DEFENSE
The Red Wolves will base from a hybrid of a 3-4 over/under locked into nickel mode, and a 4-2-5, as smaller defensive backs are much easier to recruit than big linemen and linebackers. The Red Wolves performed adequately against the run in 2017 but were victimized by top passing offenses. It looks like more of the same in 2018 if the opener against Southeast Missouri State is to be believed.
Alabama brings its own version of the 3-4 over/under to the table, and for this game at least, expect Alabama to be permanently aligned in either nickel or dime itself. Alabama showed some minor flaws against Louisville, but was so quick and disruptive that it’s hard to see the Red Wolves keeping the Crimson Tide defense at bay.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Sophomore Hunter Moreton played solidly as a freshman and returns to anchor the middle of the line, while end Ronheen Bingham is an athletic phenom at end who had 2 sacks in the opener and has SEC-level speed off the endge. Moreton is nursing a foot injury, however, and would yield to Tony Adams if he can’t go. The other questions are whether Kevin Thurmon can anchor the other side, and whether William Bradley-King, who plays the hybrid LB/E “Bandit” position, is going to be up to the task week in and week out. Raw size isn’t a problem for this unit, but height is somewhat, as well as quickness.
Alabama counters with Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs at the ends and Quinnen Williams at nosetackle. Williams, the new starter last week, proved to be a disruptive force against Louisville and left fans wanting to see more. LaBryan Ray, Phidarian Mathis and Johnny Dwight offer depth along with Tevita Musika. Alabama is deeper, stronger and faster, to the surprise of no one. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
This might be the worst unit on the field for ASU, even with running backs included. Linebacker wasn’t in a good spot already even before graduation ate into the talent pool. Caleb Bonner and Tajhea Chambers, a pair of sophomores, will draw the starting assignments. Kirk Louis and Trent Ellis-Brewer will continue to push the starters, but size is a problematic across the board. Chambers appears most ready to assume a leadership position, but this unit hasn’t jelled yet.
Alabama will start Dylan Moses and Mack Wilson inside, with Anfernee Jennings and Christian Miller getting the start at outside linebacker. Jamey Mosley will back up the outside spots along with Eyabi Anoma and Cameron Latu, while Josh McMillon and Markail Benton figure as the primary backs in the middle.
Brandon Ale Keho should get some work there as well. Alabama had some breakdowns against Louisville, particularly in pass coverage from the inside linebackers, and that’s something that has to be worked out this week. McMillon may play a more prominent role going forward due to his time in the system. Either way, ASU doesn’t offer up much of a challenge here. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
It’s basically Justin Clifton and a cast of thousands for Arkansas State here. Clifton, the team’s starting nickel safety, is the defense’s most explosive playmaker, but returning strong safety B.J. Edmonds – who led the team in both tackles and interceptions in 2017 – is its most consistent. Michael Johnson and Darreon Jackson continue to fight over free safety, and Jackson could wind up at linebacker in a pinch.
The corners, Jeremy Smith and Brandon Byner, need work. True freshman Jevon Jones was pushing for a starting job at one time but didn’t play in the opener. Triston Anderson, another true freshman, is the third corner. There’s a lot of green here. Alabama has some experience issues of its own, but the Crimson Tide mostly did a fine job against veteran Louisville receivers in its opener.
Trevon Diggs and Saivion Smith will start at corner, with Deionte Thompson and Xavier McKinney at the safeties and Shyheim Carter at Star. Carter took an interception back for a touchdown last week, while Thompson has emerged as the guy to not throw at, for lack of a better way to state it.
If Alabama can get more consistent corner play, it will have this group figured out. Given Arkansas State’s problems here for multiple seasons, it’s not realistic to expect the Red Wolves to fix it during Alabama week. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams have issues to fix at placekicker. Alabama’s Austin Jones missed both a PAT and a field goal last Saturday, although problems with the hold probably killed the field goal attempt. To that end, expect a possible change at holder, with Mac Jones taking over for Tua Tagovailoa.
Skyler DeLong was acceptable in his first week taking over for the inimitable J.K. Scott. The return game was on point, with Alabama getting touchdowns on a kickoff return from Joshua Jacobs and a punt return from Jaylen Waddle, although Waddle’s return was called back for a blocking penalty.
Arkansas State’s return game was on display against SeMo, and the Red Wolves rank closely enough in comparison with Alabama that this can be a kicker competition. And in that regard, the Red Wolves have better options. Sawyer Williams missed his only field goal attempt and also missed a PAT, just like Bama’s Jones, but punter Cody Grace had a better day than did DeLong. If Alabama is still figuring out key personnel, the Red Wolves are already ahead of the game, but it’s not by much. Advantage: Arkansas State
OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, Arkansas State in one, and the OL-DL matchups both go strongly to the Crimson Tide. So strongly, in fact, that just the enormity of the advantage Alabama enjoys there would be enough to call this game for the Tide. Add in the talent at the skill positions and this is a mismatch.
Alabama’s secondary and linebackers will be tested in coverage, to be sure. Justice Hansen’s size and strength will make him a chore to bring down. But in the end, Alabama just has better players all over the field. Even the category Alabama loses, special teams, could easily flip the Tide’s way.
Alabama has a tendency to let down in Week 2 games after dismantling good opponents in the opener. It may very well happen again here, particularly in regards to early defensive lapses. But eventually, the Crimson Tide will wear down the Red Wolves and put the game away, yielding to substitutes and scout team players to finish things off.
Alabama 48
Arkansas St. 14
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Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN