Last Week’s Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
2026 Season Record: 48-10 (82.8%)
Not a terrible week for the Predictions Dept., but we wish we’d taken Missouri against Florida after noting that it might qualify as an Upset Special. This week, Alabama-Georgia will have all the eyes Saturday night, but there are interesting matchups besides that one, perhaps no more so than Texas-Oklahoma, which we’re examining under an upset lens.
TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS
We’d really like to think Arkansas had a chance here, because Tennessee’s offense is putrid, but Arkansas has played three teams with a pulse and have scored 10, 17 and 7 points against them. Most egregious was putting up just 7 last week against Texas A&M, which doesn’t say a lot about Arkansas’ new staff getting the Razorbacks to exhibit some kind of in-season improvement. Tennessee’s lack of a passing game kept Auburn in the game last week longer than it should have, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a similarly slow start this week until the Volunteer running game finally gets rolling. But it will get rolling, eventually.
Tennessee 30
Arkansas 10
GEORGIA at ALABAMA
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SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA
We’re going to put it bluntly: If Shane Beamer loses this game, he’s probably going to be fired next week. This game marks South Carolina’s halfway point in the season, and Beamer can’t afford to go 0-4 in conference play to open the year and lose four games in a row overall. Florida got humbled a bit last week against Missouri, and the Tigers were able to expose some weaknesses in the Florida defense that South Carolina can probably exploit, at least to some degree. If you haven’t been paying attention to the stats, we’ll forgive you for not noticing that Florida is 12th in the nation in total offense … but South Carolina is just behind in 13th. The Gamecocks run the ball very well (7th overall) and QB LaNorris Sellers is a tough nut to crack. Neither of these teams have a pass defense, and with the game in Gainesville, we just can’t talk ourselves into a Beamer-led win.
Florida 37
South Carolina 30
LOUISIANA STATE at KENTUCKY
Take out the second half of the Alabama game and Kentucky looks pretty sporty. Enough, at least, for us to think that maybe LSU isn’t just going to come to town and walk the Wildcats over. If LSU’s offense is firing on all cylinders, Kentucky will be hard-pressed to hold serve; the Wildcats have improved across the board but it’s still a mediocre team all things considered. Mediocre teams can occasionally rise above the waterline and cause problems, but the only way Kentucky wins this is if LSU just doesn’t show up. The Tigers, to the surprise of no one, are already displaying extraordinary offensive balance under Lane Kiffin. You just have to wonder if Kiffin can keep focus on this game long enough to win it.
LSU 38
Kentucky 21
MISSISSIPPI at VANDERBILT
Ole Miss gets to prove the Florida game wasn’t what the Rebels really were. However, is this really the ninth-ranked team in the country? Yes, Ole Miss beat LSU (or more specifically, beat Lane Kiffin), but the rest of the schedule has been underwhelming: a close win over Louisville, a ho-hum defeat of Charlotte, and then the Florida debacle. The Rebels have no ground game to speak of, and Pete Golding is still learning how to be a head coach. If he can’t figure out SEC road games quickly, the heat is going to come fast. Fortunately, it’s Vanderbilt this week, and the Commodores just aren’t as much of a threat as they have been in recent seasons. We’ll see what Ole Miss looks like in a bounceback opportunity against a team that will probably wind up fighting Arkansas for the bottom of the league.
Ole Miss 33
Vanderbilt 14
TEXAS A&M at MISSOURI
Missouri is the hardest team in the SEC to figure. A strong win over Florida is certainly the gem in the crown, but a solid win over Kansas on the road in Week 2 – the same Kansas team that ranks inside the top 10 in total offense and rushing offense, and nearly beat Arizona State in a game played in Wembley Stadium in London – was no slouch of a game, either. And then there was nearly messing around with Troy in Week 3, and losing to Mississippi State the following week after leading early. Texas A&M is a lot easier to figure out: The Aggies lack above-average quarterback play, the secondary is leaky and there seems to be no understanding of how to come back from a deficit. But overall, the Aggies have the better roster. If this game was in Kyle Field rather than Columbia, we’d probably take the Aggies in an upset (and yes, it’s an upset given that the Aggies are unranked at the moment while Mizzou is #14), but we think Missouri will be able to hold onto the momentum here long enough to get by.
Missouri 24
Texas A&M 23
TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (at Dallas, Texas)
For starters, we don’t think Texas is the best team in the country the way the pollsters do. For that matter, we have the Longhorns third in the SEC at the moment, closer to the fourth-place team (LSU) than either Georgia or Alabama above. There’s just no offense here. Even with QB Arch Manning’s improvement, Texas lacks any kind of explosiveness. Oklahoma has explosiveness in its offense, but it’s the kind of explosiveness you get when you douse fireworks in gasoline and hold them while trying to light them. What Oklahoma does have is a legit, top-flight defense. But Texas’ defense is good enough to keep Oklahoma’s dysfunctional offense at bay. Either team could win this one and it’s our Upset Special for the week, but are we going to actually pick it? No. Had Oklahoma not totally folded up against Georgia in its last game, maybe. But we believe Texas finds a way out. We rarely refer to betting lines or anything of the sort here, but whatever the under is on this game, you should probably take it.
Texas 17
Oklahoma 13
IDLE: Auburn, Mississippi State
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN