Another light week is upon us, but without even a headliner game like Alabama-Georgia. Of course, Week 5 found a way to be interesting even outside the Bama-UGA matchup, as Kentucky gave the Predictions Dept. a loss with its upset of Ole Miss. This week, the most interesting game may very well end up being an Ole Miss game again, this time on the road against a resurgent South Carolina.
Last Week‘s Record: 4-2 (66.7%)
Season Record: 50-10 (83.3%)
TENNESSEE at ARKANSAS
Arkansas keeps showing signs of life, only to suffer disappointment at the end of games. The Razorbacks looked poised for a potential upset of Texas A&M last week, but eventually dropped the game to the Aggies on a long touchdown drive in the middle of the fourth quarter that the Razorbacks just couldn’t seem to answer. The Hog defense is starting to come around a bit, but Tennessee is in a different universe offensively from the staid Aggies. Arkansas will have to hit on every one of its chances offensively in this game if it wants to be around in the fourth quarter with an upset still in the discussion. Far more likely, though, is that Tennessee runs out to a comfortable advantage in the first half and then uses its superior depth to wear down the Razorback defense. We’re also not sold on the overall quality of the Arkansas pass defense, and if there’s any team in the SEC that can expose weaknesses there, it’s Tennessee.
Tennessee 41
Arkansas 20
ALABAMA at VANDERBILT
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AUBURN at GEORGIA
This one could be interesting depending on whether you like to watch slasher flicks. Auburn once again snatched defeat away at the last possible moment against Oklahoma last week, and now the Tigers have to rebound against a Bulldog team that suddenly has a lot to prove and can’t afford another regular-season loss. Georgia played three quality quarters of football against Alabama, but unfortunately the outlier was a first quarter in which everything that could possibly go wrong, did. Georgia ended up looking shellshocked for most of the game even as it made a comeback, and Carson Beck’s last pass – an interception in the Alabama end zone – was fitting in both its timing and in how critical it proved to be. Georgia needs to make a statement in this game and not allow Auburn to keep the Bulldogs off-balance the way Auburn was able to do against Oklahoma.
Georgia 40
Auburn 20
CENTRAL FLORIDA at FLORIDA
The Gators could have used an easier opponent in this slot, but as it stands, they have to worry about defending Gus Malzahn’s many offensive innovations smack in the middle of a season in which the Gators haven’t looked capable of doing much of anything. Central Florida got – rather surprisingly – run out of town by a mediocre Colorado team last week, so it’s not just the Gators who have to answer their critics. UCF was coming off a 35-34 win over TCU the week before. Florida was off last week, and one would think the Gators learned a lot from watching the Colorado tape. UCF has plenty enough talent and coaching acumen to win this game, so Florida needs to focus on the task at hand and not get caught looking to next week’s game against Tennessee.
Florida 30
UCF 27
MISSISSIPPI at SOUTH CAROLINA
Kentucky proved that everything about its near-upset of Georgia two weeks ago was a fluke when it basically went into Oxford and played the same game it had just played against the Bulldogs. Ole Miss got caught not believing what the Georgia tape was showing them. The Rebels have a potent offense (apparently when it’s not facing an elite defense, at least) and the Ole Miss defense has looked better in the early going than most thought it would. South Carolina won’t be able to do what Kentucky did on defense, but the Gamecocks play with emotion and aren’t scared of a soul, as their performance against heavily-favored LSU two weeks ago proved. The real question is whether the Rebels can keep the Gamecock offense from getting into a groove, because the Rebel offense will score enough points to win given enough possessions. Not the week to have to visit Columbia, but Ole Miss can’t do anything about that. It can, however, keep the half-baked effort on offense from becoming a trend after last week’s disaster.
Ole Miss 38
South Carolina 23
MISSOURI at TEXAS A&M
After a 6-point win over Boston College and then getting taken to overtime by Vanderbilt, perhaps it’s time for Missouri to pump the brakes a bit on the title hype. The Tigers remain undefeated, but we’re really not sure they’ve put a complete game on tape yet. The first two wins (Murray State, Buffalo) were against overmatched competition, and the Boston College and Vanderbilt games should have been runaways. Enter Texas A&M, fresh off a tough win over Arkansas. The Aggies have a budding defense but the offense is going to have to wait for different personnel to come to campus. The Aggies might have the home-field advantage in this one but they lack the ability to keep pace with Missouri’s offense – provided the Vandy and BC games were outliers.
Missouri 30
Texas A&M 20
IDLE: Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN