Heading into Alabama’s off-week, focus turns to several games of note in the SEC, while Alabama rests. It’s easier to discuss the one game that figures to be of minor interest (Missouri-South Carolina) rather than the four that all have major implications in both division races.
Last week’s record: 3-2 (60.0%)
Season record: 61-13 (82.4%)
FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville, Fla.)
Florida seems to be improving under Billy Napier but it’s unlikely the Gators are good enough yet to hold off a far more veteran and well-put-together Georgia team. The Gators still need more consistent play on offense, and are trying to manage several years of recruiting – especially along the lines of scrimmage – that simply weren’t up to modern Florida standards. Georgia is under scrutiny from its own fans a bit for a handful of lackluster performances in 2022, but the bigger concern for Georgia is what happens when the Bulldogs square off against Tennessee in a week. Struggling here against Florida wouldn’t make anyone feel better about the subsequent matchup.
Georgia 35
Florida 20
KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE
This game will tell us just how serious a contender Tennessee is. The Volunteers are a week removed from an emotional win over their biggest rival, and next week, must travel to meet the defending national champion and current division leader. In between, they must face a tough Kentucky team with an elite quarterback. Tennessee got a lot of press for how it moved the ball on Alabama’s defense, but the flip side to that analysis is that Alabama still outgained the Volunteers. It doesn’t mean anything now, of course, at least not for Alabama’s sake – but it means a good bit for Kentucky’s chances. This is a substantial sandwich the Vols find themselves in the middle of, and if the game were in Lexington, we’d be inclined to call it an upset.
Tennessee 45
Kentucky 41
MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA
This one is interesting purely from the standpoint that South Carolina is lurking in the shadows and hoping for some kind of miracle scenario in which a bunch of teams in the SEC East wind up with two losses. Because the Gamecocks have only one loss inside the division, it creates some actual drama with the SEC East standings. Understand, though, that in addition to beating a Missouri team that is improving defensively, South Carolina would also have to knock off Florida and Tennessee down the stretch, it’s not a likely scenario. But South Carolina being 5-2 at this point in the year wasn’t a likely scenario, and look where the Gamecocks are.
South Carolina 27
Missouri 19
ARKANSAS at AUBURN
Arkansas skidded a bit following its loss to Alabama, getting beaten handily by Mississippi State, but bouncing back nicely on the road against BYU. Auburn, who knows? It’s kind of a mess there at the moment, and head coach Bryan Harsin is almost certainly on his way out. But the game is still in Jordan-Hare Stadium and Arkansas hasn’t always responded well to playing in that venue. Auburn has dealt with an outflow of players recently and at 3-4, must pull a couple of upsets to get bowl-eligible. Assuming Texas A&M is on the verge of truly imploding, this is the next-best upset possibility left on the board. But Arkansas is the better team at this point.
Arkansas 27
Auburn 23
MISSISSIPPI at TEXAS A&M
Ole Miss’ increasingly porous defense finally caught up to the Rebels against LSU last week, and in most years, having to turn around and play a game in College Station the following week would be a tall order. But that was before Texas A&M apparently decided to get a head start on the offseason. The Aggies are 3-4 with a real chance of finishing 5-7 or even 4-8 on the year. It would be one of the biggest collapses in recent conference memory and could end up costing Jimbo Fisher his job. An inexplicable loss on the road to South Carolina last week was sort of rancid syrup over the sundae, and in the days since, there have been stories breaking from Aggie camp that several players have been suspended or have left the team outright. Ole Miss probably needed a little help to bounce back from the LSU loss and get a win here – well, it got it.
Ole Miss 41
Texas A&M 28
IDLE: Alabama, Vanderbilt, LSU, Mississippi State
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