DEFENSE
There was a time when John Chavis was one of the top coordinators in not just the SEC, but the country. He’s on the downside of his career now, but he can still be effective as a coordinator when he gets good linebacker play, always the hallmark of his best defenses. Arkansas has been good against the run (22nd), and that’s probably not a mirage given that Auburn and Texas A&M were prior opponents. But the Razorbacks are 99th in raw pass defense and 65th in pass efficiency defense. They’ll base from a pure 4-3 alignment, as is Chavis’ custom, but Alabama will have the Razorbacks in nickel most of the day. The Crimson Tide’s 3-4 over/under scheme has good numbers in pass efficiency defense (3rd) and scoring defense (5th), but rankings of 43rd against the run and 23rd in total defense are higher than what Bama typically posts.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Arkansas has respectable numbers in tackles for loss (32nd) and sacks (50th) given the talent limitations, and most of that success is due to a defensive line that is playing above its head. The emergence of Armon Watts at defensive tackle allowed Arkansas to slide McTelvin Agim out to defensive end and the results have been stellar.
The fifth-year senior Watts, who wasn’t even in the two-deep coming out of spring, and who appeared in just six games the last two years, has 4.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and is sixth on the team in total tackles, leading the DL. He also leads the team in forced fumbles and is tied for third on the team in QB hurries. Agim at end creates problems because he’s quick enough to play outside in a 4-man front despite weighing more than 280 pounds. Tackle T.J. Smith and end Randy Ramsey round out the starting group. Agim has 7 QB hurries, as many as the next three Razorbacks combined.
Alabama will start Quinnen Williams in the middle, flanked by Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs outside. Johnny Dwight, LaBryan Ray and Phidarian Mathis will also contribute, along with Tevita Musika. Alabama has been especially dominant up the middle, where Williams has done his fair share of damage. The Tide has more raw ability, but a salute goes out to Watts, Agim and the Razorbacks for competing up front regardless of how the season has gone. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Here is where Chavis’ positive influence has been most evident. Weakside linebacker Dre Greenlaw and middle linebacker De’Jon Harris have been active playmakers, not surprising given both are battle-tested SEC veterans. Greenlaw has 2 of the 3 interceptions the Hogs have recorded in 2018, and his ability to drop into coverage and be effective is a huge plus for this team. He and Harris have combined for 9.5 tackles for loss, which is a key for a Chavis defense in that the linebackers have to get up the field and fill holes in the running game.
Strongside linebacker Hayden Henry is the first guy off the field when the nickel comes out, but even when he’s been called upon he hasn’t done much. Reserve linebacker – and all-name hall-of-famer – Bumper Pool is the top reserve inside and has been very active when in the game. So, too, have Deon Edwards and Grant Morgan been. Alabama will start Mack Wilson and Dylan Moses inside, with Anfernee Jennings and Christian Miller patrolling the outside.
Alabama still hasn’t developed much depth behind this group – fifth-year senior Jamey Mosley is about the only reserve that can be on the field without a dropoff in performance – but the starters have been adequate. Arkansas will try to challenge Miller and Jennings by using backs out of the backfield in the passing game, which has been a soft spot in the Tide defense in 2018. This category is actually very close and is one of the few places Arkansas holds a slim depth edge. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
It’s been forever since Arkansas has had a truly game-changing pass defense, and forever won’t end in 2018. A lot of the good done by the front seven gets quickly undone by this group, which has just one interception on the year and lacks overall athleticism. The best of the bunch is probably cornerback Ryan Pulley, who is one of the better run-support corners in the conference, and strong safety Kamren Curl, who should be one of the better safeties in the league with an additional year under his belt. Free safety Santos Ramirez racks up tackles, but has never quite lived up to the hype.
The real issue is at the off-corner position, where Chevin Calloway started the year before leaving the team for personal reasons. Freshman Jarques McClellion has been there since, with another freshman, Montaric Brown, forced to back up both corner positions. The waterfall of Calloway’s departure forced a linebacker, D’Vone McClure, into the nickel safety role, for which he is supremely not suited. Derrick Munson and Nate Dalton provide depth there, but Arkansas is clearly trying to pull rabbits out of hats at the spot.
Alabama counters with Patrick Surtain Jr., Trevon Diggs and Saivion Smith at the corners and Deionte Thompson, Xavier McKinney and Shyheim Carter at the safeties. All six are playmakers. This one isn’t particularly close. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama ranks 89th in net punting, but Arkansas ranks 124th. It’s as much a fault of a putrid kick coverage unit as it is the punter; Arkansas ranks 117th in defending punts and 124th in stopping kickoff returns. Neither Blake Johnson nor Reid Bauer has proven to be the answer at punter. At kicker, Connor Limpert is 7-of-10, but those three misses have occurred at medium range. The Razorbacks rank 85th in kickoff returns but they’re dangerous at returning punts (14th), thanks to Deon Stewart averaging nearly 20 yards a return.
Alabama covers kicks and punts as good or better than most, and the Crimson Tide ranks 15th in punt returns and leads the nation in kickoff returns. The question here is going to be how well punter Skyler DeLong and placekicker Joseph Bulovas do when they report for duty. Bulovas is just 4-of-7 on kicks and his misses have come from in close. DeLong didn’t punt against Louisiana, but his performance against Texas A&M was not particularly encouraging. Alabama hasn’t seemed tempted yet to try Mike Bernier at the spot, so it’s apparently DeLong’s to lose. Basically no one is actually kicking the ball well, so it falls back to the return game, and that’s where Alabama shines. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
It’s a straight eight for Alabama this week, and special teams isn’t even the closest call on the board. That would be linebacker, but either of those two categories could be given to the Razorbacks without much objection. Alabama strongly controls the matchup of its defensive line against the Razorback OL; when the roles are switched, the gap between Alabama’s OL and Arkansas’ DL is much smaller, but the Tide still leads.
With all categories in Alabama’s pocket plus the two OL-DL head-to-head matchups, this shouldn’t really be a close game. Texas A&M’s close call against Arkansas, as stated before, was probably much more a function of the Aggies coming off a whipping to Bama than Arkansas suddenly finding its way.
The jury is out on Chad Morris as a coach either way. He wasn’t particularly successful at SMU, and Arkansas turned to him out of a combination of his old resume as an offensive coordinator, mixed with the reality that the Razorback program isn’t as competitive these days as it once was. This game could either help him make his case as a coach of a relevant program – or, if it goes like Alabama’s games against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, put the Razorbacks on the road to near-term ruin. And it’s more likely to be the latter than the former.
Alabama 45
Arkansas 10
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