MSU preview: Bulldogs can be explosive, but can also self-destruct

DEFENSE

Mississippi State has moved to a three-down look, which has become somewhat of a cause celebre in the SEC as teams rush to mimic Alabama’s famous 3-4 over/under. But there has been no controversy in Starkville; the Bulldogs have made the transition work. MSU ranks 7^th in total defense, 8^th in raw pass defense, 14^th in scoring, 17^th in pass efficiency defense and 23^rd in rushing defense. If there’s any issue here, it’s size in a few spots across the front seven, but it hasn’t been enough to matter yet. Alabama ranks 1^st in scoring defense, 1^st in pass efficiency defense, 2^nd in rushing defense, 2^nd in total defense and 9^th in raw pass defense. But injuries in the linebacker group may make those numbers rise going forward.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Jeffery Simmons is probably more at home playing outside, but with no one else available who can play nosetackle, he’ll start in the middle for the Bulldogs here. He’ll also slide outside in some scenarios, though, flipping with Braxton Hoyett, who can also play the middle. Fletcher Adams will get the weakside end role. Kobe Jones, Tre Brown and Grant Harris form the second line, and Cory Thomas, who started the first two games and then missed most of two months, should be back to add depth for this game. The one shortcoming of this group is the pass rush; Simmons has 3.5 sacks, which is more than the rest of the defensive line combined, and Mississippi State ranks just 70^th in that category.

Alabama will start Da’Ron Payne in the middle, with Raekwon Davis on one side and some combination of Isaiah Buggs and Da’Shawn Hand on the other. Hand returned to action against LSU after a month out, and didn’t look like the same guy. Buggs is more effective now, and will probably get the lion’s share of the snaps there this week. Joshua Frazier, Quinnen Williams and LaBryan Ray will be the primary backups. Simmons is a true beast, but Alabama has more quality overall than what MSU has surrounding him. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS

Both teams start four linebackers but Mississippi State has been more committed to playing both outside linebackers in more situations, whereas Alabama frequently subs in extra safeties or tackles. For the Bulldogs, Leo Lewis and Dez Harris get the call in the middle, with Montez Sweat and Gerri Green playing outside. Somewhat surprisingly, most of the damage gets done by the two outside players. Leo Lewis has been mostly lost in the shuffle this year, battling some nagging injuries but also being somewhat boxed out of plays. Harris leads the team in tackles but hasn’t made many impact plays.

The Sweat/Green combination outside, however, has combined for 15.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Both get after the passer, affect him even when no sack is made and help set the edge against the run. Considering Lewis was the only returning starter in the front seven heading into 2017, this is more or less a miracle result. Green is listed as questionable for this week’s game, but is expected to play.

Alabama will counter with Rashaan Evans at one of its inside positions and Anfernee Jennings and Jamey Mosley on the outside. The other inside slot is somewhat of a mystery at the moment, thanks to a season-ending injury to Shaun Dion Hamilton last week and a regular-season-ending injury to Mack Wilson. Right now, Keith Holcombe appears to be the new middle linebacker. Depth at inside linebacker, at this point, is one guy: true freshman Dylan Moses. VanDarius Cowan was playing alongside him early this week in practice, after having been exclusively a rabbit rusher at strongside linebacker prior.

There are a couple of other options for Alabama to help replace Hamilton inside; Mosley has played inside before, and could slide back over. Joshua McMillon started his career at inside linebacker before becoming Mosley’s backup outside. All options are on the table, including true freshman Christopher Allen and redshirt freshman Ben Davis. Even Keaton Anderson, a safety by trade, could wind up getting some linebacker snaps. Until we know what Alabama has left, we’ve got to go with the known quanity, even if MSU’s designated playmaker, Leo Lewis, has largely been silent. Advantage: Mississippi State

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Here’s where it gets tough to tell what’s real and what isn’t: Mississippi State ranked 120^th nationally against the pass in 2016, dead last in the SEC. This year, the Bulldogs rank near the top of the conference and lead the SEC in defensive touchdowns. Jamal Peters, Tolando Cleveland and Lashard Durr will handle the assignments at cornerback, while Brandon Bryant, Johnathan Abram and Mark McLaurin will split safety duties. Abram will miss the first half of the game due to a targeting foul he received in the second half of the UMass game. J.T. Gray will provide depth at safety and take Abram’s snaps in the first half, while Chris Rayford helps out at corner. There’s a lot of depth here for the Bulldogs.

Alabama counters with Anthony Averett and Levi Wallace at corner, with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Ronnie Harrison, Hootie Jones and Tony Brown in the safety spots. Brown will also back up at corner along with Trevon Diggs. Fitzpatrick was banged up against LSU, but has practiced all week and should be ready to go. Both teams have a lot of depth and have made dynamic plays on a consistent basis this year, but Alabama has been more consistent overall. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS

Aside from kicking, the Bulldogs have been strong in every element of special teams, from punt and kickoff coverage to returns to net punting. Alabama has had issues in the return game, mostly in regards to amassing return yardage but there’s still some breath-holding to do anytime Xavian Marks, Henry Ruggs or Trevon Diggs goes back on a punt return.

Alabama’s net punting numbers have skyrocketed up in recent weeks thanks to the absolute clinic J.K Scott has been putting on. As far as placekicking goes, Alabama’s Andy Pappanastos has been one of the SEC’s best stories this year, perfect from inside 40 yards and improving to 4-of-7 from beyond 40 yards in recent weeks.

As for the Bulldogs, Jace Christmann replaced Tucker Day in Week 3 and never looked back. Christmann is a perfect 8-of-8 on field goal tries with a long of 45. Punter Logan Cooke has been solid. The Bulldogs’ overall strength, including the return game, takes it here, especially with Alabama still working around injury issues at punt returner. Advantage: Mississippi State

OVERALL

Alabama leads in five categories, Mississippi State in three, making this the most even matchup Alabama has faced so far in 2017. Each team’s DL controls the matchup with the other’s OL.

Suddenly, this game looks like a classic trap game for a couple of reasons, both internal and external. Externally, Alabama is reeling from problems caused by the injury situation of its linebacker group. Alabama is one key LB injury away from that group being a net negative on the defense rather than a positive, and certainly rather than the strength of the defense – which is exactly what it was heading into the Florida State opener. Alabama hopes to get Christian Miller and/or Terrell Lewis back for the postseason, but Alabama has to get to the postseason first, and in Tuscaloosa, postseason means the final four and nothing short of it.

Mississippi State is strong on both lines of scrimmage, QB Nick Fitzgerald is better than his numbers indicate and the back end of the Bulldog defense has been playing over their heads. Add in solid special teams, and suddenly this looks like a potential upset in the making.

Is Mississippi State good enough to beat Alabama? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not. The biggest thing in Alabama’s favor is that the Bulldog wideout group is not capable of consistently making plays against Alabama’s secondary, which allows the defense to focus down on the running game and Fitzgerald’s dual-threat capabilities.

Thus we go back to the nature of MSU’s 2017 season: Seven convincing wins, two ugly losses. What happened in those losses to Georgia and Auburn that made Mississippi State look not just like a lesser team, but barely competitive? The answer is that those are two of the best anti-spread defenses in the conference, from talent to scheme to the fact Auburn sees a similar offense in practice every day. Even with Alabama’s losses at linebacker, the Crimson Tide is close enough to Auburn and Georgia in makeup that Alabama ought to be able to contain the Bulldog attack and come out on top.

Alabama 31
Mississippi St. 20

READ MORE: Return to Bama @ MSU OFFENSE Preview

Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN