For the second consecutive game, Alabama will face an opponent that it has already played at some point in the 2025 season. This time, Alabama gets the opportunity to right a wrong.
Oklahoma delivered a memorable upset loss to Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium a month ago, memorable because Alabama essentially doubled up the Sooners in offensive output, but turned the ball over too much and committed too many critical errors to overcome. Oklahoma won the game 23-21, forcing Alabama to beat Auburn to claim a spot in both the SEC Championship Game and ultimately, the College Football Playoff.
Now Alabama gets a return engagement, although this time, the game will take place on the road in Norman, Okla. Can Alabama do to Oklahoma what Georgia did to Alabama two weeks ago, and avenge the earlier loss — not to mention the loss sustained to Oklahoma during the 2024 regular season?
(Editor’s note: The format of this article will follow the framework TideFans.com debuted in the second Georgia game; rather than doing the second in-depth dive within a month’s time, we will evaluate our earlier review and discuss whether it still applies to a rematch.)
OFFENSE
Both teams run variants of an Air Raid passing attack, and we noted in the initial preview that both teams were struggling to run the football. Those struggles continue for each team, and both teams failed to run the ball effectively Nov. 15. Alabama continues to hold a significant edge in the passing game, ranking 21st nationally in passing offense compared to 61st for Oklahoma.
QUARTERBACKS (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Alabama; Accurate (Y/N): Y)
It wasn’t like Ty Simpson had the best game of his career against Oklahoma, but it was the one game the second half of the season where Simpson’s raw output looked in-line with his output in the season’s first half, a period of time that saw him briefly lead the Heisman Trophy betting odds. Simpson was 28-of-42 for 326 yards, a touchdown and an interception against Oklahoma, but the interception went for a back-breaking, 87-yard pick-six and Simpson also fumbled the ball away once. Oklahoma’s John Mateer went 15-for-23 for 138 yards and rushed 10 times for 23 yards and a touchdown, and wasn’t really a factor. For that matter, he came incredibly close to throwing two pick-sixes of his own, one in the direction of Yhonzae Pierre that would likely have given Alabama the win were it not for Pierre’s teammate Tim Keenan batting the ball away, unaware Pierre was behind him. Prior to the game, we mentioned that we thought this would be a potential meeting of the conference’s top two quarterbacks, but neither was able to sustain down the stretch, probably a function of injuries (back for Simpson, hand for Mateer) plus the availability of more and more game tape each week. Nothing much has changed going into this one. We still like Simpson’s physical game more and especially his arm; we got a close-up look at Mateer’s rather sidearm delivery and occasional lack of situational awareness in Tuscaloosa, and whatever issues Simpson is facing, Mateer is right there with him. No need to change the pick. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Oklahoma; Accurate (Y/N): N)
Neither team ran the ball especially well in the first game, but Alabama’s Daniel Hill gained 60 yards and scored two touchdowns. For Oklahoma, RBs Xavier Robinson and Troy Blaylock combined for 14 carries for 35 yards. The rest came from Mateer, and WR Isaiah Sategna on a jet sweep. Jam Miller added 9 carries for 27 yards for Alabama, but he wasn’t at 100 percent or even close to it. We’re not sure what to expect this time out. Miller missed Alabama’s rematch with Georgia but is set to play in this game, but again, will he be healthy enough to make a difference? Hill’s production has leveled off post-Nov. 15, and Kevin Riley will be unavailable for this game after sustaining a jaw injury against Eastern Illinois. For Oklahoma, we think Blaylock, a true freshman, is going to end up getting the majority of the work, with Robinson and Jadyn Ott getting the rest of the carries. Oklahoma has not been happy with its running back production in 2025, but neither has Alabama, and we’re going to have to see Miller healthy before we can ascribe too much to his availability. Advantage: Oklahoma
WIDE RECEIVERS (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Alabama; Accurate (Y/N): Y)
Alabama came out of the first game holding the edge, but not by the kind of margin we expected. For Oklahoma, Sategna was a key factor in the game despite getting just 5 touches on offense. He added a 42-yard punt return that flipped momentum. For Alabama, TE Josh Cuevas ended up leading all receivers with 6 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. Germie Bernard put up a solid day, as did Isaiah Horton and Ryan Williams, and reserve TE Kaleb Edwards had a nice catch. What has changed here has mostly worked out to be minuses for Alabama. Cuevas isn’t healthy, and while both he and Danny Lewis Jr. are available for this game, they’ll both be limited if they even play at all. Bernard has been banged up, and rumors this week say Williams has been dealing with an injury for most of the season, too. That leaves Horton, who leads the team in touchdown receptions but who has run fairly hot and cold for most of the year. The questions for Alabama will be whether the Crimson Tide can limit TE Jaren Kanak again – he had 2 catches for 23 yards in the first game, about half his normal production – and whether Alabama can limit Sategna this time. We’re going to give Alabama the benefit of the doubt based on depth, but this could easily swing in Oklahoma’s favor. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Alabama; Accurate (Y/N): Y)
With offensive production doubling Oklahoma’s on Nov. 15, it’s hard to argue that Alabama’s offensive line didn’t win the day. Since that time, Alabama has continued to improve in tackles for loss allowed in the running game – 28th now compared to 38th at the time of the first game – but Oklahoma has improved steadily in both run-game metrics and pas protection. Unfortunately for the Sooners, they also might have lost their starting center, Jake Maikkula, for this game. If Maikkula can’t go, the likely replacement is a true freshman, Owen Hollenbeck. Alabama has seemed to settle on a regular lineup of Michael Carroll at right tackle and Wilkin Formby at right guard, which has cleaned up the assignments a bit but still leaves something to be desired in pass protection. The other question for Alabama is whether LG Kam Dewberry will be available for this game and if so, to what extent. Geno VanDeMark played much of the Georgia rematch at left guard, but wasn’t nearly as effective in relief there as he was playing center in Parker Brailsford’s place against Auburn. Jaeden Roberts played a good bit at right guard in the first game and that may have been part of the reason for Alabama’s somewhat-decent running game, but Roberts being in the game forces Bama to reshuffle Formby to right tackle, with results that have been mixed at best. The Maikkula injury looms large here. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
Oklahoma’s hybrid 4-3/4-2-5 defense gave Alabama some difficulty in the first matchup, especially in the running game. Running the ball against OU allows the Sooners to move an extra linebacker onto the field and arguably makes the Sooners stronger by alignment. Alabama is currently 12th in total defense and Oklahoma 9th, with the Sooners better against the run and Alabama superior against the pass.
DEFENSIVE LINE (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Oklahoma; Accurate (Y/N): N)
This was the biggest surprise of the first matchup, as Alabama did no worse than hold serve against Oklahoma’s defensive line and probably had a superior game by the numbers. But much of that was likely due to the absence of DE R. Mason Thomas for Oklahoma, and Thomas will be back for this game. On the other sideline, DE L.T. Overton remains a scratch for Alabama, so this is going the wrong way for the Crimson Tide already. At the time of the first game Oklahoma led the nation in tackles for loss and was 3rd in sacks; the Sooners now lead the nation in both. Against Georgia, the absence of Overton was keenly felt for Bama, and while Jordan Renaud is a quality reserve, he’s no Overton – more of a passing-downs specialist at the moment and not the hybrid tackle/end role that Overton filled so admirably. We think Alabama overachieved in the first matchup, and that the circumstances that would allow for a repeat performance are no longer in the cards. Advantage: Oklahoma
LINEBACKERS (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Oklahoma; Accurate (Y/N): Y)
Both teams actually had very good performances, which we predicted beforehand before ultimately giving the nod to the Sooners. The point to be made is that most analysts were giving Oklahoma a vast advantage here at the time and we saw it much tighter. In the game itself, Alabama did a nice job limiting Kendal Daniels at the rover spot, but backup Reggie Powers recorded 4 tackles and caused a fumble. Inside backers Kip Lewis, Sammy Omosigho and Kobie McKinzie all had solid days. Alabama acquitted itself well, but not enough to move the needle. We expect more of the same in the second meeting. Advantage: Oklahoma
DEFENSIVE BACKS (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Alabama; Accurate (Y/N): Y)
Eli Bowen’s interception aside, we were surprised by how well Alabama’s offense racked up the passing yards in the regular-season matchup. Things aren’t going to be any easier for Oklahoma this time out, as CB Gentry Williams will miss the game with injury. Bowen will start in his place, though, so we’ve seen already that quality depth exists at that position. We do wonder, though, how Oklahoma will do when it needs to add a third corner to the alignment, and whether it is likely to be Jacobe Johnson, who had 1 tackle in November, or true freshman Maliek Hawkins. Alabama has made a couple of changes of its own in the weeks since, most notably with Rydarrius Morgan overtaking DaShawn Jones as the primary nickel safety. It’s a change that has paid dividends in run support. Alabama also went back to Domani Jackson at corner against Georgia over Dijon Lee Jr., and Jackson responded with a solid game. In short, we like Alabama’s personnel better now than we did in November, and like Oklahoma’s less. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS (Nov. 15 – Advantage: Oklahoma; Accurate (Y/N): Y)
We needn’t remind Alabama fans that the November game is where Conor Talty’s meltdown with snapper Daniel Bird happened, to the point that Alabama has been auditioning long-snappers ever since. In addition, WR Ryan Williams was called on to return punts in this game, and fumbled one of his two attempts. Despite another solid day from Bama P Blake Doud, this was a runaway edge to Oklahoma in the final analysis. Since then, we haven’t seen Williams back for any further punts, as Alabama has allowed sure-handed Cole Adams to continue to field kicks, even if his return capabilities aren’t as strong. Talty seems to have gotten back on the right track, with Alex Rozier and Jay Williams now contributing to the snapping duties. Oklahoma, though, continues to hold a massive edge here, if for no other reason than PK Tate Sandell still exists: He’s 23-of-24 (95.8%) on field goal tries on the year. Advantage: Oklahoma
OVERALL
In the rematch, Alabama and Oklahoma again hit the paper with four category leads apiece. The major development in November was that in the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama’s defensive line showed up much better against the Sooner OL than we expected. But in the time since, the loss of Overton for Alabama and the return of Thomas for Oklahoma widens OU’s DL gap over the Alabama OL, and tightens Alabama’s DL gap over the Oklahoma OL.
However, we actually like Alabama to atone for its earlier sins this week, even with the game in Norman. In November, we picked Alabama to win 24-20 but said if the game were in Norman, we would be taking the Sooners. So what has changed?
Alabama has gotten healthier at quarterback and receiver during the two-week break. Oklahoma’s offensive line isn’t in the same shape following the loss of its center – although for Alabama, dealing with L.T. Overton’s loss and the limited role for Cuevas will be at least as big of a deal.
What we really see here is that Alabama matched up well enough to win the first game, and simply rode itself out of the picture with mistakes we don’t think the Crimson Tide are apt to repeat. It’s also easier for the team that loses the first game to find the extra push to win the rematch in most cases.
Finally, we just simply choose to believe in this team at this point in the season. Alabama has much to answer for in the wake of a noncompetitive loss to Georgia. We think this time out, Bama gets the job done.
Alabama 23
Oklahoma 17
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN