DEFENSE
South Florida operates mostly from a four-man front, essentially a 4-2-5 base look with one of the defensive ends given more pass-rush responsibility. So far, rush defense has been solid but the pass defense hasn’t been able to keep up. There’s a general talent deficiency on this team but the defense is more veteran than the offense, by several degrees. As good as Alabama looked against MTSU out of its 3-4 over/under alignment, things went south in a hurry against Texas.
The Alabama rush defense has been solid so far, with the Crimson Tide more effective than its current statistical rating (37th) largely due to being ranked alongside teams like USF that have played a couple of patsies. The primary problem for Alabama right now is getting to the quarterback and affecting the passing game.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Getting Doug Blue-Eli to transfer in from TCU allows South Florida to play a true nosetackle, which subsequently allows the Bulls to play more multiple fronts. Minnesota transfer Rashad Cheney starts next to Blue-Eli.
The ends are homegrown Tramel Logan and the Bulls’ transfer portal prize, former Florida DE Lloyd Summerall. Summerall plays a position called “Edge” which more or less means he’s the designated havoc-causer here; in reality, he and Logan are equal height and size. More transfers – tackles Bernard Gooden (Wake Forest) and Immanuel Hickman (East Carolina) and DE Jonathan Ross (Bowie State) provide the principal depth. Size is an issue with both Gooden and Ross.
Alabama will likely again start Tim Keenan at nosetackle with Justin Eboigbe, Jaheim Oatis and Tim Smith rotating between the two end positions. Jah-Marien Latham provides outside depth while Damon Payne Jr. backs up Keenan. Between good work up front against the run, coupled with support from the linebackers, Alabama could wind up with a solid unit, but it must learn how to turn up the pressure against the passing game. South Florida is improving via the transfer portal, but it has virtually equal metrics to Alabama while facing lesser opposition. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Another Minnesota transfer, D.J. Gordon, and former JUCO player Jhalyn Shuler are South Florida’s two starters here. As one would expect, they are Nos. 1 and 3 tacklers on the team, with the defensive scheme designed to funnel plays into the linebacker level in general. Gordon has some ability as a coverage linebacker, and the Bulls rank 14th in tackles for loss, in large part due to how active the LB unit is. If there’s a knock on Gordon, it’s that he lacks optimal size.
Alabama’s inside linebackers played their second solid game in a row against Texas. Deontae Lawson has been a force in the middle, while Trezmen Marshall and Kendrick Blackshire have developed into an effective linebacker tandem at weakside. It will be interesting to see whether Jihaad Campbell returns this week and how his return might affect the rotation at WLB or even whether the coaches would consider spelling Lawson at MLB from time to time. Campbell had a solid fall camp before being hurt late. Outside, Alabama had good effort in the opener against MTSU but got almost no production at Texas.
Dallas Turner, Chris Braswell and Quandarrius Robinson absolutely must do a better job of getting off their blocks. It’s hard to compare these two units because with the way the USF defense is built, Braswell and Turner are more analogous to USF’s defensive ends, Tramel Logan and Lloyd Summerall. If we’re talking specifically about how the two linebackers in the middle of the field for each team compare, then Alabama holds the edge there. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Both teams are struggling statistically, but with such a small sample size after just two weeks, it’s hard to draw any relevant conclusions from the raw stats. Bama does better in an overall pass defense comparison, but USF has been better at pass efficiency defense. The real question is how healthy Alabama is. Cornerback Ga’Quincy McKinstry is banged up, as are safeties Malachi Moore and Jaylen Key, and another safety, Devonta Smith, has yet to dress out.
For now, expect McKinstry and Terrion Arnold to start at the cornerback spots for Alabama, with Caleb Downs, Moore and Key starting at the safeties. Trey Amos and Kristian Story are the primary backups. USF will start a pair of transfer cornerbacks, Nebraska’s Braxton Clark and Kansas State’s Aamaris Brown. Clark, at 6’4” and almost 210 pounds, is somewhat of a freak of nature at cornerback.
The safety trio surprisingly has no transfers among them – Logan Berryhill, Jaelen Stokes and Daquan Evans. The secondary is about on par with MTSU’s, maybe slightly better due to the better corners. Even with Alabama’s struggles against Texas, we should see reversion to the mean in this game, if for no other reason than South Florida probably can’t pressure Alabama’s secondary the way Texas could. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
John Cannon will kick field goals and PATs while Brendan Farrell will kick off. The punter is Andrew Stokes. We can basically stop the personnel listing here, because Alabama currently leads the nation in net punting behind James Burnip and Will Reichard is one of the best placekickers in college football, if not the best overall. Coverage and returns also favor Alabama. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, USF in just one, and even that one (running backs) is fairly close. In the OL-DL cross-matchup analysis, Alabama’s offensive line should be able to contend with South Florida’s personnel groupings. Alabama strongly controls the matchup of its DL against the South Florida OL, even though Alabama’s defensive line has been nothing special so far.
For these reasons, we don’t expect anything the quarterbacks do to be particularly illuminating. Alabama should win easily, road game or not, unless the Crimson Tide is already preparing to throw in the towel mentally. That would be very unlike a Nick Saban-coached team, however, and even in the worst possible scenarios for this weekend, the Tide should come out of this game with a two-score win.
After this, the SEC schedule starts, and Alabama won’t have another truly easy game until Chattanooga comes calling the week before the Auburn game. This is Alabama’s last chance to set up the depth chart for a title challenge – but the coaches may feel like they’ve already done that.
Alabama 41
USF 14
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