Tennessee preview: Vols’ new process still has training wheels attached

DEFENSE

Pruitt’s specialty, Tennessee’s defense is a work in progress. That makes it a significant improvement over last year, when the Vols ranked 126^th against the run, 83^rd in scoring defense and 82^nd in total defense. This year’s numbers: 61^st against the run, 64^th in scoring defense and 47^th in total defense. Pass defense has fallen off a bit from last year’s ranking, but that was likely due in part to 2017 opponents never having to do anything to win other than hand off safely. This is 3-4 over/under base identical in makeup to Alabama’s, but not yet with comparable talent. Alabama ranks 33^rd in rushing defense, 7^th in scoring defense and 16^th in total defense. The Tide holds a strong edge in pass defense, as well.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Tennessee took a big hit when Jack LB/DE Jonathan Kongbo went down against Auburn with an ACL injury. He hadn’t recorded many tackles, but he led the team in QB hurries with 4, and his departure is going to make a starter of either DeAndre Johnson, Paul Bain or Matthew Butler, none of whom is really ready. Bain has been the most productive of the three but he lacks the ability to play in a stand-up role. At nose, Shy Tuttle has taken up space but hasn’t really been a difference-maker.

The two ends, Alexis Johnson and Kyle Phillips, have both been productive, second and fourth on the team in tackles respectively and making an impact against both run and pass. With Kongbo out, depth takes a significant hit. Emmit Gooden will back up Tuttle at nose.

Alabama will counter with Quinnen Williams inside flanked by Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs at the ends. There is some minor cloudiness about Davis’ playing status this week; he was caught on tape punching a Missouri player, reportedly in retaliation for an earlier slight against a teammate, which opens him up to league discipline. Saban said in a press conference earlier this week that he supported Davis’ playing time being affected, but didn’t specify how it would be.

If Davis is suspended for a half, or for even a few series, senior Johnny Dwight would likely get his first career start. LaBryan Ray and Phildarian Mathis will also see time in this game, as might Tevita Musika and Stephon Wynn Jr. Alabama ranks 12^th and 29^th in sacks and tackles for loss; Tennessee ranks 68^th and 96^th in this same categories. You do the math. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS
With Kongbo’s run at Jack over and DeAndre Johnson probably headed into that spot, the biggest question is how will Darrell Taylor’s and Jordan Allen’s playing time at strongside linebacker be affected. One or both might be tried at Jack depending on how the shuffling goes there. Meanwhile, the team’s leading tackler and best player, MLB Daniel Bituli, will sit out the first half thanks to aftermath of a targeting foul last week. With Bituli out, Will Ignont will get the start next to WLB Darrin Kirkland Jr.

The damage could be worse, as Ignont has been highly productive off the bench, but he’s not the dynamic player at and behind the line that Bituli is. Quart’e Sapp, who is notable mainly because he allegedly refused to enter a game earlier this year at Pruitt’s direction (Pruitt says it happened, Sapp says it didn’t), is still on the team and will back up Kirkland.

While that circus is playing out, Alabama’s linebacker group had a statement game against Missouri. Mack Wilson played his best game of the year by far at middle linebacker. Dylan Moses didn’t play much against the Tigers, as the Crimson Tide was in dime for much of the night, but he made impactful plays when he did. The outside linebacker tandem of Christian Miller and Anfernee Jennings combined to harass Missouri QB Drew Lock into several errors. Jamey Mosley and Josh McMillon will be the primary backups along with Eyabi Anoma.

Tennessee has improved greatly here and were it not for what the Tide showed last week against Missouri, the Vols would hold an edge. But with Kongbo out and Bituli sidelined for a half, combined with the Tide’s improvement, Bama pushes ahead. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS
The strength of the back end is at safety, where experienced starters Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy reside. Having said that, they’ve combined for just 1 pass break-up and neither has recorded an interception. Warrior and Abernathy would be be described as “being there” more than as game-changers at their respective positions.

What’s most shocking is that despite modern offenses being what they are, Warrior ranks no better than 5^th on the team in tackles, which leads the secondary. The corners are Baylen Buchanan and true freshman Alontae Taylor. Taylor is a star in the making, forcing 2 fumbles, blocking a kick and making an impact beyond just his coverage skills. Bryce Thompson, Theo Jackson and Trevon Flowers will be the primary extra DBs.

Alabama will start Saivion Smith and Patrick Surtain II at the corners, with Xavier McKinney and Deionte Thompson at the safeties. Shyheim Carter gets the call at Star, with Jared Mayden playing the dime role. Missouri went after Smith last week and it backfired big-time, as Smith intercepted 2 passes, nearly returning one for a touchdown. Alabama is capable of a far greater impact from this group, and the size of Bama’s starting corners gives them a good matchup to Tennessee’s bigger receivers. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Tennessee placekicker Brent Cimaglia is 7-of-8 on field goals and perfect on extra points, which by itself is almost enough to pitch this category to the Vols. Add in Joe Doyle’s 42.5-yard average at punter, and it’s a landslide. Tennessee has struggled on both punt and kick returns, however, largely a function of a lack of athletes compared to the competition. Kickoff return defense has been mediocre but the Vols cover punts extremely well.

Alabama ranks 13^th in both kickoff returns and punt returns, and despite issues with the punting, is one of the best punt coverage teams in the nation. The issue for Alabama is in the kicking game itself. Placekicker Joseph Bulovas continues to improve – he hit 3 of 4 field goals last week and all PATs – but some week-to-week consistency would be nice. Unfortunately, there may be no solving the woes in the punting game.

Skyler DeLong hit a 12-yard punt against Missouri and his struggles may now be deeply rooted in the mental game. If so, it’s probably time to take a look at walk-on senior Mike Bernier, who lacks DeLong’s raw leg strength but could certainly do no worse at this point. Until this gets fixed, Alabama is likely to trail all opponents in special teams this year, maybe even The Citadel. Advantage: Tennessee

OVERALL

Alabama leads in seven categories, Tennessee in one. Alabama strongly controls both OL-DL head-to-head matchups.

In short, this game shouldn’t be close at all. It more or less comes down to Tua Tagovailoa’s knee and how long the Tide coaches will expose it to enemy fire. If Tagovailoa plays the entire first half, expect another ugly halftime score and a second half marked by redshirt management. If Tagovailoa either doesn’t play (unlikely) or plays just a few series (plausible), then Tennessee might keep the score out of pure blowout territory.

The real question is just how bad is Auburn, because if the Tigers are in the middle of one of their patented collapses, Tennessee’s win last week meant very little. The Tennessee team that has been blown out by West Virginia, Florida and Georgia is probably the real Tennessee, not the one that took down an Auburn squad in the middle of a fire-the-coach party with a quarterback suddenly scared to pull the trigger downfield.

There is no doubt Jeremy Pruitt wants to make a good showing against his former boss and alma mater; there’s even less of a doubt Phil Fulmer would sell off a major organ if it meant upsetting Alabama here. But the fact of the matter is the Volunteers just don’t have it. The path to a UT victory probably includes an early injury to Tagovailoa followed by Jalen Hurts, who is significantly improved over last year, suddenly regressing to his 2017 Auburn performance.

In other words, get your cigars ready, Bama fans.

Alabama 52
Tennessee 10

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Follow Jess Nicholas on Twitter at @TideFansJessN