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Georgia preview: Old versus new has new meaning in this series

For the better part of a decade, Alabama-Georgia matchups were framed as the elder professor, Nick Saban, administering lessons to his protege, Kirby Smart. In most cases, Smart was not up to the challenge of besting his mentor.

But with Saban’s retirement over the most recent offseason, the scenario has flipped. Kirby Smart is now one of the SEC’s longest-tenured coaches, still employing a system that is all but Nick Saban’s original design, albeit with a few extra touches added on. Alabama is now coached by one of the most innovative offensive minds in the game, Kalen DeBoer.

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Whereas fans looking ahead last year to this game were framing it as let another chance for Smart to finally get over the hump against Saban – winning on the road in Bryant-Denny Stadium would have caused most national pundits to suggest the torch was being passed – all of a sudden, Smart is the one fending off the new challenger, and the stadium is now partially named for the guy who was just coaching there less than a year ago.

Georgia has the advantage in this game of having mature systems in place, without any massive roster overhauls to contend with. Alabama, though, has explosiveness on its side, as well as a solid home-field advantage. For those positioning this game as one of those “games of the century,” they may not be far off.

OFFENSE

Georgia’s offense is most akin to the Saban offenses of Saban’s early years at Alabama. Lots of tight ends, a fullback here and there, a chuggy running game that was selective in its downfield shots. Gone are some of Georgia’s more explosive playmakers of recent years, like TE Brock Bowers, so the 2024 Georgia offense has fallen back to 65th in total offense, 84th in rushing offense and 48th in passing. Alabama’s more wide-open attack, an Air Raid-spread marriage with physical components, ranks 24th in the country, 19th in running and 69th in passing. This will be the ultimate test of what the SEC has been for years versus what it might look like more and more in the coming decades.

QUARTERBACKS
Georgia’s Carson Beck was sought-after by the Alabama staff as a high schooler, as he was said to have superstar potential. We’re not sure that’s really the case, but even if he’s the next tier down – game manager with the skills to do something bigger every now and then – that’s still more than good enough to lead a team like the Bulldogs. For the year, Beck is completing 68.3% of his passes and has 7 touchdowns against 0 interceptions, but yards per attempt is just at 8.3 and the Bulldogs haven’t been able to consistently stretch the field. The backup is Gunner Stockton, who doesn’t possess quite the level of athleticism that Beck has, but he’s been a very accurate passer (83.3% in 2024) and it probably wouldn’t be a complete train wreck for Georgia if Stockton had to play.

Alabama counters with Jalen Milroe, who hasn’t thrown for huge passing yardage numbers yet – he trails Beck by 90 total yards – but Milroe has become a touchdown machine, accounting for 8 touchdowns in the air and another 6 on the ground. He’s a completely different quarterback from Beck, and rougher around the edges, but he also has something Beck doesn’t have yet: a win in this series as a starting quarterback. Bama’s backup, Ty Simpson, edges out Stockton, so this one basically comes down to whether you want the guy who put up big passing numbers a year ago (but hasn’t replicated them yet in 2024) or the guy who can create a score from anywhere on the field even if he misses a couple of other opportunities along the way. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
For all the talk of Florida transfer Trevor Etienne and Georgia’s heralded stable of running backs, the Bulldogs haven’t been able to run the ball with explosiveness. Etienne has yet to score a touchdown, and backup Branson Robinson, while he does have 2 TDs on the year, is averaging 3.3 yards per carry, to the point that true freshman Nate Frazier (1 score) will probably end up being Etienne’s primary relief. Etienne’s Florida career was good but not great, which sort of describes where things are right now in his Georgia career.

Alabama will use Jam Miller and Justice Haynes for most of this game; third-teamer Richard Young is listed as probable for the game but he wasn’t getting many snaps with games on the line anyway. Miller has 100 more yards than Etienne and has scored 3 times off about the same number of carries. Haynes is a home-run threat, and then there’s the fact that Jalen Milroe’s running game has developed to the point that he more or less needs to be double-counted in both the QB and RB categories. When you hear people singing the praises of Georgia’s running game, it’s based off potential rather than proven performance based on what we’ve seen so far. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Georgia will be without reserves London Humphreys and Sacovie White for this game, but most of the production was coming from other areas of the roster anyway. Arian Smith, Dillon Bell and Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett will be the three starters, and all three are reliable pass catchers. Georgia targets them about equally, so Bama can’t just focus down one target and let the other two go. What has been missing so far is a consistent deep passing attack, but Smith easily has the potential to get loose. Georgia always uses its tight ends well, and Lawson Luckie and Oscar Delp are a solid two-man rotation there, with Stanford transfer Ben Yurosek also in the mix. Depth outside will have to come from Miami transfer Colbie Young, and beyond that it gets a bit dicey with Humphreys not available.

Alabama will use six players primarily at receiver: Ryan Williams, Kendrick Law, Kobe Prentice, Emmanuel Henderson, Caleb Odom and Germie Bernard. There is also a slight chance Cole Adams could return to the field this week. Bama’s tight end group – C.J. Dippre, Robbie Ouzts, Josh Cuevas and Danny Lewis Jr. – have also emerged as focal points of this offense.

Comparing to Georgia, Bama’s group has been top-heavy, with a lot of the production running through Williams and Bernard. Prentice and Law seem to be on the verge of taking the next step up, but it hasn’t happened yet. We like Georgia’s tight end combo a shade better than Bama’s, but the Tide has more depth there. This is probably the closest call on the board. Advantage: Georgia

OFFENSIVE LINE
When the talent is close, fall back to the metrics. Doing that, Georgia has a big advantage on paper at the moment: Alabama ranks 80th in sacks allowed and 45th in tackles for loss allowed, while Georgia ranks 11th and 20th, respectively. The fly in the ointment for Georgia is that Tate Ratledge, who has started all three games at right guard; he’s out for this game with injury. Earnest Greene and Xavier Truss will start at left and right tackle, Jared Wilson at center and Dylan Fairchild at guard. The other guard spot, with Ratledge out, probably comes down to a true freshman, Daniel Calhoun, or junior Micah Morris, with Morris being the more likely option.

Bama was finally able to put what most consider to be its best five on the field together against Wisconsin, and the results were quite good: Kadyn Proctor and Eljiah Pritchett will start at left and right tackle, Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts will start at the guards and Parker Brailsford will get the call at center.

Alabama will probably use Wilkin Formby at tackle to help keep Proctor and Pritchett, both of whom have been banged up this fall, as fresh as possible. The talent level between the starters here is probably a push, and with Ratledge out the depth situation tightens up significantly. But Alabama is still a work in progress, while Georgia’s line has been in the same system forever. And it probably matters here. Advantage: Georgia

DEFENSE

It’s the defense Bama used to have against the defense Bama has now. Georgia is a strict 3-4 over/under devotee, even though like most in the system, the Bulldogs have been forced to branch out into more even fronts, nickel sets and the like. Georgia is 4th in total defense, 1st in the country against the pass, 3rd in scoring defense and 10th in pass efficiency defense, but just 42nd against the run. Bama now operates from a 4-2-5 Swarm defense, which has seen the Crimson Tide rank 13th in total defense, 6th in scoring defense, 7th in raw pass defense, 5th in pass efficiency defense but 68th in rush defense. Similar numbers from much different concepts.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Prior to the start of the year, Georgia got a lot of votes for best defensive line in the conference, and perhaps that was just a side effect of program inertia. Whatever the case, the Bulldog line has not been up to recent standards, mediocre against the run and respectable, but not overwhelming, in sacks (30th) and tackles for loss (28th). In addition, starting DE Mykel Williams and top reserve DT Walter Brinson are going to be fractional at best for this game due to injury, as will reserve DT Jordan Hall. That leaves Georgia likely having to lean on Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins and two true freshman on one side, and having no experienced backup for Christen Miller on the other. Xzavier McLeod, with two assisted tackles on the year, is the only available backup for Miller if Brinson can’t go. The interior is in better shape, with Nazir Stackhouse anchoring there, but Georgia has not gotten enough production out of his backup, Jamaal Jarrett. Jarrett is a Terrence Cody clone in terms of build.

Alabama will counter with Tim Keenan and Tim Smith starting inside ahead of Damon Payne Jr., James Smith and Jehiem Oatis. Outside, Quandarrius Robinson and Jah-Marien Latham will start with Keanu Koht and L.T. Overton backing them up. Bama might get Qua Russaw back for this game at the Wolf spot, which is needed because a lot of Bama’s run containment issues have come from that spot. Alabama is 41st in sacks and 36th in tackles for loss, but is also getting better overall QB pressure in general from the front line than it has in recent years. The real question here is how much can Georgia get out of Williams and Brinson. If either one can step up on gameday and perform somewhere close to normal levels – Brinson is said to be in better shape at the moment than Williams – then Georgia should lead here. But it’s not by as much as some people think. Advantage: Georgia

LINEBACKERS
Alabama’s three-LB rotation inside of Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell and Justin Jefferson was expected to do great things coming into the year, and they haven’t disappointed. Campbell has developed into one of the most dynamic inside linebackers in the SEC, and may be atop the list. Lawson combines playmaking ability with his veteran status; he’s seen everything already. Jefferson’s spot role as a roving linebacker on passing downs makes him a mismatch for blockers; he’s quicker than many can deal with but also has the strength to get his nose inside the pile.

Georgia’s C.J. Allen and Smael Mondon are both quality players, but neither has been a presence in the backfield the way any of Alabama’s three has been. Alabama might also get reserve Jeremiah Alexander back for this game. Outside, Georgia’s Chaz Chambliss, Gabe Harris and Damon Wilson II have rotated at the Jack position, but have combined for only 1 sack. This just doesn’t feel like the typical Georgia linebacker unit. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Both teams have almost equal stats, but it would be fair to say a lot of pundits are waiting for the wheels to come off a bit for Alabama. Bama’s cornerbacks – Domani Jackson, Zabien Brown, DaShawn Jones and Jaylen Mbakwe – will get their first real test here, and what has some observers concerned is that Alabama has had issues so far with letting receivers get behind the coverage. Against Georgia, that will likely result in big plays given up if it were to happen.

Alabama’s safety play has been a highlight, with Malachi Moore having a solid final season, flanked by Keon Sabb and Devonta Smith. Rydarrius Morgan adds depth there. For Georgia, Daylen Everette and Julian Humphrey will start at the corners, with Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson at the high safeties and likely Joenel Aguero in the box, although JaCorey Thomas might end up getting the nod. The name to watch here is Starks, who has a good eye for ballhawking in addition to being solid in run support. He’s probably the marquee player among all DBs on both teams, although the Moore-Sabb combination for Alabama has been hard to beat.

Alabama probably is better than some of its critics say, but it’s also likely that some of Bama’s statistical prowess so far has been more due to the talent the Crimson Tide has faced at quarterback and receiver. The system change for Alabama also plays a part in our belief that Georgia has this category by a decent margin. Advantage: Georgia

SPECIAL TEAMS
Few punters are as good as Bama’s James Burnip, who is coming off a banner performance against Wisconsin. Graham Nicholson missed his only field goal attempt of the season in Madison last week, and so far hasn’t really been asked to anything else that would be considered high-pressure. Conor Talty has developed into a respectable kickoff specialist.

Alabama leads the nation in kickoff returns, although the sample size for that is somewhat depressed given the growing abilities of kickoff specialists across the country; there’s simply not as much work for returners as there used to be. Alabama ranks 52nd in punt returns, and there is a question of who will handle the job this week, as Cole Adams probably isn’t ready to return to the role just yet. Alabama’s net punting ranking of 5th nationally is indicative of not just Burnip’s abilities, but a solid punt return defense as well. Kickoff return defense, though, is not up to snuff (86th).

For Georgia, net punting comes in at 10th and punt returns at 49th, about equal numbers to Alabama. Kicker Peyton Woodring is 6-of-6 on field goal tries, including one from beyond 50. Both kick and punt return defensive statistics better those by Alabama. If receiver isn’t the closest call on the board, this one is. We’ll give the slight edge to Georgia right now due to the season Woodring is putting up. Advantage: Georgia

OVERALL

Georgia leads in five categories, Alabama in three, but both receiver and special teams are close enough to flip.

In regard to OL-DL cross-matchups, a lot of what happens will be determined by Georgia’s health. As it stands now, we see the Alabama DL as having a push situation with Georgia’s OL, thanks to the injury to Ratledge. Otherwise it would be a Georgia lean. Going the other way, it’s also a push situation, and again thanks to Georgia’s health across the DL unit. If the Bulldogs currently listed as probable and questionable show up ready to play, however, it would be a Georgia lean. Since TideFans.com added the OL-DL cross-matchups to our weekly previews, this is the first time we can remember both OL-DL comparisons winding up in stalemates.

That leaves us trying to balance what is probably an overall Georgia edge in the trenches with the fact that the game is in Tuscaloosa. It also leads us to consider that the game may turn somewhere else. Alabama’s secondary against the Georgia passing game is a prime candidate to be the catalyst for victory, and so is how Georgia’s second level on defense will handle Jalen Milroe if he starts making plays with his legs.

At press time, the Bulldogs were the betting favorite by a single point. That’s a good place to start with our prediction, as well. We think Alabama will be in it for the duration, but it’s hard to go with the new guy in town just yet over what is now probably the SEC’s most established contender.

Georgia 27
Alabama 26

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN

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