DEFENSE
It’s same-old, same-old so far for Texas A&M, who finished last year ranking in the 70-90 range in all important defensive categories. Mike Elko is coordinating a flex 4-2-5/4-3 defense for 2018, but problems persist in the pass defense, where the Aggies rank 91st in efficiency defense and 93rd in raw pass defense, evidence that they’re giving up both a lot of yards and also a lot of big plays. Total defense rings in at 48th, but the rush defense – 14th overall – has been a bright spot.
Alabama counters with … well, the same-old, same-old. Alabama’s 3-4 over/under ranks 23rd overall, 24th against the run and 7th in pass efficiency defense. Raw pass defense numbers have been higher (54th), but that discrepancy against the efficiency defense points to giving up a lot of empty yards in the middle of the field and then tightening the screws when it counts. To that point, the Crimson Tide is 2nd in the nation in red zone defense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Quinnen Williams has been a revelation in the middle of Alabama’s defensive line, stepping into Da’Ron Payne’s old role and arguably being more disruptive than Payne was. Williams is small for a nosetackle, but his quickness and strength have embarrassed three centers in a row.
Against Ole Miss, Raekwon Davis began to show signs of getting back to the level at which he left the 2017 season, and Isaiah Buggs’ versatility and knack for making a big play when it’s most needed makes him a stud at weakside end. If Alabama has a weakness, it’s depth; Tevita Musika and Phidarian Mathis are mere shadows compared to Williams in the middle. Outside, LaBryan Ray has done good work as Alabama’s fourth defensive lineman, but Johnny Dwight has been injured. Stephon Wynn Jr. returned last week and may begin to play more as the season progresses.
Texas A&M’s Daylon Mack and Justin Madubuike have been OK in the middle for the Aggies, mostly plugging holes, but it’s the ends – Landis Durham and Kingsley Keke – that have been disruptive. Keke is out of position a bit playing end, but he’s made it work. Tyree Johnson has been effective outside off the bench, but Bobby Brown is still learning. Inside, A&M hasn’t gotten much from T.D. Moton or Jayden Peevy. Both teams are effective – when the starters are in. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
A&M will play with three linebackers enough that you almost have to call this defense a 4-3 base rather than a full-time nickel. Otaro Alaka is finally putting together results that have been hoped for ever since he arrived on campus, but he’s still a good bit absent in the passing game; most of his best work comes against the run. The outside linebackers, Tyrel Dodson and Buddy Johnson, don’t have quite Alaka’s tackle counts, but they’re more dynamic and can get in the backfield, particularly against quarterbacks. Still, sacks (75th) and tackles for loss (61st) have trailed the league leaders; A&M needs to close the deal more when it has opportunities.
Alabama will start Mack Wilson and Dylan Moses inside, with Christian Miller and Anfernee Jennings getting most of the work outside. Wilson has struggled a bit at the start of this year, injuries doing him no favors. Moses has shown good instincts against the run but still gets lost in coverage. Jennings and Miller played very well against Ole Miss – Miller having the game of his life so far – and if they’re turned loose to get upfield without coverage responsibilities, they’re both hard for even the best offensive tackles to handle. Expect A&M to make them get out in space, however. Depth is a problem for both teams.
Hybrid safety/linebacker Larry Pryor and Keeath Magee will both play for A&M, and Pryor has a couple of big plays on his stat sheet already, but the two have combined for only 5 tackles. For Alabama, Josh McMillon stepped up in Wilson’s brief absence last week and gives Alabama a veteran middle linebacker option. Jamey Mosley continues to do well in small batches of work at outside linebacker. Eyabi Anoma looks ready to start getting some late-game rabbit rushing assignments. While Alabama has gotten off to a slow start somewhat, the Crimson Tide still is more dangerous as a unit. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
You can make a case for either team at positions all over the field … right up until you hit the secondary. It seems like forever since A&M has fielded a strong defensive backfield – so long ago, in fact, we can’t remember exactly when. Texas A&M has just 1 interception on the year – and it was by a linebacker, Larry Pryor. Safety Donovan Wilson has 2 tackles for loss and a sack, but no pass break-ups, not a good sign. The other safety, Derrick Tucker, has just 1 himself. Charles Oliver has the tendency to be boom-bust at cornerback, but he’s the best Texas A&M has. Debione Renfro lost his starting job from 2017 this spring, but has gotten it back in the fall. When A&M goes nickel, Deshawn Capers-Smith will play the spot, but that’s one more starter without a PBU so far.
Alabama, meanwhile, has been tested by at least two good quarterbacks so far in 2018 and has come up big both times. Patrick Surtain Jr. and Saivion Smith were running with the starters at cornerback this week and Trevon Diggs at Star, but Diggs might play corner and let Shyheim Carter handle star. While changing lineups is often a sign of instability, for Alabama, it’s due to the immense talent and competition in the defensive backfield. Deionte Thompson is establishing himself as the best safety in college football, and Xavier McKinney is slated to start alongside him. Jared Mayden and Daniel Wright add depth. Really no competition here. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Texas A&M is dealing with an oddity: a starting specialist on the injured list. Daniel LaCamera, the Aggies’ fine placekicker, is probably out for this game with a leg injury. Backup Seth Small is 2-for-2 so far on field goals, one of them from 40 yards out, so there isn’t a ton of worry. But it’s a situation worth watching if the game comes down to a big kick. The Aggies rank 2nd in the nation in net punting behind Braden Mann, who is averaging a whopping 51.7 yards per kick. Texas A&M has absolutely stunk in returns, 83rd in punt returns and 106th in kickoff returns. The Aggies do well in coverage, however. Alabama’s coverage and return teams are among the best in the business, and both Josh Jacobs (kickoffs) and Jaylen Waddle (punts) are a threat to score every time the ball is kicked to either of them.
Where Alabama has struggled – talk about same old, same old – has been in the actual kicking of the ball. Joseph Bulovas missed a short field goal against Ole Miss but rebounded to hit two later in that game; he still looks to be an upgrade over Austin Jones, who initially had the job at the start of the year. Punter Skyler DeLong has not kicked the ball well, and is taking too long to get punts off, which may become an issue soon. Don’t be surprised if Mike Bernier gets a shot if the struggles continue. Alabama is the better return team by far, but we heavily favor the kickers in this category over the returners. Advantage: Texas A&M
OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, Texas A&M in one. Alabama controls both OL-DL matchups, which will likely be the key to this game.
Basically, the only way Alabama loses here is if Kellen Mond catches absolute fire, and/or Tua Tagovailoa is knocked out of the game. Mond gave Alabama enough to think about last year, and he’s improved tenfold since then. Dual-threat quarterbacks with a lack of fear have caused Alabama trouble in the past (Stephen Garcia at South Carolina being the oft-cited example), so Alabama needs to have a good containment strategy in place coming in.
If Alabama can keep Mond neutral, the Crimson Tide will win easily. The Aggies simply aren’t getting the OL play they need to sustain drives, and the secondary can’t stop even mediocre passing attacks. If Tagovailoa starts raining missiles down on Texas A&M the way he has done to Alabama’s first three opponents, this might be another game where Jalen Hurts enters in the third quarter or even earlier.
Jimbo Fisher is a good coach with a good reputation. He just doesn’t have the horses for this race, not yet anyway.
Alabama 42
Texas A&M 17
READ MORE:
Return to Bama vs Texas A&M OFFENSE Preview
Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN