The first time in 2024 that Alabama found itself coming off a bye week, the Crimson Tide pulled a stunning upset over Georgia that saw the Crimson Tide race out to a huge first-half lead.
The next week, Alabama lost to Vanderbilt, which at the time was an upset so staggering in scope that many of the same Bama fans that were ready to give Kalen DeBoer a raise the week before were stopping just short of calling for his job.
The second off-week of 2024 came just before the Crimson Tide traveled to Baton Rouge to face LSU. Alabama creamed the Tigers, 42-13, and the game wasn’t even as close as that lopsided score made it seem. Will the Crimson Tide suffer the same hangover now as it did following the Georgia win?
If it does, Alabama could very well be in for a rough time. Mercer comes into this game with a 9-1 record, has the top-ranked rushing defense at the FCS level, and can score points. But the Bears have yet to play an FBS school, and the one loss the Bears have suffered so far was an ugly 20-point defeat at the hands of Samford.
TideFans.com no longer provides full previews of FCS opponents, as it is impossible to perform any kind of comparative statistical analysis between Alabama and teams of that level. However, the following is a summary preview of what Alabama fans need to watch for, as well as a checklist of things that could prove problematic for a Tide team that is still finding its way under a new coaching staff.
When Mercer Has the Ball
Mercer is a balanced team, ranking 27th (out of 123 FCS teams) in total offense, 28th in passing offense and 30th in rushing offense. The quarterback position has been a bit of a revolving door, as three different players have put up significant stats on the year. From an efficiency and accuracy standpoint, D.J. Smith has been the best of the three, completing 72.4% of his passes for 1,282 yards and 9 touchdowns, but he has also thrown 6 interceptions. Whit Newbauer and Hess Horne have combined for 8 touchdowns and 3 INTs, but also have a significantly lower cumulative completion percentage. Smith and Newbauer are both mobile quarterbacks.
The rest of the running game centers on Dwayne McGee, who averages nearly 100 yards per game and has scored 7 touchdowns. McGee is a small back (5’8”, 180) who relies on his speed to get to holes rather than on size to bust through them. Of the backups, Micah Bell has been effective but C.J. Miller, a big body at 230 pounds, has not made the expected impact.
At receiver, Alabama will have lots to contend with, as Mercer has eight players with double-digit receptions. Mercer has good size at its outside positions, as both Kelin Parsons and Kendall Harris are over the 200-pound mark. Apollos Cook gives Mercer some height (6’3”) when needed. Mercer does not involve its tight ends much in the passing game.
As one would imagine, the size of the offensive line is an issue for Mercer. The unit as a whole averages about 280 pounds per man. In addition, Mercer has struggled badly protecting the quarterback (97th out of 123 teams in sacks allowed) and has also given up plenty of negative plays in the running game (106th in tackles for loss allowed).
Alabama should have plenty of opportunities to make negative plays and create turnovers.
When Alabama Has the Ball
Mercer is 10th in FCS in total defense, leads FCS in rushing defense, and ranks 4th in pass efficiency defense. However, the Bears have somehow found a way to rank 93rd in raw pass defense, meaning against FCS opponents at least, the Bears are prone to give up a lot of yardage, even though they tend to limit big plays.
Where Mercer makes its hay is up front. The Bears lead all of FCS in both sacks and tackles for loss in the running game. Since TideFans.com began previewing games in 1997, we have never seen an opponent on any level lead its division in those two categories simultaneously.
However, Mercer ought to find things a little tougher against Alabama. For one thing, defensive line size is an issue. The Bears’ biggest defensive lineman in the regular rotation, Chris Hill, is 6’1”, 295 pounds but is only the team’s 14th-leading tackler. Chris Zock, Arias Nash and Brayden Manley are all in the 250-260 range and are the other interior players. All three are talented regardless of their size, however, and Nash’s 2024 stat sheet looks like something out of Madden 24 with the sliders turned up. Christian Hanson can help some off the edge but he doesn’t make a lot of tackles.
The team’s top three tacklers are all linebackers – Ken Standley, Isaac Dowling and Marques Thomas. Predictably, all three are smaller players in the 220-pound range, but they’ve combined for 23 tackles for loss and 6 sacks. Pressuring the quarterback is one of Mercer’s defensive mainstays; the Bears have recorded an obscene 56 QB hurries on the year compared to allowing just 17 to opponents. The linebacker trio has accounted for 15 of the team’s total.
The defensive backfield could be vulnerable; safety Myles Redding has just 49 tackles on the year to lead the unit, which is a low number at this point of the season for a modern defense. The issue Alabama will have to account for here is ball security – Mercer has intercepted 21 passes in 10 games this year, including 6 each from Redding and CB T.J. Moore.
As for special teams, punter John McConnell could easily make a FBS roster. He’s averaging nearly 45 yards per punt. Placekicker Reice Griffith is 15-of-19 on the year, but just 1-of-4 from beyond 39 yards with a long kick of 40 yards on the season. Kickoffs have been an issue, as Mercer has only 3 touchbacks on the year from two kickoff specialists combined (Sully Croker and Bryce Addison), yet has sent 5 kickoffs out of bounds. The Bears are very adept at both punt and kick returns, however.
OVERALL
Were we to take a close look at all eight individual units, it’s likely Alabama would be 8-0 against Mercer and win both OL-DL cross-matchups. However, Mercer’s ability to make negative plays on defense could test Alabama, especially if the Crimson Tide isn’t hypersensitive about ball security.
Look for Alabama to do what it has to do to get the victory, but it might not be as easy as the fans think it should be.
Alabama 45
Mercer 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN