Wisconsin preview: Bama goes north and the difficulty level goes up

One has to wonder what Wisconsin fans were thinking when news broke of Nick Saban’s retirement.

It probably sounded something like a Jim Carrey movie line: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”

Through the first two weeks of the season, Alabama has won by gaudy margins, even though the South Florida game was painfully close through three quarters. Wisconsin, a team trying to join the ranks of dynamic offensive programs under head coach Luke Fickell, have two modest victories over Western Michigan and South Dakota, a pair of teams that would probably have a good bit of trouble getting past USF.

Alabama stands to get its starting offensive tackles back this week, and it will be interesting to see if the Crimson Tide opens things up a bit versus the Badgers. The USF gameplan looked a bit vanilla in comparison to what fans were expecting. The question for Wisconsin is whether the Badgers can put more points on the board than they’ve been able to these first couple of weeks.

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Projected Alabama Depth Chart vs Wisconsin

OFFENSE

Fickell brought in Phil Longo to transform Wisconsin from a plodding, typical Big Ten run-based attack to a spread passing attack with tempo, its roots in the Air Raid school of things. It didn’t work so well last year; Wisconsin did achieve balance, but it did so by ranking 61^st in rushing offense and 69^th in passing offense, which led to a 7-6 season. So far in 2024, it’s been more of the same: Wisconsin is 51^st in rushing offense and 89^th in passing offense for a total offense ranking of 75^th. More troubling, the Badgers have scored just 28 and 27 points against Western Michigan and South Dakota, respectively. Alabama’s offense against South Florida was decidedly more ground-based than against Western Kentucky, but some have wondered whether Bama was sitting on anything in preparation for the meat of its schedule. Currently, the Tide ranks 23^rd in total offense, 13^th in rushing and 62^nd in passing.

QUARTERBACKS
Alabama made a play for Tyler Van Dyke two years ago when he was considering leaving Miami. With the change in Alabama coaching staffs, Van Dyke was not pursued this most recent offseason, and ended up with the Badger program. He’s a strong, big-bodied quarterback who can shake tackles and move both in and out of the pocket, but he’s not really a dual-threat quarterback. He’s also prone to wildness, but he definitely has the arm to get the ball downfield. Wisconsin was briefly thought to be entertaining somewhat of a two-QB system early on, using sophomore Braedyn Locke as the other half, but that hasn’t happened. Van Dyke is the only QB with stats to this point and we don’t see that changing against Alabama.

Jalen Milroe will start for the Crimson Tide. He was sharp, if lightly used against Western Kentucky, but took every snap against South Florida. In that game, Milroe had his good and bad moments, as he often does, but did enough to get Alabama over the hump. Compared to Van Dyke, Milroe holds an immense edge in running ability and is probably better as a deep passer. You can give the short and intermediate throwing edge to Van Dyke. Ty Simpson probably has the edge over Locke as a backup, but the point here is that all four players are quality. Give Bama the overall edge due to Milroe’s time in the system and what he brings to the running game. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Starter Chez Mellusi has 3 touchdowns already in 2024 but he’s only averaging about 3.8 yards per carry, and doing it against substandard opposition. Mellusi is a Clemson transfer with good size, and put up better per-carry numbers in 2023, but hasn’t found a way to get started up yet this year. Backup Tawee Walker may miss this game with injury, which would make Cade Yacamelli or Darrion Dupree the top option off the bench. Yacemelli has put up some gaudy per-carry numbers (9.0 avg.) so far and is about Mellusi’s size as a runner.

Alabama will alternate Jam Miller and Justice Haynes, and both are hovering around 9 yards per carry. Add in Jalen Milroe’s rushing ability from the quarterback position, and this is looking like a solid edge for the Crimson Tide. Richard Young will back up the starters. Advantage: Alabama

WIDE RECEIVERS
Both teams will be missing some depth; Alabama’s Cole Adams will be out with an elbow injury, while Wisconsin figures to be without Boston College transfer Joseph Griffin Jr. and another reserve, sophomore Quincy Burroughs. Reserve tight end Rob Booker also figures to miss. Wisconsin will be starting Bryson Green, Will Pauling and Vinny Anthony II. C.J. Williams and Trech Kekahuna are the primary reserves. Green, an Oklahoma State transfer, will be the biggest and thickest wideout Bama has faced so far at close to 6’3”, 220 pounds. Pauling followed Fickell from Cincinnati; he and Anthony are significantly smaller bodies, but Pauling is coming off an all-conference showing in 2023. Williams, a USC transfer, has good length. Tucker Ashcraft and Riley Nowakowski will split the tight end spot, and both are viable targets. There’s more experience here than on Alabama’s side of things, where true freshman Ryan Williams is fast becoming the leading target for Jalen Milroe.

Alabama will technically start Kobe Prentice, Kendrick Law and Germie Bernard, although Williams is taking more and more snaps, particularly from Law. Prentice has shown good value in finding open spaces in zone coverage, and Bernard was involved as a runner against USF. With Adams out, the other primary backups will be Emmanuel Henderson Jr. and likely Caleb Odom. Alabama will use at least three tight ends, perhaps four, and all are good receivers: starters C.J. Dippre and Robbie Ouzts and backups Josh Cuevas and Danny Lewis Jr. This is a tough call, because Williams has the most potential, but Green’s ability to create mismatches and Pauling’s track record push it to the Badgers. Very close, though. Advantage: Wisconsin

OFFENSIVE LINE
The 2023 Badger OL put up good numbers despite the paltry output of the offense itself. A year ago, Wisconsin ranked 45^th in sacks allowed and 21^st in tackles for loss allowed. In 2024, those numbers have worsened against lighter opposition. Wisconsin comes in ranked 59^th in sacks allowed and 39^th in tackles for losses allowed.

Alabama is tied with Wisconsin at 39^th in tackles for loss allowed, a nice improvement from last year’s horrid results, but after dealing with USF’s blitz-heavy scheme, the Crimson Tide fell to 82^nd in sacks allowed. What’s different this week is that Alabama probably gets starting LT Kadyn Proctor back, and will almost certainly get Elijah Pritchett back as well. If both are good to go, they’ll start on the left and right sides, respectively, with Wilkin Formby moving to a reserve role. Inside, Tyler Booker will return to left guard, supplanting Geno VanDeMark, while Jaeden Roberts starts at right guard and Parker Brailsford at center. VanDeMark will return to his role as the backup at all three interior positions.

For Wisconsin, Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman will start at left and right tackle, while Joe Brunner and Joe Huber start at the guard spots. Jake Renfro is the center. Nelson, Renfro and Huber are seniors, so there’s a bit of an edge for Wisconsin there in terms of experience. But Alabama has better athleticism and with neither line putting up fantastic stats the last couple of years, we’ll take the team with the edge in potential. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

Wisconsin is an oddity in its defensive alignment; the Badgers run a full-time 2-4-5 look with four linebackers. While that ends up being hard to differentiate from a 4-2-5 – the third and fourth linebackers are essentially Jack and strongside linebackers that can play up or down – it speaks to the mindset of being smaller and quicker on the whole. Last year, it worked: Wisconsin ranked in the top 40 in four of the five major defensive statistical categories and ranked 20^th in the fifth (scoring defense). This year, while there hasn’t been enough games yet to get a clear picture, it looks like the run defense isn’t holding up as well (66^th). Alabama counters with its 4-2-5 Swarm alignment that currently ranks 22^nd in total defense and 2^nd in pass efficiency defense. Both are a work in progress.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Evaluating a unit with just two declared starters is a rarity for us – as in, it’s never happened before. Ordinarily, James Thompson Jr. would be positioned as an interior tackle, but he hasn’t played yet this year and is listed as questionable on some sheets. If Thompson is out, Ben Barten will get the start next to Curt Neal. Barten has good size, but Neal is on the smaller end for FBS tackles. The backups would be Cade McDonald and Albany transfer Elijah Hills. Wisconsin ranks 57^th in sacks and just 115^th in tackles for loss, a year after finishing 56^th and 42^nd in those categories.

Alabama sits at 38^th and 40^th in those two categories at the moment. Tim Keenan is having a breakthrough year, proving to be a good fit for Alabama’s new scheme, while Tim Smith, Damon Payne Jr., James Smith and Jehiem Oatis have all shown promise. This one might be a little closer if Thompson plays for Wisconsin, but for now it looks like a pretty clear edge for Alabama. We’re going to break from tradition and evaluate the Bama defensive ends with the linebacker group since that is what Wisconsin’s OLBs are in spirit. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
Wisconsin returns two starters at this level – LOLB Darryl Peterson and LILB Jake Chaney – but both players were fighting for their jobs in the spring as Wisconsin looked for better options. Aaron Witt will more or less rotate with Peterson, while Chaney gets help from USC transfer Tackett Curtis. The right side includes ROLB John Pius and RILB Jaheim Thomas, the latter an Arkansas transfer. Thomas is currently second on the team in tackles. Syracuse transfer Leon Lowery backs up Pius, while Christian Alliegro is behind Thomas. Everyone is big here – across the line, weights of the starters are 248 (Peterson), 233 (Chaney), 245 (Thomas) and 250 (Pius).

Alabama, meanwhile, is bigger at its Bandit end position with L.T. Overton and Jah-Marien Latham, and smaller and quicker at the Wolf linebacker position with Quandarrius Robinson and Qua Russaw. Inside, Alabama starts Jihaad Campbell and Deonte Lawson, and they’ll probably play the whole first half as Justin Jefferson, who rotates with both, sits out as the result of a targeting call in the third quarter against South Florida. If Alabama has to go to the bench early, Justin Okoronkwo and Cayden Jones, both true freshmen, will have to answer the call.

Alabama has no such depth questions outside, where Keanu Koht adds a good edge option at Wolf, and Jordan Renaud, who can also play tackle, brings some more beef to the Bandit spot. Wisconsin is probably a little bigger in the middle, but Alabama has better speed across the board. The player on either team making the most impact right now is Campbell, and so long as Alabama stays healthy inside, the Tide should carry this one. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
Alabama’s pass defense statistics are excellent at the moment – 9^th in raw pass defense, 2^nd in pass efficiency defense – but that might have more to do with at least one of the quarterbacks the Crimson Tide has faced so far. At the very least, Alabama has had USF quarterback Byrum Brown’s number the last two years. It isn’t like Wisconsin has faced a pair of passing juggernauts, however, yet the Badgers are a bit more average at 22^nd in raw pass defense and 40^th in efficiency defense. Wisconsin has at least two starters that are considered to be top quality: CB Ricardo Hallman and SS Hunter Wohler. Hallman was a 3rd-team All-American in 2023, recording 7 interceptions. Wohler was 2nd-team All-Big Ten and led the Badgers in tackles with 120. He currently leads the 2024 team in tackles with 15. The other three spots, though, aren’t nailed down yet. R.J. Delancy and Nyzier Fourqurean are competing at corner, while Max Lofy and Owen Arnett are battling at nickel.

At free safety, Alabama will see either Austin Brown or Kamo’i Latu. Alabama has put up better numbers, but there is some concern that the Tide’s inexperience will catch up soon, as Bama is using as many as four freshmen at times in the secondary. Domani Jackson, Zabien Brown, DaShawn Jones and Jaylen Mbakwe are splitting corner, with Zavier Mincey also in the discussion, while Devonta Smith and Rydarrius Morgan alternate at the Husky position.

Malachi Moore has been a mainstay at safety, with Keon Sabb settling in beside him. Kameron Howard, King Mack and Bray Hubbard provide depth there. Both teams are unknowns at the moment; it’s questionable whether Western Kentucky and T.J. Finley constituted a “quality” passing attack when the Tide faced them in the opener, but Wisconsin also doesn’t exactly have its rotation settled. We’ll take the Badgers based off continuity in the system. Advantage: Wisconsin

SPECIAL TEAMS
Nathanial Vakos has range concerns at placekicker and has also missed one shorter kick this year, but he’s typically reliable enough from in close. Punter Atticus Bertrams is averaging more than 48 yards per punt and Wisconsin is 14^th in net punting. Wisconsin has struggled in kickoff return defense (82^nd) and punt return defense (77^th), and is 60^th in kickoff returns and just 112^th in punt returns. That may bode well for Alabama, which comes into the game ranked 2^nd in kickoff returns.

Alabama is no worse than equal in punting with James Burnip, and Graham Nicholson holds a decisive edge over Vakos at placekicker. What isn’t known yet is how well Jaylen Mbakwe, a true freshman, will replace the injured Cole Adams long-term as the punt returner. Mbakwe had one nice return against South Florida, so the potential is there. Overall, Alabama just feels as if it has an edge on all special teams units based off the Tide’s superior depth and team speed. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, Wisconsin in two, and the two closest calls on the board are the ones in which the Badgers lead. For the OL-DL cross-matchups, Alabama’s DL should have a solid edge over the Wisconsin OL, while the reverse is either a slimmer Alabama edge or a push, and largely depends on the health of Alabama’s offensive line.

If this game were in Tuscaloosa, we’d probably be picking a three- or four-score win. With the game at Camp Randall – DeBoer’s first road test and the team’s first early game – we think the margin will tighten up, perhaps quite a bit. Wisconsin has a legitimate path to upsetting Alabama; Van Dyke is capable of having one of those days at quarterback, while the Wisconsin defense is capable of confounding opponents and forcing turnovers in the passing game.

However, Alabama is the better team and by far the faster team, and Wisconsin is still trying to convince itself – and its fans – that an Air Raid-derived spread attack is the answer up north. This game may follow the South Florida path: close to start, but with Bama pulling away a bit as it grows comfortable in its surroundings.

Alabama 31
Wisconsin 17

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