It’s time to kick off the 2025 SEC football season with the start of our weekly SEC Preview and Predictions feature. Last year’s record was a solid effort, a 77.5-percent win rate in the first year of a conference expansion cycle. We’ll take it, but we want to do better in 2025 and get closer to what’s considered a “good” win rate of 80 percent. In Week 1, Texas-Ohio State won’t just be the biggest game involving a conference team, it’s the biggest game on the national schedule and may wind up being the biggest single game of the year. In other interesting games, Alabama travels to Florida State, while Auburn visits Baylor for what could be a bigger test for the Tigers than most think.
Last Season’s Record: 100-29 (77.5%)
LONG ISLAND at FLORIDA
You might be forgiven if you didn’t know that Long Island University played football, but the Sharks have been a member of FCS/Division-IAA since 2019. Now we have what sounds like the plot of a bad movie: Who wins a fight between a Shark and a Gator? In this case, it better be the Gators, because LIU finished the 2024 season at just 4-8, getting stomped out by the only FBS team it played, TCU, 45-0. The only real question in this game is whether D.J. Lagway will play quarterback for Florida, or take the week off.
Florida 59
LIU 7
ALABAMA at FLORIDA STATE
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MARSHALL at GEORGIA
A lot of people are forgetting that Marshall was a 10-win program in 2024, including winning its last seven games including a bowl win over Louisiana. But Charles Huff departed the Thundering Herd program after the season, and this game will mark the head coaching debut of Telly Lockette. Unlike the most famous Marshall teams of the recent past, the 2024 Herd couldn’t throw the ball a lick, and won almost in spite of a badly imbalanced offense. Georgia has its own issues to work through, chief among them breaking in a new quarterback. Marshall’s defense, however, probably isn’t up to the task of making Georgia pay for its lack of experience at that position.
Georgia 38
Marshall 17
ALABAMA A&M at ARKANSAS
Sam Pittman won’t get too many freebies in 2025, and he better take advantage of all of them. The Razorback boosters are restless, and a poor showing here would probably start the wheels of change rolling early.
Arkansas 45
Alabama A&M 17
AUBURN at BAYLOR
Baylor went 8-5 and made a bowl in 2025, so on paper the Bears should be marked as the favorite in this game. But Auburn did enough in regard to improving its roster to make us think the Tigers will use this game as a launchpad back to respectability. Hugh Freeze’s job is being evaluated week-to-week at the moment, and he’ll have to contend with a Baylor team that can score a lot of points and nearly put a scare in LSU in a bowl game last year. Call it SEC bias, but we’re taking Auburn anyway.
Auburn 30
Baylor 27
TOLEDO at KENTUCKY
A couple of articles in Kentucky-based publications this week addressed the concept of Kentucky overlooking Toledo, with several Wildcats saying they respected the Rockets and wouldn’t be caught looking past them. That’s nice, because Toledo just happened to be 8-5 last year while Kentucky was 4-8. Like the Auburn-Baylor game just above this one, we are going to exercise our SEC bias, because even with the turmoil in Lexington, we can’t see Kentucky being bad enough to drop this game at home. Still, it’s worth pointing out that Toledo beat the brakes off Mississippi State last year, 41-17, and also beat Pitt in a bowl game. However, the Rockets put up some head-scratching losses, too, so we will go with our gut and take the ‘Cats – but it wouldn’t surprise us in the least if Kentucky dropped this one.
Kentucky 34
Toledo 27
LOUISIANA STATE at CLEMSON
Brian Kelly badly needs to pull this upset in order to keep the wolves at bay, but the game’s in the wrong location at the wrong time of the year for the Tigers. LSU has started slowly under Kelly a couple of times, and LSU will be walking into an ambush of sorts as Dabo Swinney is desperate in his own way to show the college football world that his approach to the transfer portal and roster management in general isn’t crazy. On the field, the item to watch will be the coming together (or not) of LSU’s defense, especially a secondary that let the Tigers down multiple times in 2024. If Clemson wins this game, it’s pretty much a straight shot from here to the College Football Playoff. The Tigers’ second-best opponent may very well be South Carolina at season’s end.
Clemson 27
LSU 21
GEORGIA STATE at MISSISSIPPI
Vanderbilt nearly lost bowl eligibility in 2024 as a result of losing to Georgia State, but the Rebels won’t be repeating the Commodores’ mistake.
Ole Miss 45
Georgia St. 10
MISSISSIPPI STATE at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
There’s a lot of bad blood in this one but there’s also going to be a lot of ugly losses that will likely follow, for both teams. These are two programs that have both seen better days, and SEC membership or not, State has its hands full with this one. For that matter, the Bulldogs will have their hands full with every game on the schedule; the roster just isn’t there yet. Charles Huff is the new coach for Southern Miss, but he probably won’t have had enough time in the seat yet to turn the fortunes of the Golden Eagles in this one.
Mississippi St. 30
Southern Miss 24
CENTRAL ARKANSAS at MISSOURI
Missouri starts the year with Central Arkansas and finishes the season with Arkansas. We’re not sure directional modifiers are going to make any difference; Missouri is likely to beat both by wide margins.
Missouri 44
C. Arkansas 7
ILLINOIS STATE at OKLAHOMA
Illinois State went 10-4 last season but got destroyed by the only FBS opponent it played, losing to Iowa 40-0. We’re not sure what’s more impressive: bouncing back from a 40-0 loss to finish 10-4, or the fact that Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa scored 40 points against anyone.
Oklahoma 41
Illinois St. 7
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA TECH (at Atlanta, Ga.)
If this game is going to serve as the SEC’s official kickoff to the season, it’s not quite on the level of yesteryear matchups like Alabama-Clemson. In this one, you get an SEC team that will probably take a step back from its 2024 performance against a Virginia Tech team that went 6-7 and lost to Vanderbilt in overtime in the opener. We picked the Hokies to beat Vanderbilt convincingly last year, but then got an up-close look at the Hokie roster in that game and the difference between it and the Frank Beamer Virginia Tech teams of the past was startling. South Carolina has its own rebuilding to go through in 2025, especially on the defensive side. This one should be competitive, but South Carolina should take it.
South Carolina 27
Virginia Tech 23
TENNESSEE vs. SYRACUSE (at Atlanta, Ga.)
Why this game rated a neutral-site venue, no one is able to say. Yes, Syracuse was 10-3 in 2024. But the Orange return just 6 of 24 total starters on offense, defense and special teams combined. The Orange’s quarterback situation took probably the biggest hit; Rickie Collins and Steve Angeli are probably not the second coming of Kyle McCord. Tennessee, of course, has its own issues at quarterback thanks to the Nico Iamaleava debacle. Everyone around the Syracuse program is expecting a rebuilding year of sorts. Tennessee couldn’t be happier.
Tennessee 31
Syracuse 21
TEXAS at OHIO STATE
The Longhorns are the SEC’s most talented team, but this game is hitting at the wrong time for a Longhorn program that is rebuilding its offense and looking to avoid the kind of tight start that Steve Sarkisian often oversees. Ohio State is changing quarterbacks, too, but the real rebuilding is happening on the defensive side of the ball for the Buckeyes. Texas would like revenge for last year’s CFP semifinal loss to the Buckeyes, but Ohio State looked to be a step ahead of Texas in that game and the Longhorns didn’t close the gap in the offseason. Texas’ best hope here is that new OSU quarterback Julian Sayin turns out to be a bust.
Ohio State 24
Texas 19
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO at TEXAS A&M
The Roadrunners were a respectable 7-6 last year but it might be asking too much to think about pulling a Week 1 upset against Texas A&M. The Aggies have high hopes for the 2025 season, with a chunk of the fan base believing the Aggies are a playoff team. Struggling against a satellite school from your own home state isn’t the way to kick off those efforts.
Texas A&M 35
UTSA 13
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN at VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt knows how to pick ’em. Charleston Southern was 1-11 in 2024 at the FCS level, even finding a way to somehow make a terrible Florida State team look good in a 41-7 loss at the end of the season. The Commodores should have no trouble here.
Vanderbilt 45
Charleston So. 3
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN