The Predictions Dept. missed on one game last week, but it was on the result of the Arkansas-Auburn game … so we’ll let it slide. Week 5 will be a short week, with only six games on the slate, and while Alabama-Georgia is the obvious highlight, only Texas-Mississippi State looks to be a bore-fest.
Last Week’s Record: 9-1 (90.0%)
Season Record: 46-8 (85.2%)
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ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Arlington, Texas)
The most curious “neutral site” game in the conference continues, because it’s not really a neutral venue and if Jerry Jones weren’t some kind of Svengali in a cowboy hat, there’s no reason Arkansas would agree to do this every year. The Razorbacks are coming off an important win over Auburn, because it has the chance to launch them forward a bit in a year that started off awkwardly thanks to the Bob Petrino-Sam Pittman dynamic. On top of that, Texas A&M is coming off an unimpressive win over Bowling Green, a decent-but-not-great MAC opponent. The opportunity for Arkansas is there to take another step forward, and back-to-back wins over Auburn and A&M would probably get the heat off Pittman for quite a while. However, Texas A&M still has the better roster, and the better defense. The Aggies just can’t seem to put all the wheels on the track at the same time, offensively. It makes this game interesting for reasons that go beyond each team’s postseason hopes.
Texas A&M 24
Arkansas 19
GEORGIA at ALABAMA
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OKLAHOMA at AUBURN
If this game were in Norman it would be an easy pick. But it isn’t, and there’s still value in games played at Jordan-Hare Stadium, from the AU perspective. Oklahoma played very well on defense last week against a dynamic Tennessee offense, but the combination of a surprisingly good Tennessee defense and a lack of any offensive firepower from Oklahoma doomed the Sooners’ chances. Neither of these teams has a good offense at the moment, and it’s honestly a toss-up as to which offense has more potential. What we’re sure of is that Oklahoma is currently being managed better, on both sides of the ball. Hugh Freeze’s curious decision to strike out at Arkansas in his press comments this week – how Auburn would basically win the next nine games if Arkansas was on the schedule each week – pulled back the covers on some cracks in the Tigers’ foundation. This is a team on the verge of going over the edge, and Oklahoma might just be the ones to push the Tigers off.
Oklahoma 31
Auburn 20
KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI
This could be far more interesting than it first looks. Kentucky’s offense is a mess, but the defense looked elite against Georgia two weeks ago and this is one of the SEC’s most veteran teams. Ole Miss’ offense has looked unstoppable so far, but the Rebels haven’t been tested. Kentucky is well-coached on defense, doesn’t seem to lose its head when things go sideways, and has enough talent to pull the upset. We’re just not sure the Wildcats can score with the Rebels if it turns into a track meet. The higher-scoring this game goes on both sides, the better the Rebels’ chances to stay undefeated.
Ole Miss 34
Kentucky 24
SOUTH ALABAMA at LOUISIANA STATE
When we said only one game this week would be a bore-fest, we weren’t talking about this one. Unfortunately for LSU, which just lost star LB Harold Perkins for the season to a knee injury, the Tigers haven’t inspired any confidence whatsoever in their ability to put away lesser teams. Give the Tigers credit for being persistent on offense, because while both South Carolina and UCLA were far lesser opponents, LSU’s defensive struggles kept the pressure on the Tiger offense to keep up, and it responded in both games. This week, LSU gets a South Alabama team that started with two losses to begin the season, but has since blown out Northwestern State and Appalachian State in consecutive weeks. South Alabama has some defensive talent, but it’s the offense that can trade blows with the best of them that should have LSU fans worried.
LSU 52
South Alabama 34
MISSISSIPPI STATE at TEXAS
Mississippi State lasted just one week into the season before the wheels came off. After a win in the opener over Eastern Kentucky, the Bulldogs have lost three straight to Arizona State, Toledo (!) and Florida. Things aren’t improving; if anything, the Bulldogs are getting less competitive as opponents figure out what the new staff under Jeff Lebby is trying to do. This may be the worst team Texas has played to date, and remember that the Longhorns’ schedule has included Colorado State, Texas-San Antonio and Louisiana-Monroe.
Texas 52
Mississippi St. 10
IDLE: Florida, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN