Auburn preview: Alabama gets its toughest test where it least wants to see it

DEFENSE

Probably the biggest surprise here is that Kevin Steele has turned out to be a good defensive coordinator for Auburn. Harsh to say, but there was nothing in his resume that suggested such results when he took over. The Tiger defense is modeled on Saban’s 3-4 over/under, although Auburn probably relies a bit more on its four-man fronts. Auburn ranks 8^th in scoring defense, 10^th in total defense, 11^th in pass efficiency defense, 16^th in rushing defense and 20^th in raw pass defense.

This is a pressure-filled defense that almost completely eliminates guard-to-guard rushing attacks, a staple of Alabama’s offense. The Crimson Tide brings in a defense that ranks 1^st in scoring defense, 1^st in pass efficiency defense, 1^st in total defense, 2^nd in rushing defense and 3^rd in raw pass defense. Those numbers are nothing short of amazing, but injuries will equalize these two teams quite a bit this week.

DEFENSIVE LINE

The strength of the Tiger team starts right here, where Dontavius Russell and Derrick Brown are all but impenetrable at defensive tackle. Both players are a good mix of effectiveness against run and pass, with Brown the more balanced player and Russell shading more towards a run stopper.

If there’s an issue, it’s depth, where only Andrew Williams has been a regular rotation player, and he’s a clear step down from the two starters. Freshman Tyrone Truesdell adds another body, but his snap count is barely rotation-level. At end, Marlon Davidson is an every-down player, and Nick Coe and Big Kat Bryant – yes, that’s the official name you’ll find everywhere he’s referenced in official AU documents – are hybrid players who can help Auburn field a true 4-3 when needed.

The “Buck” position for Auburn is similar to Alabama’s Jack linebacker, but in Auburn’s case, Jeff Holland shades more toward a true defensive end than a linebacker. He’s come out of nowhere to be Auburn’s most effective defensive player – 12 tackles for loss, 9 sacks, and an eye-popping 19 QB hurries on the year. If there’s a weakness here, it’s that Auburn doesn’t play the run outside the tackles with the same efficiency as between them, but the difference isn’t much.

Alabama counters with Da’Ron Payne in the middle flanked by Isaiah Buggs and Raekwon Davis on the ends. Injuries have been felt here; Da’Shawn Hand is back but hasn’t been 100 percent since his return. LaBryan Ray is out for this game and maybe the season as well. That leaves Quinnen Williams and Joshua Frazier as the other bench players, maybe with Johnny Dwight and Jamar King helping out in some way. Alabama’s Payne may be the best pure tackle overall on either team, but Auburn runs away with the consistency category, and the Tigers are much healthier at the moment. Advantage: Auburn

LINEBACKERS

This looked to be a runaway for Auburn until a couple of things happened last Saturday: Alabama is threatening to get at least one of its four injured linebackers back, and Auburn may have lost a key starter in the win over Louisiana-Monroe. Auburn’s Tre Williams has only played in 8 games this year as is, battling a shoulder injury, and he’s hurt again. Assuming he plays at all, he’ll be limited.

If he’s out, Auburn will rotate its group around to have strongside linebacker Darrell Williams stay on the field at all times rather than come out for nickel personnel. In the middle is Deshaun Davis, but he isn’t 100 percent, either. If he can’t go, either K.J. Britt or Richard McBryde will have to take on a much-increased role. Chandler Wooten adds depth.

For Alabama, we were prepared to talk about the lineup this way: Anfernee Jennings at Jack linebacker, Rashaan Evans and Dylan Moses at the inside spots, and Jamey Mosley at strongside backer. Christian Miller, Terrell Lewis and Mack Wilson were all out, but on the cusp of return at some point. Well, that point might be right now. Miller and Lewis have been sitting out since the opener with arm injuries, and are the closest to being ready to contribute, Miller above all others. He’ll surely play with enough protective gear on to make him look like he’s helping train police dogs how to bite safely, but watching him on Bama’s sidelines for the last month, it’s been hard to tell he was ever hurt.

Regardless if Lewis plays much this week, if Alabama beats Auburn and qualifies for the SEC Championship Game, both of these players are blood-bet certainties to play against Georgia. The wild card here is Wilson, because his presence makes Alabama five times better against the inside run. Wilson’s injury is more touch-and-go; it’s a foot injury, not what a middle linebacker needs to be dealing with, but he’s near the end of his initial rehab estimate. Assume none of the three start, but Miller and Lewis play and Wilson maybe in certain packages.

We’d go so far as to say Miller’s presence is expected, Lewis would be no surprise, and – miraculously – Wilson is a 50/50 shot. That would leave only Shaun Dion Hamilton fully out of the picture. Now the real question is how effective they’ll be, because there will be the inevitable rust to shake off, and in the meantime, Alabama still doesn’t truly know what it has at MLB in the form of Moses, a fantastic athlete but not exactly ready for prime time. For that reason, take Auburn on a slight edge, as the Tigers have grown accustomed to dealing with their personnel issues over the course of the season. Advantage: Auburn

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Auburn’s stats are much better than the actual talent allows for. A large part of the Tigers’ success is due to opposing quarterbacks getting harassed into oblivion by the Auburn front seven. There’s an injury issue this week, too, as nickelback Jeremiah Dinson may be out after suffering a concussion against ULM. If he can’t go, Auburn will either have to start Daniel Thomas at nickel, or move a cornerback there – most likely Javaris Davis – and start Jamel Dean in his place.

Auburn doesn’t pick off many passes – the Tigers rank 97^th there – and there is a bubbling creek of inconsistency that runs through this unit. The best player this year has been veteran CB Carlton Davis, but safety Stephen Roberts has been highly effective in run support. Neither Dinson nor Tray Matthews has been particularly special, and Daniel Thomas is more of a placeholder than a star. Veteran reserve Nick Ruffin has some of the best per-snap efficiency in this unit.

Alabama will start Anthony Averett and Levi Wallace at corner, with Ronnie Harrison and Minkah Fitzpatrick the primary safeties and Hootie Jones and Tony Brown playing the nickel and dime roles. This game will sternly test Jones’ and Brown’s ability to lock up with Auburn’s inside receivers. Fitzpatrick isn’t at 100 percent, but Alabama sat him against Mercer and all reports suggest he’ll be able to play his many roles in this game without issue. If Fitzpatrick somehow runs into trouble in this game, look for Deionte Thompson or Shyheim Carter to get some action. Auburn has good stats, but Alabama is better across the board. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS

Here we go again with kicker issues at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Alabama’s Andy Pappanastos is just a “maybe” for this game after being a late scratch against Mercer. If he can’t go, J.K. Scott will have to handle all kicking duties. Scott has leapt back to the top of the punting world, once again a Ray Guy Award nominee, and has become a weapon on kickoffs. His accuracy as a kicker is unknown, as Alabama has only used him on the odd PAT or long field goal attempt.

Pappanastos had become relatively automatic inside of 40 yards, so this hurts. Alabama also lost top coverage unit gunner Daniel Wright against Mercer, but Wright is not listed among the wounded this week.

Auburn is slightly better than Alabama in the return department – and Alabama still has fumbling issues with Xavian Marks at punt returner – but the Tigers are shockingly horrid at covering kicks and punts. Given special teams has been a consistent hallmark for Auburn football for nigh 30 years, this is an unforeseen development to say the least.

Punters Aidan Marshall and Ian Shannon have both been greatly disappointing for Auburn, but placekicker Daniel Carlson is one of the nation’s best placekickers. If Pappanastos hadn’t gotten hurt prior to Mercer, we’d call this category for Alabama, absolutely. But with that kind of uncertainty staring Alabama in the face – to say nothing of Alabama’s past issues kicking the ball in this stadium – we just can’t do it. Advantage: Auburn

OVERALL

Alabama leads in five categories, Auburn in three. Each team’s DL controls the respective matchup with the other’s OL, and by about equal margins at that.

Played on a neutral field, Alabama is a touchdown better at least. The Tigers just don’t have Alabama’s talent at offensive line, wide receiver or defensive back. And if Alabama was bringing healthy linebackers to this game, the margin would likely grow even more.

But the game isn’t on a neutral field and the history of this series – and we mean recent history at that – shows just what kind of home-field advantage the Tigers have crafted for themselves. Alabama was upset here in 2013, and despite the external factors, a bad day at the office for the officiating crew didn’t help Auburn make key plays or refuse to quit in the face of playing what was perhaps Nick Saban’s best Bama team at the time. The 2015 game, which Alabama won but had to score late to make the margin look pretty, saw Auburn hang in for much longer than anyone thought they would. And let’s not even discuss the near-disaster the 2009 game almost became.

Part of this is due to it simply being a rivalry atmosphere, and this particular rivalry may be the nastiest on planet Earth. But Alabama tends to play tight in Jordan-Hare Stadium and the coaching staff has had an issue with getting out over their skis in this rivalry as a whole.

With Alabama again facing questions at kicker, to say nothing of the questions at linebacker, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a classic Jordan-Hare nail-biter that would see Alabama having to either hold onto the reins in the face of a late comeback, or storm the length of the field to get a go-ahead score.

And that’s where this might just turn. For whatever else Jalen Hurts may or may not be as a quarterback, he continues to show rare steel (and brass) in the fourth quarter of close games. Hurts’ last snap in January against Clemson saw him walking into the end zone for what at the time was the go-ahead touchdown. His late, game-winning drive against Mississippi State two weeks ago once again confirmed both his poise and the danger his dual-threat capabilities pose to opposing defenses.

If it comes down to that, Alabama blood pressures might not like it, but Auburn fans may end up liking it far less. And if Alabama finds a healthy linebacker or two this week, maybe the margin we pick below can extend a bit into breathable territory.

Alabama 21
Auburn 18

READ MORE: Return to Bama @ Auburn OFFENSE Preview

Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN