DEFENSE
As if this game didn’t have enough riding on it, there’s also the prominent subplot of Pete Golding returning to Tuscaloosa as Ole Miss defensive coordinator. Golding was embattled throughout his tenure at Alabama, but so far in 2023 Alabama hasn’t been any better or worse without him. Ole Miss uses 3-4 over/under concepts but also runs most of its sets out of a four-man front, which Golding was said to prefer prior to joining Alabama.
So far, the results in Oxford have been middling. The Rebels rank 66th in total defense, 64th in rushing defense and 82nd in raw pass defense. Pass efficiency defense, though, is 31st and the Rebels have been moderately effective at keeping opponents out of the end zone, ranking 32nd in scoring defense. They have struggled on third downs, however (81st).
Alabama is better across the board by a consistent amount – 45th in total defense, 56th in rushing defense and 37th in pass defense. Alabama is a bit worse in pass efficiency defense (44th) but ranks 26th in scoring defense and is better on third downs (48th).
DEFENSIVE LINE
The Rebels have a heavy collection of transfers across the entire team, and the defensive line room is particularly full of them. Former Alabama reserve Stephon Wynn Jr. first transferred to Nebraska and has now come to Ole Miss; he’ll start in the middle flanked by Auburn transfer J.J.
Pegues and Georgia Tech transfer Jared Ivey. Jamond Gordon (JUCO), Joshua Harris (North Carolina State) and Akelo Stone (Georgia Tech) round out an all-transfer two-deep across the board. Cedric Johnson and Reginald Hughes will split the Buck position, which is similar to Alabama’s Jack linebacker spot but is more of a traditional defensive end playing a roving position rather than a linebacker playing down.
Alabama is still feeling out its rotation, and will likely go with Tim Keenan in the middle flanked by Tim Smith and Justin Eboigbe, with James Smith, Damon Payne, Jah-Marien Latham and Jaheim Oatis, the latter of whom is coming off an injury that kept him out of the USF game, rotating in. Jordan Renaud made his debut against USF and could figure into the mix. Alabama has a bit more potential star power among its group, although neither team’s unit has really set itself apart in 2023.
A good measuring stick is Wynn, who would likely be second- or third-team at Alabama right now had he stayed; at Ole Miss, he’s a starter. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
The strength of the Alabama defense so far may be the inside linebackers, where four players – Deontae Lawson, Trezmen Marshall, Kendrick Blackshire and Jihaad Campbell – can rotate in at any time and be game-changers.
Against South Florida, OLB Dallas Turner began to get his season on track, so Alabama is now just waiting on Chris Braswell to get locked in. Quandarrius Robinson and Keanu Koht provide depth outside. Ole Miss will start Central Florida transfer Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste in the middle flanked by former Louisville player Monty Montgomery and James Madison transfer Isaac Ukwu. Ukwu is big enough to play defensive end when needed, so Ole Miss has some flexibility in its front and can roll between using two and five defensive linemen when needed.
Ashanti Cistrunk and TCU transfer Khari Coleman will provide depth inside, while Suntarine Perkins is the name to watch out of the group of reserve outside linebackers. Ole Miss hasn’t been bad but Bama is a lot better up the middle, which is what makes the final difference. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Another four transfers out of five total starters here for Ole Miss. Only free safety Trey Washington is homegrown; the rest all began their careers elsewhere. Lane Kiffin must have found something to like in Georgia Tech’s roster, because he got yet another starter from there, CB Zamari Walton. Former JUCO standout Deantre Prince starts opposite Walton.
Liberty transfer Daijahn Anthony and Miami-Ohio transfer John Saunders Jr. will start at the safety spots alongside Washington. For Alabama, Ga’Quincy McKinstry will start at one cornerback slot opposite probably Terrion Arnold, while Malachi Moore, Jaylen Key and Caleb Downs are set to start at safety. Trey Amos could start at corner, moving Arnold into either Downs’ or Key’s place, while Kristian Story and Devonta Smith provide depth at safety. Key has been banged up through the first quarter of the season and Alabama needs him healthy for the stretch drive, so look for his snaps to be managed.
Alabama’s stats and defensive metrics are eerily similar to Ole Miss’ at this point, particularly in the defensive backfield, but McKinstry is the best corner on either team and Moore is the best safety. Go with quality. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
At placekicker, Ole Miss has real depth, as Texas A&M transfer Caden Davis joined holdover Caden Costa to give the Rebels a 1-2 punch of Cadens. Together, they’re 6-of-7 on field goals with the only miss coming from outside 50 yards, perfect on PATs and kickoffs are virtually automatic touchbacks. What hasn’t been going well has been the punting. Fraser Masin is averaging less than 41 gross yards per kick, and throw in a little trouble covering punts and suddenly the Rebels rank 130th in net punting.
The Rebels rank 125th in punt return defense on the whole. Alabama has real potential in the punt return game with Ga’Quincy McKinstry, and the kickers – PK Will Reichard and P James Burnip – have been among the best in the country. As such, this category should be a big edge for the Crimson Tide. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in four categories, Ole Miss in four. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines hold edges over their opponents’ offensive lines, by roughly equal amounts. On paper, this is about as close to a push as you can get.
So what are the intangibles in play? Alabama needs a win to stay afloat in the national championship race. Nick Saban may need a win to convince him that the season is salvageable, and more importantly, that the job is still worth fighting for. Lane Kiffin, meanwhile, barely contains his affection for the Alabama job and would love to follow Saban at Alabama, and what better way to speed the transition along than to beat Alabama and get Saban thinking about the ducks in the yard in Lake Burton, Ga.?
Whether Alabama fans might want to think about such things, the fact of the matter is that this game is one of those milestone affairs that could hold particular importance on multiple fronts for multiple people and both programs. Ole Miss has beaten Saban in Tuscaloosa before – Hugh Freeze led the Rebels to an upset that was aided by a poor decision regarding Alabama’s starting quarterback (i.e., “The Cooper Bateman Game”) and a couple of plays where the ball (literally) bounced in ways that seemed to defy physics. It could easily do it again, especially if Saban’s decision to go back to Milroe at quarterback is the wrong one.
If Alabama loses here, the season is pretty much over. There is pride left to play for, and still the potential of a conference championship, but for a program that measures success in national hardware, a loss here puts the brakes on that pursuit immediately. Then, the focus shifts to trying to do a midseason postmortem of “The Process” and whether it still works, and if it can still work, why it didn’t in 2023.
Alabama can put all of that to rest with a win. The problem is, it will have to keep doing that on a weekly basis if it wants to chase another ring. One game at a time, yes – but this is a big one.
Alabama 30
Ole Miss 23
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