Ole Miss preview: Time for Alabama to figure this Rebel team out

DEFENSE

The Rebels more or less didn’t play defense last year, and that was something the Luke staff hoped to fix. So far, they haven’t. Ole Miss comes in ranked 59^th in total defense, mostly due to a ranking of 95^th against the run, something Alabama is likely to be able to exploit. The Rebels are a much more respectable 37^th in raw pass defense and 22^nd in pass efficiency defense, which harkens back to the heyday of the whole “Landshark” movement in Oxford. The Rebels will base from a 4-3 set that operates more like a 4-2-5. Alabama counters with its 3-4 over/under that has started to jell into a typical Nick Saban defense: 7^th in total defense, 5^th in rushing defense, 4^th in scoring defense, 30^th in raw pass defense and 17^th in pass efficiency defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE

The Rebels have not only been horrid against the run, they’re 112^th in sacks and the defensive line has combined for just two. End Marquis Haynes, who was expected to anchor a pass-rush group that Ole Miss hoped would have made an early impact, has just a half-sack to his name and has been largely contained. The one unassisted sack was registered by Breeland Speaks, who lacks the size typically found in an SEC defensive tackle. Josiah Coatney or Benito Jones will be the other starting tackle, with Victor Evans, who turned in the other half-sack, manning the other end opposite Haynes. Evans and Coatney have been decent at getting penetration at times, but consistency is an issue across the board and depth is thin. Qaadir Sheppard and Markel Winters are the top options at reserve end.

For Alabama, Da’Ron Payne starts up the middle, with Da’Shawn Hand, Isaiah Buggs and Raekwon Davis rotating at end. Joshua Frazier and Johnny Dwight offer depth at tackle, while Jamar King and Quinnen Williams will be factors at end. Alabama hasn’t made much hay in either the sack department (105^th) or tackles for loss (102^nd), but the Tide has been much more effective at clogging up the run, and is starting to get more pressure now that injured players are returning. Advantage: Alabama

LINEBACKERS

Alabama got a big boost last week when Anfernee Jennings and Rashaan Evans returned to the field. Jennings especially proved hard for Vanderbilt to deal with, as his ability to set the edge in the running game was a key to Alabama’s win. As Evans continues to get healthy, his presence both inside and outside will be something most offenses won’t want to face. For now, look for Evans to continue to rotate with Shaun Dion Hamilton, Keith Holcombe and Mack Wilson inside. Jennings should start at Jack, with Jamey Mosley at strongside linebacker. Christopher Allen and Joshua McMillon will back up the outside spots.

Ole Miss has only two true linebacker slots, and only one of those players – outside linebacker DeMarquis Gates – has decent experience. Brenden Williams and Detric Bing-Dukes will split the other spot. Willie Hibbler adds depth. Gates is the team’s leading tackler, and has good ability against both running and passing attacks. The middle linebacker combination of Williams, Bing-Dukes and Hibbler, though has been largely unimpressive. Gates’ size is also an issue. Ole Miss will use A.J. Moore as a hybrid safety/linebacker, backed up by Jerrion Street. Both players are under 200 pounds. Unlike traditional 4-2-5 sets, Ole Miss tends to shade its hybrid to the weakside, prioritizing speed over bulk. It was a role Denzel Nkemdiche excelled at during his time in Oxford; not so much the current group of players. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSIVE BACKS

One thing the Moore/Street combination at weakside linebacker/rover safety does is allow Ole Miss to be more active in pass defense and take more chances. Myles Hartsfield and Jaylen Julius are experienced cornerbacks but not particularly big, and Alabama’s receiving corps does have some height options. Javien Hamilton adds depth. Third corner Ken Webster is another shorter cornerback, while reserve Jaylon Jones needs some bulk. Zedrick Woods, C.J. Hampton and C.J. Moore will form up the starting safety unit. Moore has 2 of the team’s 3 interceptions, but has size issues. Hampton and Woods are thicker players, but there’s not a lot of height here. Woods isn’t flashy but does make steady plays.

Alabama will start Levi Wallace and Anthony Averett at corner, with Minkah Fitzpatrick, Ronnie Harrison, Tony Brown and Laurence Jones making up the primary safety group. Xavier McKinney and Deionte Thompson offer depth at safety while Trevon Diggs and Shyheim Carter bolster the corner ranks. Wallace has developed into Alabama’s most reliable perimeter defender, but the playmaking ability of the safety group is where this team really excels. They’ll all be challenged by Shea Patterson’s abilities this week. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS

Andy Pappanastos transferred from Ole Miss to Alabama in part to get away from backing up strong-legged Gary Wunderlich – and Pappanastos is arguably having a better year. Wunderlich is 4-of-6 on field goal tries, but has missed both attempts of more than 29 yards. He’s also missed two extra points. Pappanastos, meanwhile, is on a hot streak, hitting 8 of 10 field goal attempts, including 2 of 4 from beyond 40 yards, and all 19 PAT tries. Punters Will Gleeson and Mac Brown have both been strong for Ole Miss, helping the Rebels to a ranking of 21^st in net punting. The Rebels are 3^rd in the nation in kickoff returns, but a paltry 115^th in punt returns. They cover all kicks well.

Alabama’s J.K. Scott has stats that belie his ability, thanks to several short punts when Alabama was inside the midfield stripe. He’s been a weapon on kickoffs. The Tide is a respectable 38^th on punt returns but has struggled to a ranking of 90^th on kickoff returns. Punt return defense is 7^th nationally, while kickoff return defense is a surprising 73^rd, pretty much the result of one long return allowed earlier in the year. This is about as close to a push as one can get, and may actually come down to who has the hotter kicker – which would be Alabama. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in six categories, Ole Miss in two, but the Rebels could easily take the special teams category if looked at from a different perspective. Most importantly, Alabama strongly controls both OL-DL matchups.

The real question is which Alabama will show up, the one that terrorized Vanderbilt a week ago, or the Alabama team that has looked tight and unsure for the last three years when facing the Rebels. Perhaps the best thing about this matchup for Alabama is Hugh Freeze won’t be on the Ole Miss sideline. For whatever reason, Freeze had Alabama’s number defensively, and was able to direct his offense right into the cracks and crevices left by Nick Saban’s defensive schemes.

Matt Luke was Freeze’s former offensive coordinator, however, so it’s not like the Rebels are flying blind. Luke will do his best to convince his charges that this is the same Alabama team the Rebels were able to beat in consecutive years. But without a running game, how will Ole Miss pull it off?

The best chance for Ole Miss to win is for Shea Patterson to be hot out of the gate and get even hotter as the game goes along. Patterson has played well enough so far for this scenario to not be implausible. And Alabama still has yet to show it believes it is markedly better than Ole Miss.

For now, expect this to be another close, uncomfortable game. The Rebels are probably better than anyone thinks. And we’ll believe Alabama can dominate a team with this kind of offensive makeup when we actually see it happen.

Alabama 31
Ole Miss 23

READ MORE:
Return to Bama vs Ole Miss OFFENSE Preview