Last Week’s Record: 10-2 (83.3%)
Season’s Record: 36-7 (83.7%)
Another solid, yet unspectacular week for the Predictions Dept. But given how difficult college football is getting to be to predict, we’ll take it. This week, Alabama is off, and the rest of the SEC is playing a bit of a ho-hum schedule. The headliner? Probably Auburn at Oklahoma, although South Carolina-Missouri and Florida-Miami could hold some promise.
ARKANSAS at MEMPHIS
Memphis is 3-0 but the wins have all been uninspiring games against opponents that should have been easily overmatched. Arkansas is coming off a near miss against Ole Miss, a win that would have probably saved Sam Pittman’s job outright and gotten the Razorback fans talking about postseason miracles. Instead, it was simply a good showing that has left everyone wanting more. It’s no secret why Arkansas is playing this game in Memphis – it’s the Razorbacks’ primary recruiting territory – but Memphis as a program has often been a tough out when hosting bigger programs at home. This one could end up closer than expected simply because the Hogs may still be trying to get over the what-might-have-been aftertaste of the loss to the Rebels.
Arkansas 30
Memphis 24
AUBURN at OKLAHOMA
Auburn QB Jackson Arnold was Oklahoma’s quarterback last year, but aside from a top-flight performance against Alabama, Arnold didn’t exactly foster a lot of support from the Sooner faithful. Now he returns to Norman to face a Sooner team that is far more multi-dimensional than it was last year, courtesy of Washington State transfer QB John Mateer. So far, Auburn has been all-run, while Oklahoma has been (nearly) all-pass, but the Sooners look a lot more dangerous on that side of the ball and probably have the better defense. Norman isn’t an easy trip for anyone, especially not for teams that are probably looking up a bit at the Sooners on their way in.
Oklahoma 31
Auburn 17
FLORIDA at MIAMI
This game could have been something special had Florida not found a way – and that way was for QB D.J. Lagway to throw five interceptions – to keep LSU and its suddenly-anemic offense around long enough for the Tigers to grab the win in their game last week. Now Billy Napier has advanced from the hot seat to pants-afire and, by the way, now he gets in-state rival Miami on the road and the Hurricanes are suddenly College Football Playoff favorites. This is the wrong game in the wrong place at the wrong time for Napier, and that’s even without knowing that he has to fix Lagway at the same time. Lagway, predicted by some observers to be the top quarterback in the SEC this year, came off looking horrid against LSU, both mechanically and in terms of what’s between his ears. An ugly loss here and there might be actual gators waiting on Napier in his office come Monday.
Miami 27
Florida 13
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA at LOUISIANA STATE
LSU needs a cupcake game to get its offense back on track. And whaddya know…
LSU 52
SE Louisiana 7
TULANE at MISSISSIPPI
We don’t have many opportunities to mention potential Upset Specials in this soft slate of games, but here’s something that comes close. Tulane has beaten Northwestern, South Alabama and Duke, which is pretty heady territory for a second-tier program. Head coach Jon Sumrall is considered to be probably the next mid-major coach to get an opportunity at a Power 5 school, and Ole Miss didn’t exactly look like world-beaters last week against Arkansas. All of that could add up to a game that is much closer than Lane Kiffin expects or wants. Here’s the matchup that matters: Tulane is 24th in the nation in rushing offense; Ole Miss is 117th in stopping it.
Ole Miss 41
Tulane 35
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Northern Illinois has played the spoiler role many times in its past, but it’s probably not happening this week. The Huskies only beat Holy Cross by a 19-17 score in the opener and then put up only 9 points in a loss to Maryland last week. The defense is workable; the offense carries a stench. Mississippi State is rebounding nicely for head coach Jeff Lebby and the Week 2 win over a ranked Arizona State program was huge.
Mississippi St. 38
N. Illinois 13
SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSOURI
Until South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers gets back at 100 percent, the Gamecocks could lose to any team on its schedule. This is already a hard road trip to make all the way from the Palmetto State, especially to face a Missouri team that has one of the most potent and most balanced offenses in the country. USC hasn’t said yet whether Sellers will be available, but this Gamecock team may have more issues than just him. A 31-7 home loss to Vanderbilt isn’t simply the function of one injury, although it was certainly a major factor. The bigger issue is the South Carolina offense around Sellers has been anemic, and the defense couldn’t bail them out.
Missouri 30
South Carolina 20
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM at TENNESSEE
The Blazers are starting to make some progress under head coach Trent Dilfer, but it’s going to pale in comparison to what Tennessee will be able to leverage against them this week. The Volunteers have issues on defense, but coming off a loss at home to Georgia, it will be time to start putting up silly numbers on offense in an effort to influence poll voters. UAB is in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Tennessee 57
UAB 16
SAM HOUSTON STATE at TEXAS
The Bearkats can’t catch a break; they’re 0-3 despite being somewhat competitive in all three games. Phil Longo is trying to breathe life into the Sam Houston offense, but it’s going to take time. Texas has its own offensive woes to fix, mostly related to the longer-than-expected development curve for QB Arch Manning. The Longhorn defense will simply be too good to let Longo draw up too many damaging plays in the dirt.
Texas 41
Sam Houston 17
GEORGIA STATE at VANDERBILT
Remember this game from last year? Georgia State won it and nearly cost Vanderbilt bowl eligibility because of it. Vandy is coming into this one fresh off demolishing South Carolina in Columbia, and the Commodores are actually entertaining playoff possibilities this time around. Don’t expect the Panthers to put up much of a fight – especially not if their Week 1 loss to Ole Miss by a score of 63-7 is any indication.
Vanderbilt 45
Georgia State 10
IDLE: Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN