilson out, the rest of the starting group will be some combination of true freshman CB Myles Jones, senior corner Priest Willis, sophomore Charles Oliver, junior Deshawn Capers-Smith, and Larry Pryor, a safety. Jones, at 6’4”, has got NFL measurables but has struggled as a freshman. Willis has a big edge in experience but isn’t a difference-maker. Oliver, Capers-Smith and Pryor will be left to fill in the gaps, along with another true freshman, Debione Renfro.

Oliver is also less than 100-percent healthy. So far, Texas A&M has not found the right mix.

Alabama is locking down everything at the moment, thanks in large part to the emergence of walk-on Levi Wallace at cornerback, which is a story so unbelievable the movie has to be just around the corner. Anthony Averett and Tony Brown will round out the cornerback group, because Alabama lost Trevon Diggs for a couple of games to an ankle injury last week. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison start at safety, with Laurence Jones, Deionte Thompson and Xavier McKinney providing depth there. The loss of Diggs hurts Alabama, but not nearly as much as the loss of Wilson does for Texas A&M, or Nick Harvey, who was lost for the season prior to the end of fall camp. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Daniel LaCamera has been automatic inside 50 yards, hitting all his field goal attempts from those distances, as well as his PAT attempts. Shane Tripucka isn’t the punter Alabama’s J.K. Scott is, but he’s very good anyway, and Aggie coverage teams are a strong suit, allowing Texas A&M to rank 19^th in net punting. Christian Kirk makes Texas A&M a real threat to house a kickoff return, and the only thing keeping the Aggies from a good showing in punt returns is that opposing teams have only allowed them 3 opportunities on the year, consistently kicking away from Aggie returners.

Alabama has improved greatly at placekicker, as both Scott (for long kicks) and Andy Pappanastos are making good passes at the ball. Alabama ranks 4^th nationally in punt return defense and the kickoff return defense isn’t bad either (43^rd), so this is more or less a matchup of equals. The real issue, though, is the loss of Trevon Diggs as Alabama’s punt returner. He might not have given Alabama many flashy returns yet, but he was automatic in catching punts in traffic. Alabama will have to go to Henry Ruggs III or Xavian Marks now, and neither is as sure-handed as Diggs was. This, and LaCamera’s slight edge in kick accuracy, push it to the Aggies’ side of the ledger. Advantage: Texas A&M

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, Texas A&M in two, but the Aggies could make a case at running back or wide receiver as well. In the crucial OL-DL matchups, Alabama’s DL has a comfortable edge over Texas A&M’s OL. The other matchup (Alabama OL vs. A&M DL) is closer to a push, but Alabama probably holds a slim edge there, as well.

Were it not for that, this game could possibly get very close, if and only if Aggie QB Kellen Mond had a career game. Alabama has been hurt many times by a quarterback suddenly finding the holy grail of passing ability just for the Alabama game week, then later losing it, but Mond doesn’t seem to be the ideal candidate. What concerns Alabama here is stopping the run, which will be a tough order especially with Da’Shawn Hand looking on in street clothes.

If Alabama can’t put the Aggie running game on its backside, this could end up being a long afternoon. Kyle Field isn’t the easiest SEC road venue by far, and this is an Aggie team built more and more to go physical. The fact the Aggies have seemed to rally around its embattled coach also speaks to the difficulty Alabama will face in breaking their will in the same way Alabama did it to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.

Texas A&M’s chief concern is how to stop Alabama’s run-pass options on offense while basically having to hide its secondary from view. The defensive line might be a force, but the defensive backfield is a farce. Texas A&M is probably secretly hoping Bradley Bozeman will miss this game, because if he’s there and 100 percent, it will be hard for this team to keep Alabama out of short second and third downs.

Nick Saban told media Tuesday that Texas A&M would be Alabama’s toughest game so far. Assuming he’s telling the truth – and that he hasn’t forgotten he faced Florida State in the opener – this game could get a bit uncomfortable for Alabama fans. But the fact Texas A&M had to come back against Arkansas and South Carolina, teams that are nowhere near Alabama’s league, should suggest actually losing the game would be the longest of long shots.

Alabama 30
Texas A&M 14

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Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN