Last Week’s Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Season Record: 58-15 (79.5%)
Heading into Week 8, we find ourselves with a nice slate of games that are going to be difficult picks. The headliner is obviously Texas-Georgia, but Alabama-Tennessee is a great second option, plus several games that have interesting backstories.
LOUISIANA STATE at ARKANSAS
We’re going to start right off with what might be the hardest pick on the board, because both of these teams are schizophrenic. LSU is on a five-game winning streak, but it’s not that so much as it is how the Tigers have won the last three games, and their most recent one in particular: LSU beat Ole Miss in overtime, holding one of the most explosive SEC teams to just 23 points in regulation, despite the Tiger defense being a veritable mess of injuries and talent-weak spots, something LSU rarely has to deal with. The prior two wins also saw the Tigers put up good showings on that side of the ball. Ordinarily, we’d be taking LSU in a rout due to the offensive balance, but Arkansas has been the Vanderbilt of the erstwhile SEC West teams, losing twice in close games to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, while beating Tennessee and Auburn and showing a lot of improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Were this game in Baton Rouge, it would be a clear LSU pick but this game is on Upset Alert for us with it being played in Fayetteville.
LSU 34
Arkansas 30
ALABAMA at TENNESSEE
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AUBURN at MISSOURI
Missouri isn’t playing spectacularly right now, particularly not on offense, but the Tiger defense has stiffened as the season has gone along and Auburn’s offense continues to sputter. The real question for Missouri is just how much of that dreadful 41-10 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago was the real Missouri, and how much of it was just a game that got out of hand on both sides of the ball. It may be an outlier for a team that has recorded two shutouts and allowed 3 points in a third game, or it could be an indicator of a talent-based tipping point for a team whose only quality wins were close ones over Boston College and Vanderbilt. Auburn surprisingly has the 33rd-ranked offense in the country but is also 130th in turnover margin, which is directly responsible for at least one loss on the schedule so far (Oklahoma) and likely responsible for the California loss as well. Auburn had looked to be on an upswing until it ran into the brick wall called Georgia on Oct. 5, so this will be its first opportunity to show it can minimize mistakes in what should be a close game.
Missouri 27
Auburn 23
KENTUCKY at FLORIDA
Kentucky is the latest “we lost to Vanderbilt?!?” team in the SEC, falling 20-13 last week while Florida was busy making a game of things with Tennessee in Knoxville. Kentucky has the better defensive roster of these two teams by quite a margin, but the Wildcat offense has been inconsistent and unreliable. In games against quality teams, Kentucky has yet to score more than 20 points, but it has also not given up more than 20 in any of those same games. For all the talk about how Billy Napier is probably gone at year’s end, the Gators are punching above their weight right now – but that’s also due at least somewhat to Napier not being able to craft a more competitive roster. This one is about as hard to pick as LSU-Arkansas.
Kentucky 21
Florida 20
GEORGIA at TEXAS
Georgia’s penchant for slow starts will probably get the Bulldogs killed if they do it here. Texas has real firepower on offense to go with an improving defense, and the home-field advantage. The Red River Shootout was more like a water gun fight, where Oklahoma showed up with dime-store plastic pistols while Texas raided the Super Soaker factory the night before. Georgia being without LB Smael Mondon in this game could be a huge factor, although Texas may not have WR Isaiah Bond available. The first half will tell the tale; if Georgia is leading or at least very close to it, the Bulldogs have proven adept at adjusting mid-game to be able to either come back or seal the deal. If Texas can build some distance early, however, we like the Longhorns. Very likely both these teams make the playoffs regardless of outcome here.
Texas 35
Georgia 31
TEXAS A&M at MISSISSIPPI STATE
The Bulldogs showed a bit more life offensively last week against Georgia, but the losing streak stands at five already and a lack of balance from the running game will hurt the Bulldogs as they continue through the conference schedule. Texas A&M is quickly improving as a team, and the Aggies are leaning on a very good defense to produce results. The schedule remains friendly to the Aggies, who basically need to get by LSU and/or Texas to have a legitimate case for a playoff bid at 10-2 or better. Mississippi State just doesn’t feel like it has the firepower to challenge the Aggies seriously, and the Bulldog defense needs a lot of work.
Texas A&M 30
Mississippi St. 17
SOUTH CAROLINA at OKLAHOMA
The question with South Carolina is how many close losses does it take to break a team’s spirit. The Gamecocks nearly beat LSU, nearly beat Alabama, but couldn’t close the deal on either, and in between those two games put up a listless effort at Ole Miss. Now they go to Oklahoma, which is licking its wounds after getting drilled by Texas in a rivalry game last week. Oklahoma’s defense is legit, but the Sooner offense is in a sad state. South Carolina has enough talent to win this game but if Oklahoma’s defense shows up, it’s going to be tough even with a good effort. If any modern game was ever going to finish with both teams scoring in single digits, this might just be it.
Oklahoma 23
South Carolina 17
BALL STATE at VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt would go to 5-2 with a win here, and Ball State is 2-4 with close wins over Missouri State and winless Kent State. We’ll see if Vanderbilt gets caught looking forward, because the next opponent for the Commodores is Texas. We don’t often pay attention to betting spreads, but Vandy is almost a four-TD favorite in this game, which is a sucker bet if we’ve ever seen it. Expect the Commodores to win, but typically, when Vanderbilt finds itself in this position, rare as it is, the ‘Dores respond by acting like the dog that finally caught the car: What do they do with it now?
Vanderbilt 31
Ball State 17
IDLE: Ole Miss
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN