SECCG preview: Hobbled Gators are living on a prayer offensively

Hey Coach Radio Show Pre-SEC Championship Game

DEFENSE

Despite getting former Nick Saban pupil Geoff Collins as defensive coordinator, Florida has stuck mostly with a 4-man front to its defense, almost a traditional 4-3, rather than the 3-4 over/under championed by Saban. Whatever the reason, it has worked: Florida ranks 3^rd in pass defense, 3^rd in pass efficiency defense, 5^th in scoring defense, 6^th in total defense and 31^st in rushing defense. Teams typically get by Florida; they don’t dominate the Gators, and when scoring goes up, it’s usually the fault of Florida’s inept offense for giving opponents too many possessions. Alabama’s 3-4 scheme is responsible for rankings of 1^st in total defense, 1^st in rushing defense and 1^st in scoring defense, along with 8^th in pass efficiency defense and 11^th in raw pass defense. This isn’t good-versus-good, it’s exceptional-versus-exceptional.

DEFENSIVE LINE

The one flaw in the Gators’ system has been up front, where the defensive line has been of good quality, but not necessarily great. And now, more injuries to report. DE Jordan Sherit injured a knee and will miss this game; along with him, gone are 3.5 sacks on the year as well as the fourth-most tackles for loss and yardage lost. Reserve end Bryan Cox Jr. has been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury; if he does play, he won’t be close to 100 percent. With Sherit out, freshman Jabari Zuniga will step into a starting role. He’s a slender-built edge rusher who has been highly effective as a spot pass rusher (8.5 sacks, tied for the team lead) but is vulnerable against the run.

Keivonnis Davis will start opposite him; Davis’ production has not been what Florida expected. Khairi Clark and Caleb Brantley will start at tackle. Brantley has been the breakout player here, tying Zuniga for the team lead in sacks. Clark, however, needs to get more consistent. Joey Ivie and Taven Bryan will provide depth inside, while CeCe Jefferson will have to step up at end, perhaps Antonneus Clayton as well. Sherit’s loss here is huge.

Alabama will start Da’Ron Payne in the middle, flanked by Dalvin Tomlinson and Jonathan Allen. Da’Shawn Hand and Joshua Frazier will be the primary backups, with Dakota Ball and Raekwon Davis providing depth. Anyone who saw the snuff film that was the highlight reel of Alabama’s DL working against Auburn last week knows this is the strength of the Alabama defense. Florida has a good group, but with no Sherit, and likely no Cox, either, this almost gets into mismatch territory. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS

So, let’s talk about injuries again. Starters Alex Anzalone and Jarrad Davis are out for this game, and now comes word that Daniel McMillian may be as well. In McMillian’s case, it’s a shoulder injury, which is a nightmare for any linebacker to play through. Florida is already battling inexperience at the key middle linebacker position, where freshman David Reese has started but has been marginal at times. Florida’s depth situation at linebacker has been nonexistent all season, to the point that the Gators frequently line up in a 4-2-5 look not because of the offense, but because there aren’t enough linebackers to operate otherwise.

Kylan Johnson is listed as both the starter at strongside linebacker and the primary backup to both McMillian and Reese, so logic dictates he can’t start in both his own slot and McMillian’s, too. Most likely, Florida will just go full-time nickel and hope for the best (Bo Scarbrough’s smile will light up the Georgia Dome by itself, if true); if not, Johnson will start at weakside and Vosean Joseph will get the call at strongside. Christian Garcia is the only other player here with experience, and his is primarily on special teams. Of the injured, Davis may be the one closest to being ready to activate.

Alabama will start Reuben Foster and Shaun Dion Hamilton inside, with Ryan Anderson, Tim Williams, Anfernee Jennings, Christian Miller and Terrell Hall working at outside linebacker. Rashaan Evans will be available for both duties. Again, not much of a comparison here given Florida’s health concerns. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS

This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Florida could be without two starters here. Safety Nick Washington and nickelback Duke Dawson are both in questionable/doubtful purgatory, as is chief backup safety Jeawon Taylor. This comes after Marcus Maye was lost for the season two weeks ago. Even with all this carnage, the cornerback duo of Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson is second to none, and safety Marcell Harris is a guy who might not be a household name, but who is a punisher in this defense. Chauncey Gardner becomes the top backup just about everywhere, and starting nickel, thanks to all the injuries. Chris Williamson is also available at corner. The real problem becomes identifying a true backup safety (Gardner, like Williamson, is a corner). Another corner, Joseph Putu, could be forced into action there. Walk-on Michael Iorio is the only other player on the roster who has seen action other than freshman Mcarthur Burnett, who played in the opener and not once since.

Alabama, though, is dealing with its own issues here. With Eddie Jackson out, Minkah Fitzpatrick continues to start at safety next to Ronnie Harrison, with Laurence Jones and Deionte Thompson the backup safeties. The issue this week is at corner, though, where Marlon Humphrey injured a hamstring against Auburn and hasn’t practiced yet. If he’s out, walk-on Levi Wallace will start opposite Anthony Averett. The real issue then becomes depth, as Shyheim Carter was out for the Auburn game. Aaron Robinson and Jared Mayden would be the next names up and neither has played a bunch. Wallace has looked like a scholarshipped player every time he’s been given an opportunity to play, but the coaches would prefer Humphrey be available to go. Close call here, but Florida has done a better job overall managing opposing passing attacks and Tabor and Wilson are capable of shutting down Alabama’s best receivers. Advantage: Florida

SPECIAL TEAMS

Eddy Pineiro, who Florida stole away from Alabama, has been a revelation at kicker, going 18-for-22 overall including a perfect 3-for-3 from beyond 50 yards. Punter Johnny Townsend is averaging 47.6 yards per punt and is the closest thing to an equal that Alabama’s J.K. Scott has in this conference. Florida’s return game hasn’t been great, but neither has Alabama’s outside of what Eddie Jackson – who is no longer available – brought to the table. Neither team covers kickoffs well, but Florida has been much better at punt return defense (46^th) than has Alabama (116^th). The Crimson Tide will use Scott for punts and Adam Griffith, who is on a mini-streak at the moment, at placekicker. With Townsend and Scott basically a wash, it comes down to Pineiro versus Griffith, and Pineiro wins that battle. Advantage: Florida

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, Florida in two, although the defensive back category is mostly a toss-up. Alabama DL strongly controls its matchup against the Florida OL, while it’s no better for Florida than a push going to the other way (and Alabama’s OL might actually control the matchup slightly against Florida’s depleted DL).

If this looks like a non-competitive game from 30 feet up, it probably should. The SEC East was a minefield of mediocrity all year long, and Florida just managed to survive it. How the Gators got by LSU is anyone’s guess – it likely had to do with the utter disrespect LSU showed Florida during the rescheduling process. That kind of animosity isn’t present this week, as Florida and Alabama have sounded like the Mutual Admiration Society in media interviews.

What this comes down to, simply, is how Alabama’s secondary will handle Florida’s receivers, and whether Austin Appleby can get hot enough to make something of those matchups, especially if Marlon Humphrey is out. If Alabama struggles to stop the pass, it might open up the run just enough for Florida to make some noise. As such, it’s critical for Alabama’s front seven to get immediate and severe pressure on Appleby, who tends to wilt in the face of it.

If Alabama allows Florida to cultivate any kind of offensive balance, however, this could turn into a long day. Alabama should win regardless, but Florida is not Florida International. This is a talented program with a lot of team speed and a good coaching staff.

Look for a close game early on, with Alabama slowly building a lead and Florida being ill-prepared to answer scoring drives.

Alabama 27

Florida 7

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Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN