Rating the units: Sometimes, the numbers don’t add up

In most years, our Rating the Units feature backs up our subjective analysis of SEC teams, serving as a means of demonstrating how and why certain teams will either succeed or struggle.

Not this year.

For two SEC teams in particular, the unit ratings method yields results wildly different from where we project them to finish. This happens occasionally, but not to the extent we’re seeing it happen in 2022. It will make the season even that much more interesting: Are our eyes to be trusted, or will the numbers reign supreme?

In this article, you will be introduced to a scoring system that allows each of the 14 SEC teams to be judged against the other teams in its division – and then against all 13 other teams together, regardless of division – so as to remove some of the subjectivity out of the rankings.

What follows is a ranking of every position group of every team in the SEC, and we try to make the results as objective as we can.

You’ll notice eight unit divisions – quarterbacks (QB), running backs (RB), wide receivers and tight ends (WR), offensive line (OL), defensive line (DL), linebackers (LB), defensive backs (DB) and kickers, punters, return men and coverage units (ST, for special teams).

Prior to 2004, ratings were doled out to each team during the individual previews. The only way to compare teams was for the reader to manually swap back and forth between two separate reports. In the individual reports, ratings are assigned as follows: Excellent (Ex), Very Good (Vg), Average (Av), Fair (Fr) and Poor (Pr). It also bears mentioning that teams can have a great starter at a particular position, but if depth is poor behind that starter, the ranking for the unit as a whole can be affected. These are unit rankings, not rankings of individuals.

In this first comparison box, you’ll see the 2022 SEC teams compared against each other within their respective divisions. The team with the highest score is ranked first. At the end of the report, we’ll summarize.

Summary

In this first graphic, a numerical value is assigned – seven points for first place in the division, six for second and so forth. Here’s each team’s point total after the first comparison:

Immediately, the two surprises stand out – Missouri in the SEC East and Ole Miss in the SEC West, for different reasons. We picked Missouri to go 5-7, 1-7 and Ole Miss to finish 10-2, 6-2 in their respective divisions. But when you add the math from the unit ranking matrix into things, those predictions look almost foolhardy.

In Ole Miss’ case, the Rebels are not far off fourth place in an SEC West that features elite Alabama at the top followed by a jumble of also-rans scrambling for second place. This is not out of line with most prognosticators’ subjective opinions on the SEC West, so we might let that one slide. But Missouri is a serious statistical outlier. Not only do the Tigers place second in a competitive SEC East, they do so only 2 points off division-leading Georgia – a team we think will finish the regular season undefeated.

Other milder surprises include Kentucky sinking to fifth in the East in our unit rankings, despite some observers projecting the Wildcats as a potential division spoiler. In the West, Arkansas overperforms its predicted finish, while LSU falls well down the list. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, isn’t a surprise to finish distinctly dead last in its division, but 12 points are only 4 more than the bare minimum a team can be given.

Now, we combine the two divisions and judge the 14 teams against each other, irrespective of geography:

The first thing evident when both divisions are combined is that Alabama is clearly the best team in the SEC. Alabama’s total of 100 points sets a new record for the 14-team SEC era, eclipsing its own record of 98 set in 2019. Alabama’s worst point category in 2022 was offensive line, where the Tide garnered 8 points, still not a terrible haul for that category.

The gap back to Georgia at 81 is significant. Last year, Alabama out-pointed Georgia 96 to 92 in this same comparison and won the SEC Championship. The other item of note here is Vanderbilt getting just 18 points overall, a horrific final tally and 8 points less than the Commodores’ 26 points they received a year ago.

So what does this all mean? Over the years, TideFans.com/NARCAS has typically been quite accurate in its preseason predictions, both in regards to subjective analysis and in our Rating the Units feature.

In 2021, there was only one major outlier, Mississippi State. The RTU matrix had the Bulldogs tied for 13^th with Vanderbilt at 26 points, but the Bulldogs eventually rose far above such plebeian numbers. For that matter, the RTU spreadsheet also undervalued Ole Miss (56 points, tied for 8^th) and overvalued Missouri, with whom Ole Miss was tied. The only team that the RTU matrix overrated was LSU, which placed 3^rd with 81 points – and when the misses are that big, it’s typically due to a team underachieving, which the Tigers did. Head coach Ed Orgeron was asked to step down as a result.

Outside of our correct ranking and grading of Alabama and Georgia, the RTU matrix accurately pegged Kentucky and Texas A&M as teams to watch, and correctly downgraded Auburn.

Pitching this forward, we believe the RTU matrix overvalues Missouri and possibly Tennessee, and undervalues Ole Miss and LSU. We also are intrigued to see if Vanderbilt proves to be as bad as its rating suggests.

As always, take this research for what it really is – entertainment.