DEFENSE
Somewhat unexpectedly, Auburn’s defense improved significantly from 2015 to 2016. The Tigers have continued to migrate to a form of the 3-4 over/under that new defensive Kevin Steele was obviously familiar with from his time under Nick Saban. Auburn is 18th in total defense and 17th in rushing defense, but the pass defense – 54th in raw pass defense, 15th in pass efficiency defense – still has some work to do. As we’ll see in the unit rankings below, some of Auburn’s statistical rankings are a bit misleading, with the strength of the defensive line being hampered by weaknesses elsewhere. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in rushing defense, 2nd in total defense, 13th in raw pass defense and 9th in pass efficiency defense, making this a vintage Saban defense to the core. Alabama and Auburn rank 2nd and 7th in scoring defense, respectively. This will be war.
DEFENSIVE LINE
This is the best defensive line Alabama will face all year. Alabama fans would argue that’s because Alabama will never play its own line, but Auburn’s DL has had to shoulder a disproportionate share of responsibility this year given breakdowns in other units, particularly the secondary. Dontavious Russell and Montravius Adams will start at tackle, and Adams in particular picked a good year to finally wake up. He has made himself a lot of NFL money in 2016, as it’s a toss-up between him and Alabama’s Da’Ron Payne over who is the most feared tackle in the SEC. Adams has been productive behind the line of scrimmage (8.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 15 QB hurries) but he has disrupted just as many plays as he’s been personally involved in.
As good as Adams has been, though, DE Carl Lawson has arguably been better. Lawson has 12.5 tackles for loss and 9 sacks and an otherworldly 23 QB hurries. Given the man he’ll be working against, Cam Robinson, might have a bum wing, Alabama fans may end up watching that matchup with their hands over their eyes. Marlon Davidson is a solid compatriot at the other end position. The depth situation is a bit strange here; Auburn has plenty of depth up the middle, where Maurice Swain, Derrick Brown, Devaroe Lawrence and Andrew Williams can play either in or out, but with Byron Cowart requiring surgery for emergency appendicitis, only Jeff Holland remains an option at the pure defensive end slots, at least among those players having copious experience. Walk-on Tyler Carter is really the only other guy with previous experience this year.
Alabama has its own depth issues; the Crimson Tide will use only four or five players in this game unless it gets out of hand, or there’s an injury. Da’Ron Payne will start in the middle, flanked by Dalvin Tomlinson and Jonathan Allen. Da’Shawn Hand has been the primary reserve, but Joshua Frazier will also see some snaps inside in relief of Payne. Dakota Ball and Raekwon Davis are also available, although Ball’s role has shrunk as the season has progressed and Davis isn’t ready yet.
This category is hard to call, even given Alabama’s dominance this year up front. Because whereas Alabama’s defensive line is the beneficiary of an outstanding linebacker corps and a stellar defensive backfield, Auburn’s defensive line has been mostly flying alone. In fact, if Cowart was available for this game, Auburn would get the edge here due to the depth advantage. But with Cowart out, it’s a slim edge to Alabama, one that turns immediately if there is even a single, minor injury to anyone in the Tide’s A-group. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
When Alabama’s superb outside linebacker duo of Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson are added to the thumpers in the middle, Reuben Foster and Shaun Dion Hamilton, there are few teams that can match up. And that’s before Alabama’s impressive depth – Anfernee Jennings, Terrell Hall, Rashaan Evans, Christian Miller – are added to the mix. Alabama’s third team has more talent than several starting units in the SEC. Auburn’s group is playing better in 2016 than in past years, but there’s still a lack of playmaking ability here relative to what Alabama brings to the table.
The three starters – Darrell Williams and Tre Williams on the outside, Deshaun Davis inside – have combined for just 1 sack. They’ve forced 2 fumbles, recovered none, and have no interceptions to report. Overall, however, they are decently stout against the run and don’t get embarrassed in one-on-one matchups. T.J. Neal and Montavious Atkinson are the key names off the bench. Auburn coaches should be commended for making this group better, but Alabama is in a much stronger position. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The potential loss of cornerback Josh Holsey, Auburn’s best defender, is a killer for the Tigers. Holsey led the team with 3 interceptions and has been a stabilizing presence. Without him, redshirt freshman Javaris Davis would be pressed into starting. Carlton Davis and Marshall Taylor would be the second and third corners, respectively, while the safety group of Stephen Roberts, Tray Matthews and nickel safety Johnathan Ford round out the main complement.
There is certainly talent here; Carlton Davis is tied with Holsey with 10 pass breakups, while Ford has turned into a tough customer against the run. Productivity out of Matthews and Roberts hasn’t been quite what Auburn was looking for, but as a whole, the safety trio has been acceptable. Javaris Davis has a bright future ahead of him and has been a key component when the Tigers are in dime; the loss of Holsey most readily affects the situation at dime rather than primary corner. The real issue across the board is consistency, an issue that has been affecting Auburn ever since Gene Chizik took over as head coach what seems like a million years ago.
Alabama counters with Marlon Humphrey and Anthony Averett at corner and Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison at safety. Tony Brown will be on the field for most of the night at Star safety, while Laurence Jones handles dime duty. Harrison will be the key here, as he is unbeatable against the run but has struggled a bit in one-on-one coverage. Auburn is getting better, but Alabama is still comfortably ahead here. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Placekicker Daniel Carlson is probably the best in the country. He’s missed just one kick from inside 50 yards and is 3-for-5 from outside 50. If he’s on the field with a chance to win at the end, Alabama should probably hope for a meteor strike. The Tigers have been only OK in the punting department, though, ranking 40th in net punting with starter Kevin Phillips having an acceptable, but unremarkable year. Auburn has been poor in the return game, but covers kicks well.
Alabama has the best punter in the sport right now, Ray Guy Award snub notwithstanding. J.K. Scott weaponizes fourth down for Alabama, and Bama’s punt coverage unit is much better than its ranking thanks to Scott often booming the ball 60-plus yards and outkicking the coverage team. Alabama is awful on kickoff returns but can change the game on punt returns. Even though Eddie Jackson has been lost for the year, his replacement, Trayvon Diggs, has been a step away on a couple of occasions.
The real issue for Alabama is the kicking game, especially given that Adam Griffith – who looked to have gotten back on track against Mississippi State – appeared to hurt himself against Chattanooga. If he can’t go, Ole Miss transfer Andy Pappanastos is a reliable short kicker, but Alabama’s long field goal game (along with kickoff duties, which Griffith had mastered) will fall to Scott, or simply not happen. This category turns not on strengths, but on weaknesses, and Auburn’s weakness (Phillips) is by far less worrisome than Alabama’s (Griffith’s health). Advantage: Auburn
OVERALL
Alabama leads in seven categories, Auburn in one, but both lines of scrimmage are virtual toss-ups and could easily have gone to the Tigers. In the OL-DL matchups, both teams’ defensive lines easily win against the other’s offensive line.
With this kind of result, in any normal circumstance, Alabama’s 18-point betting spread would look accurate. But these circumstances are not normal.
Alabama has only had easy games against Auburn in recent years when Auburn had clearly quit on its season. This Tiger team has not done that. The opportunity is there, thanks to Georgia’s upset that knocked Auburn out of SEC West contention, and the Alabama A&M result is basically irrelevant to a discussion of that opportunity. Alabama A&M may have been the worst FCS program any SEC team played this year.
Without an accurate gauge on Auburn’s mindset this week, one has to assume the Tigers will show up for the game the same way they’ve shown up for most games in this series – believing completely in their ability to win the game, if not expecting it. The fact Auburn has been the closest thing to Kryptonite that Nick Saban has dealt with since coming to Alabama doesn’t lead to a bunch of warm fuzzies, either.
It all comes down to how Alabama manages Auburn’s defensive line. If the Tigers live in Alabama’s backfield Saturday night, they’ll be able to affect Jalen Hurts, who despite all his positives has displayed one fatal flaw in his game: ball security. If Auburn can make him uncomfortable, and can take away the time he needs to make plays in the passing game, Alabama simply isn’t physical enough up front to put this game in smashmouth mode and win it that way.
Alabama should be thankful for Auburn’s quarterback issues, both health-related and otherwise, because if this game had two dynamic offenses butting heads, it could result in an upset pick. A low-scoring, pseudo-repeat of Alabama’s game against LSU earlier this year looks like the Tide’s destiny here.
Alabama 21
Auburn 13
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