There has been a great deal of chatter among pundits whether the old “offense sells tickets, defense wins championships” mantra is still valid in 2025.
Specifically, does defense still win championships, or is a vibrant offense more important to the equation? This game may go a long way to determining the answer, because while Alabama’s defense is playing at a high level right now, Oklahoma has probably the best all-around defense in the SEC. And with Alabama’s running game increasingly DOA, it might be too much to ask of QB Ty Simpson and his receivers to once again save Bama’s bacon.
OFFENSE
Oklahoma’s offense has been described as an Air Raid variant, much like Alabama’s. The similarities don’t just end in the naming convention. Both teams have struggled to run the ball – Oklahoma ranks 92nd in it, Alabama 119th – while both lean heavily on talented quarterbacks. The real difference, though, is in design and playcalling flow, as Alabama has been one of the most unpredictable and complex at it, especially in its passing concepts. Oklahoma has been mediocre in its passing attack (60th), although much of that is probably due to the hand injury to its starting quarterback. Alabama ranks 13th in passing.
QUARTERBACKS
We’re going to make what could be considered a very controversial statement here, given the stats, but we feel that Oklahoma’s John Mateer is probably the second-most dangerous SEC quarterback. His problem in this game is that he’s squaring off against the guy who tops the list, Ty Simpson. Mateer is a dual-threat quarterback who often is run-first, and Alabama has struggled against guys like that for seemingly a century. Mateer has carried 94 times for 306 yards (3.3 avg.) on the year, which includes yardage lost to sacks, and leads Oklahoma with 6 rushing touchdowns. It’s his passing numbers that are curious: 169-of-265 (63.8%), 1,949 yards, 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The low touchdown and high interception count were not expected by anyone who saw him carve up the field at Washington State last year. Simpson, meanwhile, has 21 touchdowns and a single interception on his docket, to go along with 2,461 yards passing on a 66.9% clip. The backup job is probably a tossup; Oklahoma has more experience there in the form of Michael Hawkins Jr., and if Mateer’s thumb injury kicks up again, we’ll see Hawkins in this game. But both Austin Mack and Keelon Russell look like superior talents. The combination of the hand injury and Oklahoma’s general struggles with its offensive system under head coach Brent Venables have made Mateer’s season less than spectacular, but he doesn’t have to go very far to become dangerous in this game. If there was any quarterback ever set up for a Stephen Garcia moment, it’s Mateer in this game. But Simpson is playing at a high level himself, and we can’t judge this one based off of evidence not yet in our possession. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Oklahoma may be even more frustrated than Alabama with its production, because the Sooners went out and gott Jadyn Ott from California in the offseason, and his stats look like this: 21 carries, 68 yards (3.2 avg.), 0 touchdowns. Ott has fallen from the main rotation and is now behind both true freshman Tory Blaylock and sophomore Xavier Robinson. Blaylock’s numbers are about average for an SEC back, but Robinson is one to watch, as he has amped up his production recently and at 6’0” and 239 pounds, is a potential load on inside runs. The Robinson-Blaylock duo is starting to come around, but Alabama is stuck in neutral. Jamarion Miller’s production has tailed off since his initial return to the lineup against Georgia, to the extent that Daniel Hill should probably be considered a co-starter. Kevin Riley gives Alabama a speed option at the position, but the name everyone is whispering this week is that of true freshman Akylin Dear, who hasn’t played since Louisiana-Monroe. The rumor mill has been buzzing that Dear – who has carried a total of 7 times for 85 yards (12.1 avg.) and a touchdown – will find himself with some kind of role this week. Like we said about John Mateer, we can’t really evaluate based on facts not in evidence, and Robinson’s recent emergence for Oklahoma tilts this category pretty strongly toward the Sooners. Advantage: Oklahoma
WIDE RECEIVERS
Arkansas transfer Isaiah Sategna has the best stats of anyone on either team, but overall the Oklahoma receiver roster is a bit pedestrian. Deion Burks lacks height and is just above the 10.0-ypc threshold for an outside receiver, while the third receiver, Keontez Lewis, may not be fully healthy for this game. JaVonnie Gibson will be the fourth receiver and probably take Lewis’ snaps if he’s not sufficiently effective. No other wideout has more than 3 catches on the year. Tight end Jaren Kanak, though, can be a weapon; he has 30 catches for 410 yards (13.7 avg.) but has yet to score. Sategna’s 5 touchdowns are more than all Oklahoma’s other wideouts put together. Kanak is just 6’2” and 230 pounds, small for a tight end, and Oklahoma might have to play the larger Carson Kent more if it wants to focus on running the ball. Kent has just 3 receptions on the year. Alabama will start Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton at receiver, with Lotzeir Brooks establishing himself as the fourth wideout and Rico Scott providing depth. Tight end Josh Cuevas trails Kanak in catches (24 vs. 30) but it seems like every catch Cuevas makes comes at a key moment in the game. Alabama will have to account for Sategna and Kanak but overall, this unit is manageable. We’re not sure the Oklahoma secondary has seen a group like Alabama’s yet. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
The Alabama OL had a mediocre week at best against LSU, and it got worse upon follow-up inspection when we went to the tape a couple of days after. Still, Alabama has better metrics across the board than Oklahoma, which has struggled for two years now to fix issues up front. Alabama will start Parker Brailsford at center and Kadyn Proctor at left tackle. We believe we will continue to see Jaeden Roberts at right guard; RT Wilkin Formby had been on a promising trajectory heading into LSU but the tape was not kind. Michael Carroll figures to continue to split time with him there. At left guard, we’ll see if Kam Dewberry continues to be the go-to, or whether Geno VanDeMark and Will Sanders will get more snaps this week. Oklahoma has had to replace two starters during the year due to injury, and only one player – RG Febechi Nwaiwu – has started every game. We believe true freshman Michael Fasusi will start at left tackle and Western Carolina transfer Derek Simmons will start at right tackle, but Simmons has been banged up the last couple of weeks. If he can’t go, Stanford transfer Luke Baklenko would probably get his first start of the year, or it might fall to Logan Howland. Heath Ozaeta is set to start at left guard and Jake Maikkula at center. Despite all Alabama’s struggles, the Crimson Tide has actually done a good job at preventing tackles for loss (38th nationally) and has been mid-pack in sacks allowed (65th). Oklahoma has struggled in both: The Sooners are 92nd in sacks allowed despite having a running quarterback, and 81st in tackles for loss allowed. Both teams could stand to improve, but Alabama has put up a better body of work. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
Brent Venables was one of the most well-respected defensive coordinators prior to taking the Oklahoma head coach job, and he brought his stinginess with him to Norman. Oklahoma ranks 7th in total defense and is 4th against the run. Pass defense ranks 20th in pass efficiency defense and 23rd in raw pass defense. For all practical purposes, the Sooners run a 4-2-5, but schematically it’s a different animal from Alabama’s 4-2-5 Swarm. The Crimson Tide has tightened up its run defense in recent weeks, now ranking 55th there. Total defense ranks 18th, with raw pass defense 10th and pass efficiency defense 23rd.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Both starters on the right side of the Sooner line are listed as doubtful for the game. Whether tackle Jayden Jackson can make a go of things is uncertain, but the focus is on DE R. Mason Thomas, who gets a tackle for a loss on about a half of the plays in which he is involved. Thomas has 9.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks and figures to be one of the top edge players taken in next April’s NFL Draft. Damonic Williams is set to start at left defensive tackle with Marvin Jones Jr. at left end. If Jackson and Thomas can’t go on the right side, it will be Gracen Halton at tackle and Adepoju Adebawore at end. While neither of those is as good as the guy he replaces, they are both solid players, and Halton in particular has been more effective off the bench than Williams has been as a starter. In other words, the eventual starting lineup may not matter much. David Stone and Taylor Wein are high-quality backups at tackle and end. Oklahoma leads the nation in tackles for loss and is 3rd in sacks. Alabama will start Tim Keenan and James Smith at tackle with Edric Hill, London Simmons, Kelby Collins and Isaia Faga backing up, while L.T. Overton and Yhonzae Pierre will start at end. Overton and Pierre have combined for 10 sacks and Pierre in particular has become one of the most feared speed rushers in the conference. But as solid as Bama’s tackles have been at times, this is almost a mismatch, even with the injuries to Thomas and Jackson. Alabama is 57th in tackles for loss and 70th in sacks. No comparison. Advantage: Oklahoma
LINEBACKERS
Oklahoma rotates four linebackers through the inside two slots, and any of the four of them would likely be the top linebacker on Alabama’s defense if they switched jerseys. Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, Kobie McKinzie and Sammy Omosigho are machines around the line of scrimmage, making plays in the backfield with regularity and also being adept at coverage. Alabama has tightened up its inside linebacker play significantly over the past month, particularly that of Nikhai Hill-Green, who rotates as the common backup to both Justin Jefferson and Deontae Lawson. Alabama may be getting Cayden Jones and Qua Russaw back this week, but the playing rotation never extends beyond Hill-Green unless the game gets out of hand, anyway. Russaw figures to be limited and probably would only see time at end on obvious running downs to start, anyway. Presuming Alabama continues to play at its current level, both groups are very good. But Oklahoma has been demonstrably better. Advantage: Oklahoma
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Oklahoma has put up good numbers in pass defense but a lot of that is due to the chaos created by the front six. The secondary doesn’t get left alone without help very often. True freshman Courtland Guillory will start at one of the cornerback spots opposite Gentry Williams. The safeties will be Peyton Bowen and Robert Spears-Jennings at the high spots, with Kendal Daniels playing the nickel. The key here is that Oklahoma treats its nickel like a third linebacker – Daniels is 6’5”, 242. His backup, Kendel Dolby, goes about 190 and is a traditional defensive back. This is similar to systems in place at Vanderbilt and South Carolina, so Alabama is used to it, and the Tide should be able to leverage Daniels a good bit by getting him into coverage situations against faster receivers. Alabama will use Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. and Domani Jackson at cornerback, with Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb the primary safeties. Nickel safety DaShawn Jones is listed as probable for this game, but Rydarrius Morgan is catching him from behind as it is and this might be the week Alabama changes the lineup here. Again, nothing wrong with what Oklahoma is doing, but Alabama makes more critical plays in the back end – the Sooners, for instance, have picked off only 5 passes, ranking 93rd in the category, with one of those going to a defensive end – and has done it without the benefit of a killer defensive line. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oklahoma kicker Tate Sandell is 18-of-19 on field goal tries (94.7%) including a staggering 6-of-6 from beyond 50 yards. Were it not for Sandell, this category would be a push; both teams are solid in net punting, both struggle with kickoff returns, kick and punt return defense is about even and while the Sooners have the statistical edge in punt returns, no one is as reliable at fielding punts as Alabama’s Cole Adams. But Alabama PK Conor Talty, while a good kicker and especially good kickoff specialist, is nowhere in Sandell’s world as a placement kicker. This is one of those rare times that we can point to this category and find a clear edge, especially late in the game from long distance. Advantage: Oklahoma
OVERALL
Alabama leads in four categories, Oklahoma in four. Both team’s defensive lines hold the edge over the opponent’s offensive line, but the edge is much greater for the Oklahoma DL against Alabama’s OL than it is for the Bama DL against the Sooner offensive line.
To put it bluntly, this looks like a matchup of two equals. There has been a significant performance edge for Alabama’s Simpson over Oklahoma’s Mateer at quarterback, but at least some of that is injury-driven and Mateer gets closer to 100 percent with each passing day. For that matter, this is a weird matchup to evaluate because rather than the two teams being close in most categories, the evaluation is that each team holds fairly clear leads in the categories in which they are granted the edge, with the possible exception of just two, quarterback and linebacker.
Alabama has fought hard to get to this spot, and needs to climb this final mountain in order to go into the final two weeks against overmatched opponents with a playoff spot as the reward. If this game were being played in Norman, though, we would be taking Oklahoma. Alabama is fortunate to have it in Bryant-Denny Stadium this year. But Oklahoma has never seemed to have consistent trouble going on the road for what it wants. The Sooners are also staring a playoff spot in the face. This could end up being Bama’s closest call of the year.
Alabama 24
Oklahoma 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN