DEFENSE
The other change from last week to this, besides the Bulldog offensive line not being a shadow of its former self the way LSU’s was, is that the Bulldogs rank 6th in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, 4th in pass efficiency defense and 7th in raw pass defense. In other words, this is a vintage Mississippi State defense, whereas LSU’s was not. The Bulldogs’ “worst” defensive statistic is 18th against the run. This is a 4-3 base defense that features a strong front seven, strong enough to cover up some talent deficiencies in the secondary. Alabama’s 3-4 over/under was in full song against LSU, and aside from raw pass defense (30th), compares favorably with Mississippi State’s numbers across the board.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Mississippi State ranks 36th in sacks and 23rd in tackles for loss, solid numbers both. Most of the damage has been done by end Montez Sweat, who has recorded 9.5 sacks already and 7 QB hurries. Gerri Green, who will start opposite him, has 2.5 sacks. Jeffery Simmons came into the year expected to be the SEC’s top defensive lineman, and while he might not still be atop the heap, he has 9.5 tackles for loss and 5 QB hurries (but no sacks) from his tackle position.
If there’s a weakness here, it’s that Simmons’ partner at tackle, Braxton Hoyett, does not have the kind of production the Bulldogs really need from him. Backup tackle Cory Thomas offers quality depth, but Tre Brown has not stepped up, meaning there’s a significant fall-off from first to second team inside. The situation is better at end, where Kobe Jones, Fletcher Adams and Chauncey Rivers are all capable of being disruptive.
Alabama will counter with Quinnen Williams at tackle – remember the comment about Simmons no longer being considered the best tackle in the SEC? – and Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs at end. LaBryan Ray, Phidarian Mathis and Johnny Dwight will provide depth, but Ray has been the only one to really flash so far. This category is extremely close, almost a tossup given State’s superior depth, and comparing one to the other is challenging given Alabama’s pass rush is mostly either up the middle via Williams’ superior skill, or coming off the edge via linebackers moving down. Because of Williams, we give the nod to Bama, but not by much. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Alabama doesn’t miss on many in-state recruits but middle linebacker Erroll Thompson is probably one case where Bama would like a mulligan. Thompson is a 6’1”, 250-pound jackhammer in the middle that Bama has missed at times this year. He’s mostly a stopper against the run, but he has 2 interceptions on the year as well. Leo Lewis got benched for a time at weakside linebacker due to lapses in his coverage ability, and he’s still not the best at it, but what he gives MSU in run pursuit makes up the difference. Willie Gay starts at the strongside spot and is solid, although not really a standout. The Bulldog linebackers are somewhat secondary in impact plays to the defensive line, mostly by design of the defense. Tim Washington is really the only backup of note, and has production numbers similar to that of Gay.
Like Mississippi State, Alabama is lacking in depth, using just one or two players in addition to the starters. The LSU game was a breakout game for inside backers Mack Wilson and Dylan Moses, but last week’s responsibilities pale in comparison to what both will be asked to do this week. Alabama’s biggest improvement from the first of the season until now is arguably at the OLB positions, where Christian Miller has become a nightmare as a rush end, and Anfernee Jennings continues to improve his overall game. Jennings looked back to his Clemson performance levels last week. He still has some improvements to make in coverage, but Miller has more ground to make up.
Jamey Mosley and Eyabi Anoma will probably get work late as pass-rush specialists. Josh McMillon will back up both inside slots. If the LSU game wasn’t a one-off for the Tide’s linebackers, Bama probably comes out having the better group. But we won’t know that until we see this week’s efforts. Until then, Mississippi State has more experience inside and the biggest “star power” name on the sheet in Lewis. Advantage: Mississippi State
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Mississippi State is one of the few teams able to match Alabama’s length at cornerback. Both Cameron Dantzler and Jamal Peters are 6’2”, and Peters carries 220 pounds on that frame. The question is whether they’ll be able to match quicks-for-quicks with Alabama’s more athletic receivers. The safety duo of Johnathan Abram and Mark McLaurin are both productive tacklers, excellent in run support, but not exactly turnover kings in the secondary. Abram has 1 interception and McLaurin has forced 1 fumble; other than that, they’ve been mostly support players playing behind an impressive front seven. Jaquarius Landrews plays the nickel spot, and he’s probably the best freestyler of any of the Bulldog defensive backs. The question is whether he’ll play, as he’s yet another player listed “questionable with an undisclosed injury.”
Alabama will start Saivion Smith and Patrick Surtain II at corner, with Xavier McKinney and Deionte Thompson at the safety spots and Shyheim Carter at Star. Smith and Surtain have both developed into top-line SEC cornerbacks, with Surtain having one of the more impressive true freshman seasons in a long time. McKinney and Thompson have established reputations and both vicious hitters and able cover men. Carter is a turnover looking for a place to occur. Jared Mayden has dimeback responsibilities but MSU would seem to be better-served by keeping backs and tight ends in the game and keeping Alabama in nickel sets, so how much action he eventually sees is up for debate. MSU has exceeded expectations in the secondary this year, but again, much of that is the bonus of having a front seven so talented. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Surprisingly, MSU has had its own struggles at punter, where Tucker Day and Kody Schexnayder have combined for a gross punting average of below 38 yards per kick. The Bulldogs have struggled on punt returns and are mediocre at best in kickoff returns. But there’s little question the Bulldogs win the day at placekicker, where Jace Christmann has been reliable on all but long kicks.
Alabama has been fantastic in the return game, but kicking has been another story. Punter Mike Bernier continues to be serviceable, which is just fine. Placekicker Joseph Bulovas, on the other hand, continues to have issues. Alabama missed two extra points against LSU, the first from a bad hold and the second from a combination of a poor kick and a blown blocking assignment. Until Alabama can start to show some consistency in the actual kicking game, this category will be almost an automatic pick for the opposition. Advantage: Mississippi State
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Mississippi State in two, but aside from wide receiver there’s not a lot separating the individual units of these two teams. Alabama probably controls, by a smidge, both the OL-DL cross-matchups. Give credit to the Tide’s recent OL play for making that even thinkable.
But that’s not where the key matchup is this week. The key matchup is one we don’t talk about much, because it’s hard to say exactly who is competing against who. It involves State QB Nick Fitzgerald, but it’s not a matchup of him against the Tide secondary: It’s the matchup of Fitzgerald versus Alabama inside linebackers Dylan Moses and Mack Wilson. Specifically, what are the run fits going to look like.
Against LSU, Moses and Wilson diagnosed plays like experts and crashed the LSU offensive line time and again, bringing havoc when they did so. Against Mississippi State, they’ll need to appear similarly skilled, because Fitzgerald is good enough as a runner to punish defenses with soft middles.
Alabama fans might find it easy to sit back this week and look at the Bulldogs’ record and statistical ratings and wonder what all the fuss is about, but this MSU team seems to bring a different look every week. Part of that is Moorhead possibly being over his head; time will tell about that. But the rest is most likely just a function of a team changing coaching staffs, priorities and tendencies.
We think the result will be one of those uncomfortable wins, with the starters in much longer than they should be. But a win, at this point in the season, is really the only concern, no matter the margin.
Alabama 28
Mississippi St. 13
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