There are so many reality-warping factors to this game – Alabama is looking for revenge from 2024; Vanderbilt is statistically the most solid of all 16 SEC programs after Week 5 – that you would be excused if you wound up watching this game while in a complete state of bewilderment.
For those who think TideFans.com has a Bama bias in any of our analysis articles, brace yourselves. We have looked at this one from every angle possible, and most of the talk asking whether Vanderbilt’s on-paper advantages are legitimate or not are being answered in the affirmative at this time. How the Commodore program got here, we can’t immediately say, but this may end up being one of the closest games Alabama plays all year long. Vanderbilt is a legit contender, and we’re not talking about just whether the ‘Dores can win this particular game. In the spirit of Jim Mora, we’re talking about playoffs.
For Alabama to come out of this year’s game the winner rather than the loser, one of two things will have to happen (and maybe both): Alabama has to continue to improve, and there will have to be some facets to this Vanderbilt team that to this point, have constituted mirages. This Commodore team is elite in spots, solid in most others. It will be a fight.
OFFENSE
Vanderbilt’s offense is more or less a modern wishbone attack. The offensive line flips weak-to-strong based on the playcall, everything starts with option action up front and the offense depends on trickery and keeping defenses uncomfortable in their assignments. Vandy comes in ranked 14th in total offense, 18th in rushing and 31st in passing. Scoring offense ranks 4th. Alabama will run its Air Raid-influenced pro-style attack that has also put up good numbers through the air (10th), and in scoring and total offense (26th, 36th). Alabama’s rushing attack continues to struggle, however, ranking 107th nationally.
QUARTERBACKS
Arguably the top two quarterbacks right now in the SEC, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia and Alabama’s Ty Simpson go about their games differently. Pavia leads Vanderbilt in rushing (48 carries, 294 yards, 6.1 avg., 2 TD, which includes yardage lost to sacks) but has also been an effective passer, at least in the short-to-intermediate range (94-of-126, 1,211 yards, 74.6%, 13 TD, 3 INT). The 3 interceptions at this point in the season are a concern, and Pavia is not an accomplished deep passer, nor does he have the arm strength to hammer in a lot of throws, but he makes up for his physical limitations with guile and confidence, to go with being one the NCAA’s most experienced players at any position.
Alabama’s Simpson can run the ball effectively, but it’s his passing numbers – 88-of-127, 1,138 yards, 69.3%, 11 TD, 0 INT against better competition than Pavia has faced that have pro scouts salivating. Due to Pavia’s career experience and prior experience against Alabama, we would take Vanderbilt here without much thought, but Alabama’s depth situation – Austin Mack and Keelon Russell, compared to Blake Berlowitz for the Commodores – pulls this one much more tightly together.
If either team loses its starter, the other team probably rolls, but the penalty would be much harsher on Vanderbilt if something happened to Pavia. Still, we can’t overlook Pavia’s accomplished dual-threat capabilities and the win he already has over Alabama and this defense. Advantage: Vanderbilt
RUNNING BACKS
Here’s one of the cases where the stats may not tell the whole story. Vanderbilt starter Sedrick Alexander has put up 243 yards on 46 carries (5.3 avg) and 4 touchdowns, but put him in a neutral, open competition with Alabama’s Jamarion Miller and Kevin Riley, and most teams are going to take both of the Alabama backs.
The question really comes down to how well Vanderbilt has managed Alexander’s raw-talent shortcomings, mostly related to speed and the ability to get through tackles at the line. When he’s been given space, he’s succeeded as good as any. His size (5’9”, 207) is not on the level of most SEC starters, but then again, neither is Kevin Riley’s measurables.
Alexander also has 3 touchdown receptions out of just 5 catches on the year, pointing to Vanderbilt’s offensive design in the red zone. Another New Mexico State transfer like Pavia, Makhilyn Young, is averaging more than 10 yards per carry as Alexander’s backup. For Alabama, Miller’s return against Georgia may have been one of a handful of reasons that game ended in an Alabama win rather than a loss. His contributions in pass blocking and as a receiver went beyond the stat sheet.
In general, Alabama isn’t running the ball well for a handful of reasons, both related to talent and/or performance of the running backs themselves, and some of it due to the carousel that has been the Tide offensive line to this point. This one is probably a lot closer than Vanderbilt thinks it is; the Commodores still hold the edge, but it’s close. Advantage: Vanderbilt
WIDE RECEIVERS
We’ll get this out of the way right now: TE Eli Stowers has no peer on Alabama’s sideline. The way Vanderbilt used him in last year’s win, and the way the Commodores have used him this year – 22 receptions, 301 yards, 13.7 avg., 2 TD – out of what amounts to a hybrid fullback/tight end/receiver role, is going to wind up making Stowers a massive winner in next April’s NFL Draft.
The issue for Vanderbilt is that Alabama might very well have the top three receivers by ability in the SEC all running routes together. Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton could each be the top receiver on just about any contender in the country; together as a group, they pressure even very good secondaries with their collective presence.
Vanderbilt was able to reach into the small-school ranks this year (Washburn) and get Tre Richardson, who has been effective despite his smaller size, to go with Junior Sherrill. The third receiver spot has been a rotation of Richie Hoskins, Trent Hudson and Tristen Brown, with no one really showing out yet. Alabama’s Lotzeir Brooks is better as a fourth receiver than any of those three are as complementary starters to Sherrill and Richardson. Tight ends Josh Cuevas, Kaleb Edwards and Danny Lewis Jr. aren’t on Stowers’ par, but Cuevas isn’t terribly far off (and is a better blocker) and Edwards, now just a true freshman, likely will be even closer soon. The assignment for Alabama is clear: Stop Stowers from running endless shovel-pass screens inside. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Vanderbilt had to get three transfers out of the portal to shore up a line that actually lost at least one key member to the portal, and is still considered to be a good, but not great line that is more than the sum of its parts. The strong/quick flip-flopping that takes place along this line on every snap makes it hard to evaluate in the modern sense, as it hearkens back to a time of wishbone offenses and lines that barely averaged 200 pounds. Oklahoma State transfer Isaia Glass is the new “quick” tackle – which means left tackle as a default – Liberty transfer Jordan White is the new center and South Dakota transfer Bryce Henderson is the new “strong” (right) tackle for 2025.
Holdovers Cade McConnell and Chase Mitchell are the guards. The Commodores have put up solid metrics – 9th in sacks allowed, 10th in tackles for loss allowed – and have been adept at putting together long drives; Vanderbilt ranks 19th in time of possession.
For Alabama, we know Parker Brailsford will start at center and Kadyn Proctor at left tackle, and we’re reasonably sure Kam Dewberry will at least start at left guard. The question marks are on the right side. Against Georgia, Alabama best offensive line alignment on the right included Wilkin Formby at right guard and true freshman Michael Carroll at right tackle. That would leave guards Jaeden Roberts and Geno VanDeMark out of the mix, however. VanDeMark would probably end up rotating with Formby and Dewberry, but Roberts would probably be relegated to a reserve role.
Alabama’s OL stats have been better than most Alabama fans probably think: 34th in sacks allowed, 19th in tackles for loss allowed. Individually, we’re pretty sure Alabama would win a one-to-one comparison across the board, especially at center, but Vanderbilt hasn’t given us any indication yet that this group is smoke-and-mirrors. We will have to wait until gameday to see whether transfers from South Dakota and Liberty hold up, but for now, we’re believers. Advantage: Vanderbilt
DEFENSE
Vanderbilt is playing the same hybrid form of a 3-4 over/under and 4-2-5 set that most teams have gone to in recent years. There will be two big tackles and a pair of edge rushers on most downs, but the signature of this defense is how it utilizes its nickel, which is more of a big linebacker than a fifth defensive back – sort of a 3-1-3 jack split alignment. While the Commodores’ raw stats on the year have been OK – 21st in total defense, 12th in rushing defense, 31st in scoring defense, 55th in pass defense and 67th in pass efficiency defense – the best performance oddly came on the road in the SEC against South Carolina, while other games against Utah State and Virginia Tech left the Commodores looking far more pedestrian. Alabama’s 4-2-5 Swarm defense has been solid against the pass (2nd in raw pass defense, 48th in pass efficiency defense), scoring (28th) and total defense (19th), Alabama ranks just 90th against the run. Alabama leads the nation in turnover margin.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Both teams are dealing with personnel issues here. Vanderbilt will probably be without Yilanan Ouattara at defensive tackle, which would force Western Michigan transfer Mason Nelson or former Texas reserve Aaron Bryant to start next to Glenn Seabrooks II. In general, Vanderbilt’s production has been mostly average up the middle outside of Seabrooks anyway. Outside, Vandy’s best lineman by stats is DE Khordae Syndor, who already has 5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, 4 QB hurries and 2 passes broken up. Linus Zunk is a quality backup there.Vanderbilt ranks 23rd nationally in sacks and 13th in tackles for loss, but much of that pressure seems to come from outside and off blitzes. Without Ouattara for this game, Jaylon Stone and Zaylin Wood should see more work inside than usual.
Alabama, for the first half, will be without James Smith at tackle due to a second-half targeting call against Georgia. Tim Keenan’s return against Georgia made a difference, and he’ll get an increased workload early alongside probably either London Simmons or Edric Hill. L.T. Overton will start at end ahead of Jordan Renaud. Hill had his best career game against Georgia, while Simmons continues to develop quickly for a freshman interior DL. Keon Keeley, Isaia Faga and Kelby Collins may get more work this week than usual, especially Faga inside while Smith is sidelined.
This is really a Syndor-vs-Overton discussion, as the rest of it is a push. Vanderbilt has an edge on depth, though. Another close one. Advantage: Vanderbilt
LINEBACKERS
We probably would have sided with Alabama here, despite Vanderbilt’s statistical edge, until Qua Russaw was lost against Georgia for what will probably wind up being the majority of the regular season. With Jah-Marien Latham out for the year with a serious neck injury, Alabama’s Wolf linebacker position is suddenly thin. Yhonzae Pierre will start there for now, and as long as he plays with his hand down, he has been very productive, ranking 8th on the team in tackles despite being a part-time contributor at the start of the year. Pierre’s forte is rushing the passer from a down position, but the Wolf spot requires linebackers to take on coverage responsibilities and other roles where Pierre would be playing while standing up.
Enter Deontae Lawson, the team’s leading tackler who up to now has mostly contributed at middle linebacker. We expect to see Lawson playing down more in this game, with Nikhai Hill-Green coming in to support weakside linebacker Justin Jefferson. True freshman Justin Hill will be Pierre’s primary backup now, and Noah Carter may have to play, whether he’s truly ready or not. Cayden Jones might have an increased role inside.
For Vanderbilt, the trio of Bryan Longwell, Bryce Cowan and Langston Patterson have been solid inside, but the name to watch is edge rusher Miles Capers, who already has a season’s worth of stats in negative plays and being effective against opposing quarterbacks. Alabama transfer Keanu Koht is his backup. Vanderbilt also plays its Star position more like a linebacker, and that’s where Randon Fontenette comes in. Fontenette is big for a safety and doesn’t have much usefulness in coverage beyond tight ends, but he supports the run as well as any linebacker and always seems to have his hand in key plays.
With Russaw out and no clear path yet for Alabama to get through his loss at Wolf, we have to give the edge to the Commodores, despite what we see as development from Pierre and improving play from the veteran Lawson. Advantage: Vanderbilt
DEFENSIVE BACKS
If there’s a weakness to Vanderbilt’s defense, it’s in the back, which was identified as being a potential soft spot in the preseason. The Commodores have just 1 interception so far from a member of the secondary. In general, Vanderbilt’s secondary is Florida Atlantic transfer S C.J. Heard and a lot of affiliated parts. Heard is currently the team’s leading tackler, has its only interception by a DB, a sack for a loss of 16 yards and 3 QB hurries on blitzes. Marlen Sewell will start at free safety next to Heard, while Martel Hight will start at one of the corner spots.
The other corner spot is sort of a mishmash of Kolbey Taylor, Eastern Washington transfer Marlon Jones, Tennessee transfer Jordan Matthews and Mark Davis, although Davis is listed as questionable for this game. One of the issues Vandy has had in the back end is getting hands on passes; of the 16 PBUs the Commodores have recorded as a team, only 2 – one each from Matthews and Davis – are attributable to defensive backs in the two-deep.
Alabama will use Domani Jackson, Zabien Brown and Dijon Lee Jr. at corner, while Bray Hubbard leads the safety team. There may be some changes around the safety positions played by Keon Sabb and DaShawn Jones, as Alabama used both Rydarrius Morgan and Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. there late in the Georgia game. We expect Sabb is safe, but productivity at Jones’ position may be low enough to invite competition. This is one of the few position groups where both the production and the talent level on paper both heavily favor the Crimson Tide. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Commodores were expected to have one of the SEC’s best special teams units coming into the year, and they’ve lived up to expectations. Brock Taylor has been perfect on field goal attempts, although there is an unconverted PAT on his record. Vandy ranks 12th in the country in net punting, the punt and kickoff returns have been solid, and punt return defense is average. The only point of struggle here has been kickoff return defense, where Vanderbilt has been consistently on edge and ranks 100th coming into this week.
For Alabama, everything was looking good until Conor Talty duck-hooked a field goal attempt at Georgia, his second miss of the year. Other than that, Talty has been superlative on kickoffs – Alabama ranks 52nd in kickoff return defense despite allowing a TD to Wisconsin, which says something for its consistency on other opportunities – while punter Blake Doud has been exceptional. Cole Adams is one of the best punt returners in the conference, but Alabama ranks 133rd – dead last – in the nation in kickoff returns. Both teams have been solid as a whole; Vanderbilt has just been a tick better overall. Advantage: Vanderbilt
OVERALL
Vanderbilt leads in six categories, Alabama in two. Say that one slowly to yourself – Vandy 6, Alabama 2. It’s one of the most surprising analyses we’ve ever put on paper.
However, if you’re a Bama fan looking for a silver lining, understand that there isn’t one category on the whole board that Vanderbilt runs away with. All six Commodore leads are small ones – even quarterback – and in the OL-DL cross-matchups, it’s a repeat of Alabama-Georgia: Both teams’ offensive lines hold modest edges over the opposing defensive line.
We’re already well within the margins of error here without discussing the strength of opponents played to this point. Vanderbilt’s best performance came against South Carolina, after knocking out Gamecock QB LaNorris Sellers in the early going. The win over a struggling Virginia Tech team took too long to materialize, and Vanderbilt was sloppy at times against both Utah State and Georgia State. Alabama, meanwhile, turned things around quickly after an ugly opening loss to Florida State, putting away lesser opponents ULM and Wisconsin by blowout scores and then winning against what was considered to be the SEC’s best team, Georgia, on the road in Athens.
There has been quite a bit of mouthiness from the Vanderbilt camp this week, which sometimes means a lot and other times, very little. In this case, we think Alabama will do a good job of packaging the desire to shut up the talkers with a need to get revenge and its continuing journey to find a playoff spot. Vanderbilt is well-coached and very well-prepared by its staff to handle hostile playing environments, but when we start thinking about a score, we remember this:
In 2024, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt in Nashville thanks largely to a pick six, a fumble from QB Jalen Milroe and a gaffe on a punt where Alabama was forced to give Vandy the ball back after running two players onto the field with the same jersey number. Outside of that, Alabama held the Commodores to 3 yards per carry and Milroe picked apart the Commodore secondary for 310 yards despite not being at his best. Vanderbilt then went on to finish the regular season at 6-6.
Teams do get better, and Vanderbilt certainly has, but there’s a legitimate question to be asked here as to how much of Vandy’s ascension as a program has been real, and how much has been wishful thinking on the part of media outlets and fans who both love to see underdogs win in general, and specifically want to see someone come in and upset the SEC apple cart. Vanderbilt certainly fills both roles.
For this reason, we’re open to giving Alabama a greater benefit of the doubt. Both teams have a ton to play for, but if Alabama loses this game, it could very well be lights-out on its postseason chase. Call it an Upset Special if you want, but we’re taking the Tide.
Alabama 41
Vanderbilt 35
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