Of all the surprises – nay, shockers – of the 2024 college football season, watching Mike Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles go 2-10 had to have been at the top of that list.
It wasn’t just that Florida State lost 10 games, but how. On Aug. 24, FSU scored 21 points in a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in a Week 0 game played in Dublin, Ireland. On Nov. 23, FSU beat FCS Charleston Southern – which went 1-11 itself – by a score of 41-7.
Bama Depth Chart for Florida State game
It was the first game since the Georgia Tech loss, and the only other game of the whole year, in which Florida State scored 16 or more points.
For the rest of the year, the Seminoles were the poster children for futility. The shocking aspect of it all was that the Seminoles were on some people’s radar as a potential championship team, and Mike Norvell had just spent an offseason being a candidate for the Alabama coaching job that ultimately went to Kalen DeBoer.
For 2025, Florida State has gone back to the portal again in search of improvement. Roughly the entire starting wide receiver and offensive line units are transfers. There’s a new quarterback, and most importantly, a new offensive coordinator, as Norvell – himself considered an offensive mind of some renown – has tabbed former Auburn and Central Florida head coach Gus Malzahn to install his Hurry-Up, No-Huddle (HUNH) spread attack, perhaps because it used to give Alabama so much trouble.
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly where on the good-bad spectrum that Seminoles fall. Was last year just a case of a bad quarterback (former Clemson QB D.J. Uiagaleilei, who unfortunately finished up his college career as one of the most overrated “can’t-miss” prep stars in recent memory) and a season that spiraled out of control once the first signs of turbulence hit the waters? Was Norvell really the next big thing and simply victimized by the season, or does his career suddenly demand a new analysis? Did the Seminole coaching staff simply misfire on their transfer portal evaluations of a year ago – and did they fix it the second time around?
OFFENSE
Nothing Florida State did last year matters. The Seminoles were a statistical septic tank in 2024, ranking 132nd in total offense, 128th in rushing offense, 116th in passing offense, 131st in passing efficiency and 130th in scoring offense. But roughly none of those players return, outside of a couple of spots, plus the revamp from pro-style spread to HUNH is going to move the needles all over the place. Having said that, there might not be a lot of carryover for Alabama, either. Ryan Grubb is in town as the new offensive coordinator. Jalen Milroe is no longer the quarterback, and the specialized playbook that attempted to cater to his unique skillset went with him. Just for comparison’s sake, Alabama ranked 42nd in total offense last year, along with rankings of 47th in rushing, 56th in passing, 28th in passing efficiency (you could probably win a bar bet with that stat) and 22nd in scoring offense. The Air Raid-flavored pro-style attack remains.
QUARTERBACKS
Both teams have new signal-callers, and in both cases, improvement is expected over what was on the two respective campuses last year. Florida State brought in Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos, who had a mixed bag for a two-year stint at BC, following a freshman year in which he played at Central Florida as a backup under Malzahn.
Last year, Castellanos found himself splitting time with Grayson James for the Eagles, and not necessarily because the BC coaches planned it that way from the outset. He missed the last four games of the year and reportedly got sideways with head coach Bill O’Brien. Castellanos is sort of a Diego Pavia in regard to size and ability; he’s 5’11” at best, 200 at most and doesn’t throw downfield all that well. But he’s a dual-threat quarterback with familiarity with Malzahn’s concepts.
The backup will be sophomore Brock Glenn, who had one of the lowest completion percentages (44.7%) for any FBS quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts last year. Glenn is athletic enough to run the Malzahn-specific portions of the playbook, however, so it wouldn’t be a complete system change should he have to play.
Alabama will start Ty Simpson, who has flashed ability over his two years as a backup, but this will be his first time holding the reins to the team. Simpson has solid arm strength and is an effective runner outside of the pocket. His scrimmage work this year has been solid; now the question is, can he put it all together.
The backup will likely be Austin Mack for this game, with true freshman phenom Keelon Russell also on the roster. It’s a good bet that in terms of raw talent, all three Alabama quarterbacks are better than any on the FSU roster. Now the question for us is can we rate Simpson higher than a quarterback with a two-year resume. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Alabama will be without Jamarion Miller for this game after he suffered a collarbone injury late in fall camp. As a result, sophomores Richard Young and Daniel Hill will likely end up splitting the position, along with Louisiana transfer Dre’lyn Washington. Washington is by far the most experienced of those three, although his ultimate role is more of a third-down back in this offense. Young and Hill played sparingly last year, but each flashed good ability when called upon.
For Florida State, it’s going to be a bit of a mystery in its own right, but the Seminoles are very optimistic about the changes here. Former Alabama transfer Roydell Williams is listed as the starter, but he played in only four games in 2024 due to an injury and wasn’t effective (2.0 ypc) when he did. If anything, it showed why Alabama considered him more of a rotational piece rather than a featured back.
Another returning player, Kam Davis, is available, but like Williams his 2024 season was a difficult one. Oklahoma transfer Gavin Sawchuk and another holdover, Sam Singleton, are also competing for time, but the name to watch here is true freshman Ousmane Kromah, a big and fluid runner who was one of the stars of the incoming recruiting class. Neither team uses a fullback.
If Miller were available for Alabama, we might be tempted to take the Tide here, but the addition of Sawchuk and Kromah, along with what has to be a better year forthcoming for Williams, edges FSU past. Advantage: Florida State
WIDE RECEIVERS
Only TE Landen Thomas returns to a starting role for Florida State; the three wideout positions are all manned by transfers. Thomas had a solid first season as the Noles’ starter. As for the rest, it’s North Carolina transfer Gavin Blackwell, Tennessee transfer Squirrel White and USC transfer Duce Robinson in the mix. Robinson will be hard to handle at 6’6” with good speed.
Alabama has seen White before, and he could he highly effective in the slot/jet role that Malzahn likes in his offenses. Only Lawayne McCoy has significant experience among the backups, and he probably won’t play in this game due to injury. A pair of true freshmen, Jayvan Boggs and Chase Loftin, round out the group. Alabama returns Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard as starting wideouts and adds Isaiah Horton from Miami has the third.
Off the bench, Cole Adams returns as a slot option, and Rico Scott put up a solid bowl game against Michigan and is expected to play a key role. Jalen Hale also returns from a leg injury, to go along with a fair of talented freshmen, Derek Meadows and Lotzeir Brooks, and converted cornerback Jaylen Mbakwe.
The tight end spot was a worry for much of the spring until an influx of transfers and freshmen in the fall. Josh Cuevas was one of the best receiving tight ends in the conference last year in a reserve role, and he’ll start with Danny Lewis Jr. possibly getting the other spot when Alabama uses two tight ends. As many as six other names could see time.
Florida State’s unit shouldn’t be overlooked; the additions of White and Robinson in particular give FSU some weapons they didn’t have last year. FSU’s No. 2 receiver last year, for instance, was Alabama transfer Malik Benson, who just didn’t develop after coming out of JUCO. This one is closer than it might seem, but the talent of Williams, to go along with the addition of Horton, makes Alabama potentially the best of the SEC teams at this spot. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
This was the worst unit on the field last year for the Seminoles, and that’s saying something. Florida State was dead last (133rd) in sacks allowed, and ranked 128th in tackles for loss allowed. To the surprise of no one, the line was rebuilt through the transfer portal. Right guard Richie Leonard IV is the only starter to have played for the Noles in 2024. New to Tallahassee this year is center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest), left guard Adrian Medley (UCF), and tackles Gunnar Hansen (Vanderbilt) and Mitch Pettus (Ole Miss). All are seniors. The question here is how good they’ll be. Hansen was OK but played in a gimmick system, while Pettus has a lot of SEC experience but wasn’t in the top tier. Petitbon might wind up being the most important of the new faces.
For Alabama, it’s all about getting better in the second year of the DeBoer era. Kadyn Proctor returns at left tackle, while Wilkin Formby will try to hold off freshman Michael Carroll at right tackle. Texas A&M transfer Kam Dewberry won the left guard spot over Geno VanDeMark, but VanDeMark will start this game at right guard in place of Jaeden Roberts, who suffered an injury in fall camp. Parker Brailsford may be the best center in the country.
Alabama also has a better depth situation, especially at the guard and center slots. The new offensive system should improve things for Florida State and get at least the running game out of the doldrums, taking some of the heat off the line in the process. But if the Seminoles need to play catch-up, we’re not sure this is the line to do it behind. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
Florida State is also changing its defensive look, adopting a 3-3-5 base front and bringing in Tony White, who is a specialist in run defense schemes. FSU was 86th in total defense, 106th against the run, 41st in raw pass defense and 94th in pass efficiency defense a year ago, but like the offensive stats, you can kind of throw these out and start over. The key for Florida State will be getting the defensive front to play up to potential. Alabama returns Kane Wommack and the 4-2-5 Swarm scheme he brought; Alabama was 21st in total defense, 48th in rushing defense, 19th in raw pass defense and 10th in pass efficiency defense in 2024, better numbers than probably most Alabama fans remember.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Despite the 106th ranking in rush defense, this is probably the strength of the Seminole defense, thanks to the development of DT Darrell Jackson, originally a transfer from Miami. Jackson is incredibly gifted physically for a guy who goes 6’6” and 345 pounds. Deante McCray, who Alabama saw last year at Western Kentucky, will be one of the new defensive ends along with either K.J. Sampson, Tennessee transfer Jayson Jenkins or Daniel Lyons. McCray is the “baby” here at 287 pounds; the rest are massive, and is one of the reasons FSU thinks the 3-3-5 can work. FSU was 48th in sacks and 43rd in tackles for loss last year; the Seminoles’ issues weren’t really at this level of the defense, and they got better.
Alabama will counter with Tim Keenan III and James Smith inside, and L.T. Overton and Qua Russaw outside in its 4-2-5. The emergence of Smith has been the big story of fall camp and if it holds, will be the thing that makes the difference for this team. Alabama has excellent depth but needs emerging talent to step up.
At tackle, that probably means Jeremiah Beaman, who played very little in 2024 and was then forced into action in the bowl game due to opt-outs, where he proceeded to frustrate the Michigan OL greatly. Florida transfer Kelby Collins, tackle-end combo player Jordan Renaud, and sophomore Edric Hill are the main names for depth. Overton working next to Smith is something few opponents will want to see this year, but Alabama needs more consistency in its pass rush from Russaw, Overton and Jah-Marien Latham, who figures to see action all over the place. This one’s close, but the development of Jackson pushes FSU slightly ahead. Advantage: Florida State
LINEBACKERS
It sounds like a broken record by now, but all three Seminole starters are transfers. James Williams (Iowa Central) and Stefon Thompson (Nebraska) will work from the outside, while Elijah Herring (Memphis) will start in the middle. This was probably the weak link in the defense a year ago, as there just weren’t enough playmakers on the roster. One 2024 starter returns, Blake Nichelson, but he was relegated to a backup role in the spring.
Alabama will start Justin Jefferson at one of the inside linebacker spots with Deontae Lawson probably getting the other, although Lawson isn’t 100 percent at the moment. If he can’t go, Colorado transfer Nikhai Hill-Green will get the call, while Cayden Jones and Q.B. Reese serve as backups. Qua Russaw will also play enough as a stand-up linebacker out of the Wolf role to be discussed here. The Seminoles will be improved at this level, but it’s probably not going to be enough to push them past Alabama’s veteran unit, most of which has been together now three years. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
This is one of the few areas of the team where Florida State more or less decided to stand pat. The Seminoles added one transfer of note, Houston’s Jeremiah Wilson at cornerback, but it looks like the Noles are going to ride with familiar faces. Those include former Alabama transfer Earl Little at rover safety, Ja’Bril Rawls at corner and Shyheim Brown and K.J. Kirkland at safety. Depth is fairly veteran for a modern FBS roster, with three juniors and a sophomore on the second unit, but this secondary ranked just 125th in interceptions last year and didn’t support the run well enough.
Meanwhile, Alabama brings what might be the best secondary in the nation to this game. Domani Jackson, Zabien Brown and freshman phenom Dijon Lee Jr. will rotate at corner, while Keon Sabb returns to start at safety next to Bray Hubbard, who grew into a star after Sabb went down in the Tennessee game last year. DaShawn Jones appears to be the guy at the nickel safety spot, although Rydarrius Morgan and Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. are also competing there.
Utah transfer Cameron Calhoun and another potential freshman star, Chuck McDonald, will back up the corner spots, while Kameron Howard, Zavier Mincey and Ivan Taylor add depth at safety. This is a mismatch unlike anything else on the board. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both teams will be entirely new in the kicking game. Redshirt freshman Jake Weinberg will be the placekicker, while junior Mac Chiumento elevates to become the new punter. Florida State was decent on kickoff returns last year (40th), but punt returns were another trashcan stat (132nd), which explains the addition of Squirrel White as much as anything he brings to the wide receiver spot.
For Alabama, Conor Talty moves from being the kickoff specialist to the full-time kicker, while Colorado School of Mines transfer Blake Doud is the new punter. Alabama gets Cole Adams back as a punt returner, but Jaylen Mbakwe and Ryan Williams also figure to add a lot to the return game along with Rico Scott.
We really haven’t seen enough from either team to make a clear call yet, but Alabama has more talent on the return teams and Doud’s experience at CSOM has to account for something at this point in the young season. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, Florida State in two. There are several close calls, though – special teams, defensive line, running back, quarterback, perhaps receiver – and the transfer portal element just adds that much more noise to the line. As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama’s DL should have a firm edge over Florida State’s offensive line, but while Alabama should also lead the matchup of its OL against the FSU defensive line, the latter margin is much closer.
Now we get to game strategy: Gus Malzahn will be roaming the FSU sidelines, and there’s no love lost on his part for Alabama just like Alabama fans don’t fondly remember Malzahn’s days at Auburn. It’s unlikely that Malzahn got a full install of all his schemes this fall, and Florida State is also trying to get an almost entirely new roster to learn each other’s names, much less play with continuity.
Expect Malzahn to run the ball as long as he can, shorten the game, and hope to hit a couple of big shots downfield. Go back and look at the 2009 Alabama-Auburn game in Jordan-Hare Stadium and commit it to memory. But then remember that this game is the first of the season, not the 12th. The advantage in schematic familiarity is decidedly with the Crimson Tide.
For that reason, however strong FSU turns out to be in 2025, we like Alabama here. Alabama really needs to get positive answers in two specific places – the new quarterback, Ty Simpson, and the ability to stop the run on defense. If Alabama’s defense does the same thing to Florida State’s running game that a dozen other schools did last year – and Simpson puts forth a solid effort – Alabama should control this game throughout and put it out of reach late.
Alabama 30
Florida St. 17