By Jess Nicholas, TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Sept. 12, 2012
Flash backwards, if you will, to Friday, Sept. 7, a day before Arkansas hosted Louisana-Monroe in Little Rock at the Razorbacks’ version of Legion Field. Arkansas coaches had just finished calling Jacksonville State and ULM “preseason” opponents, the Razorbacks were talking championship and Alabama fans were still wondering about the makeup of its secondary and whether it could slow down superstar Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson.
Two days later, the world looked much different. Arkansas is 1-1. ESPN’s GameDay crew, originally scheduled to be in Fayetteville, called an audible and headed elsewhere, said at press time to be Knoxville for Tennessee-Florida. Tyler Wilson, hit so hard by a ULM defender that he started conversing with the ghost of William Shatner – who isn’t even dead yet. Arkansas head coach John L. Smith trying to balance worrying about his current job with a trip to bankruptcy court.
In other words, a genuine Ozark circus.
Alabama enters the center ring Saturday, hoping not to become the answer to the trivia question, “Who did the 2012 Arkansas team beat the week after losing to Louisiana-Monroe at home?”. The Tide still has questions in its secondary, but has now added questions about its own ability to pass-protect. Arkansas has a dilemma at quarterback, a brewing controversy at running back and a defense that smells like five-week-old fish.
The Razorbacks have the talent to make things difficult for Alabama, but are their heads in the game?
OFFENSE
Arkansas is still running a passing spread attack under offensive coordinator Paul Petrino, but some of the crisp timing and intuitive playcalling that were hallmarks of his brother’s offense in recent seasons is simply not there. Arkansas is leaning too much on the pass and has been too quick to abandon the running game, a strategy that won’t work this week if Wilson is out. Alabama counters with its pro-style attack that will be undergoing some significant tweaking in light of Jalston Fowler’s season-ending injury. Alabama looked well-balanced in the opener, but struggled running the football against Western Kentucky.
QUARTERBACKS
If Tyler Wilson were 100 percent for this game, we would praise Alabama’s A.J. McCarron for a good start to 2012, call the category for Arkansas and move on. But Wilson won’t be 100 percent, and might not even play at all. He suffered a fairly significant concussion against Louisana-Monroe and hasn’t practiced much, if at all, since then, but he wants to play against Alabama and shouldn’t be counted out until kickoff. The Arkansas coaches have their backs to the wall and if they can get away with playing Wilson from a medical perspective, will. Wilson is a big body with a big arm and unending toughness, but hasn’t been cleared yet to play. If he can’t go, either freshman Brandon Allen, who isn’t ready, or Brandon Mitchell, who is just now moving back from wide receiver, will have to take the reins. Allen is cut from the same mold as Wilson, but Mitchell is a runner first, and Arkansas would likely take on a zone-read look with its offense to compensate for Mitchell’s different skill set. Alabama counters with McCarron, who has had two impressive showings so far and has improved his downfield accuracy. The backup situation is a bit up in the air; Phillip Ely was the backup for Week 1, but Blake Sims came off the bench first in Week 2. Like Arkansas, the offense changes depending on whether Ely or Sims plays, with Sims running a zone-read package against Western Kentucky. Right now, given the questions surrounding Wilson’s health, Alabama takes this category despite Arkansas still having better depth. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Knile Davis just isn’t the same running back he was pre-knee injury, and in fact, isn’t the best running back on his team at the moment. Dennis Johnson has looked much better and much more effective, but at last report, Davis will continue to start and get most of the snaps at the position. Ronnie Wingo Jr. is also available as a big back, but Wingo has never quite lived up to his prep billing. What Arkansas doesn’t have anymore is a fullback, as both Kiero Small and Kody Walker are out with leg injuries. As such, the Razorbacks will probably use two-tight end or three-wide sets. Morgan Linton is still available at the fullback slot, but he is limited. Alabama counters with Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon at tailback. The two had a solid debut against Michigan in the opener, but were less effective against Western Kentucky. Lacy still appears to be favoring his turf toe injury, while Yeldon continues to learn the ropes of college football. With Jalston Fowler out for the year, Alabama loses its fullback and also its big-back option on third downs. As a result, Dee Hart and true freshman Kenyan Drake will probably see more action. Neither group has lived up to expectations, and both have to account for injuries this week. When in doubt, go with experience. Advantage: Arkansas
WIDE RECEIVERS
While Arkansas has a solid group, it’s still well off the level of the 2011 team. Cobi Hamilton is the leader of the wideouts and has accounted for 112 yards in two games, but the surprise contributor has no doubt been tight end Chris Gragg, who has caught 14 balls for 193 yards (13.8 avg) and 2 touchdowns so far. Brandon Mitchell has made some big plays, but he’ll probably stick at quarterback for the time being. If he plays wideout, he gives Arkansas a big, physical body that will be a tough matchup for smaller corners. Javontee Herndon and true freshman MeKale McKay round out the top group for Arkansas. McKay is 6’6”, but weighs less than 200 pounds and can be moved around by press coverage. Demetrius Wilson and Keante Minor add depth, while Austin Tate backs up Gragg at tight end. Alabama counters with a deep receiving corps headed by Kevin Norwood, DeAndrew White and Christion Jones at wideout and Michael Williams at tight end. Kenny Bell, Amari Cooper and Marvin Shinn provide depth at receiver, while Brian Vogler should see his playing time go up this week with the loss of Fowler at fullback. H-back Kelly Johnson figures to get a lot of new work as well, but when the Crimson Tide goes true Ace in formation, Vogler will probably work more alongside Williams. Alabama’s receivers don’t have eye-popping size, but they are physical and all have good hands. Hamilton is probably the best of either team at the moment, and Gragg’s development has been welcomed, as it was somewhat unexpected. The move of Mitchell back to quarterback will throw a wrench in things, as Alabama has better depth. Advantage: Arkansas
OFFENSIVE LINE
Alabama’s offensive line has been erratic in two games, particularly in pass protection at the tackle slot. Footwork has been an issue for both LT Cyrus Kouandjio and RT D.J. Fluker. The middle of the line, though, has been rock solid, with center Barrett Jones flanked by Chance Warmack and Anthony Steen. Arkansas’ line, though, has been a major disappointment, both in run blocking and the inability to keep opposing defenders off the quarterback. Tackles David Hurd and Brey Cook have been more suspect than Kouandjio and Fluker have been for Alabama, while the middle of the line – guards Tyler Deacon and Alvin Bailey and center Travis Swanson – need to get better all around. Arkansas holds an experience edge in depth, but Alabama’s second team would easily win a contest of quality against Arkansas’ second unit. As for the starters, Alabama is better, anyway, and the Tide has far better potential than the Razorbacks to get better. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
Arkansas runs a 4-3 scheme, and in the preseason, Razorback coaches talked a lot about getting more physical. It hasn’t happened yet. The Razorbacks have been horrid against the pass and mediocre against the run, and injuries have begun taking their toll. Alabama counters with a 3-4 over/under scheme that has been solid up front and effective, for the most part, in the secondary, although minor improvements could still be made.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Whether it’s scheme, raw talent or what have you, Arkansas’ defensive line just isn’t on the same level as Alabama’s. The Razorbacks have a decent tackle combination in D.D. Jones and Byran Jones, and depth is good behind them, with Robert Thomas, Alfred Davis, Lavunce Askew and Jared Green providing experienced backup. The pass rush has been decent, but ends Trey Flowers and Chris Smith have been unable to stop both the run and pressure the passer effectively. Colton Miles-Nash is the chief backup outside. Alabama counters with Jesse Williams in the middle, and a rotation of Ed Stinson, Quinton Dial and Damion Square at end. Jeoffrey Pagan and D.J. Pettway provide depth outside, while Brandon Ivory and Darren Lake back up Williams. There isn’t a soft spot in the bunch, and special notice should be taken of Pettway’s pass-rushing abilities, as he resembles a young Wallace Gilberry coming off the edge. Arkansas has the talent to improve, but Alabama is already several steps ahead. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
On paper, Arkansas appears to have the edge in experience. Even if that’s true, the Razorbacks certainly aren’t getting better bang for their buck. Alabama’s C.J. Mosley, Nico Johnson and Trey DePriest have choked up the inside of the field, while the outside combo of Adrian Hubbard and Xzavier Dickson have the kind of size and speed that makes opposing quarterbacks feign the flu. Arkansas’ Alonzo Highsmith is a quality inside linebacker and Tank Wright is a good pass rusher off the end, but the Razorbacks need more consistency from Wright and a better effort overall from the other outside linebacker position, currently manned by Jarrett Lake and Daunte Carr. Terrell Williams gives Arkansas a veteran presence off the bench. Maybe it’s because Wright is moving to this group from defensive end, but Arkansas has not been cohesive thus far in 2012. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Here’s where it really goes off the rails for Arkansas. The secondary has been putrid, and the Razorbacks will be without CB Tevin Mitchel this week, who suffered what is believed to be a major concussion against Louisiana-Monroe. Mitchel’s absence will leave Mississippi Valley State transfer Kaelon Kelleybrew as the starter opposite Darius Winston at cornerback, putting an overachiever and an underachiever on the field together. Eric Bennett was being looked upon as the leader of this group in the preseason, but he has struggled, and his cohort at safety, Ross Rasner, lacks athleticism. Alabama counters with Dee Milliner and Deion Belue at cornerback, but Alabama is not without its own issues. John Fulton started in Milliner’s absence last week as Milliner rehabbed a wrist injury, but it’s safe to say the Tide still lacks a solid third cornerback. It may be Fulton, it may be true freshman Geno Smith, or it may be no one. At safety, the only sure thing is strong safety Robert Lester. Vinnie Sunseri started against Michigan, but junior Nick Perry started last week and apparently will start this week as well. He’s solid against the run but will often be replaced on passing downs by either Sunseri or Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix. Regardless of the juggling, Alabama has looked substantially more competent all around, and the Crimson Tide is healthier as well. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Arkansas’ duo of punter Dylan Breeding and placekicker Zach Hocker is one of the steadiest in the SEC. The return game hasn’t impressed much, however, due mostly to weakness on punt returns. Alabama, meanwhile, has been much improved in 2012. Punter Cody Mandell has actually outperformed Breeding, while the placekicker combo of Jeremy Shelley on short field goals and Cade Foster on longer kicks and kickoffs is apparently working. Two games isn’t enough to make a definitive call on, however. Alabama’s return game looks a bit more dangerous as well. Again, if the available numbers were coming after Week 8 rather than Week 2, it would be easy to name Alabama the leader. But we’ll go with the long-term body of work. Advantage: Arkansas
OVERALL
Alabama leads in five categories, Arkansas in three. But the three leads Arkansas enjoys are all slim ones. As for OL/DL matchups, Alabama controls both of those with ease.
It may be that last point that gives Alabama its greatest advantage. Although the game is on the road, Alabama already has one road victory under its belt, the opener in Dallas against Michigan. Arkansas, meanwhile, has struggled in both its opening games. Alabama has proven to be much more physical, and the Crimson Tide is certainly less of a sideshow at the moment.
The big question, of course, is who will start under center for Arkansas. Alabama didn’t appear to have much trouble with Wilson last year, knocking him around all afternoon and forcing mistakes. Who believes it won’t happen again, especially with the Razorbacks worse along the offensive line, and Wilson trying to shake the mental cobwebs out?
The best thing Arkansas can do at this point is go with a backup quarterback. It might not make a difference in the outcome of this game, anyway, and holding out Wilson would give Arkansas a much better chance to salvage a good season and bowl appearance – not to mention Wilson’s future. But Wilson is a competitor who wants to play, and the Arkansas coaching staff is a study in desperation. Not a good mix.
As such, if Wilson can fog a mirror, expect him to play. If he does, he’ll make some big plays, but Alabama will – not might, will – hit him again, and hit him frequently. Either way, the biggest surprise of all would be Wilson taking Arkansas’ final offensive snap – whether that means the Tide knocks him out of the game, or he never plays in the game in the first place.
Alabama 31
Arkansas 14