DEFENSE
Like many teams looking to play defense primarily against spread opponents, Chattanooga will utilize a 4-2-5 base that occasionally works with a three-man front in dime situations. UTC ranks 5th in FCS in total defense, 1st in raw pass defense, 15th in pass efficiency defense, 8th in scoring defense and 38th in rushing defense. Usually those rankings make the Mocs the best defense on the field, but this week, they’ll match up against the closest thing to NFL talent most of the Mocs will ever see. Alabama ranks 2nd in total defense, 1st in rushing defense, 2nd in scoring defense, 9th in pass efficiency defense and 18th in raw pass defense in FBS out of its patented 3-4 over/under scheme.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Three seniors and a junior make this an experienced for the Mocs. The issue here, as expected, is primarily size. About 270 pounds is the heaviest any Mocs starter goes. But UTC is efficient, racking up 26 sacks on the year, good for 22nd in FCS. Vantrel McMillan is probably the big name to watch here, as he has run up 11 tackles for loss, 5 sacks and 8 QB hurries coming mostly off the edge. He is the one player with sufficient combo size to slide inside. Taylor Reynolds will start at the other end slot, but hasn’t been as productive. Keionta Davis and Tennessee transfer Justin King are productive tackles, and Isaiah Mack has been exceptionally effective as the top reserve.
The real issue is depth. Outside of Mack, there really isn’t much. Derek Mahaffey offers 300-plus pound size off the bench, but he seems to be just taking up space. Joshua Phillips, who looks more like a basketball player at 6’8” than a football player, is the top reserve end, but he has done very little. D.J. Prather is also available.
Alabama doesn’t have the greatest depth in the world, but compared to UTC, the depth chart looks stacked. Da’Ron Payne will start at nose, with Dalvin Tomlinson and Jonathan Allen at the end positions. Da’Shawn Hand and Joshua Frazier figure to get a lot of work at end and tackle, respectively, and fans should see quite a bit of Dakota Ball and Raekwon Davis as well. Jamar King and O.J. Smith could also get work in this game depending on the margin of score. Alabama could have some trouble with this group if it blows off preparation, but the Tide should be able to eat through the Mocs’ lack of depth in short order. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
Dale Warren and Nakevion Leslie are the Mocs’ starters, and they’re good ones. They rank 1-2 on the team’s tackle chart for the year, and Warren in particular can do some damage behind the line of scrimmage, owing to his instincts. The two have combined for 18.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 8 broken-up passes and 6 QB hurries, production that a lot of FBS 4-2-5 teams would love to have. Size isn’t a huge issue – both players top the 225-pound mark – but lateral quickness relative to Alabama’s speed figures to be a stumbling point. Cody Bennett and freshmen Kerrington Wilson are the top reserves, but they rarely play outside of special teams. If either Warren or Leslie gets hurt, UTC is in trouble here.
Alabama counters with Reuben Foster and Shaun Dion Hamilton inside, with Tim Williams, Ryan Anderson, Christian Miller, Anfernee Jennings and Terrell Hall rotating outside. Rashaan Evans figures to play all over the place, while Mack Wilson and Keith Holcombe should both get work at ILB. Jamey Mosley could also play outside in this game. Foster was limping a bit after the Mississippi State win and may not play much this week, but Alabama should be in fine shape regardless. Warren and Leslie are quality players but UTC just doesn’t have enough behind them. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The Mocs have been dominating in the back of the defense all year. Lucas Webb, a Tuscaloosa native, along with Cedric Nettles, C.J. Fritz and Montrell Pardue are the primary players here, with Trevor Wright the fifth defensive back. If there’s a weak spot here, it’s probably Wright, who hasn’t been as productive (at least in run support) as his cohorts. K.J. Roper will be the dime safety. One standout statistic is the Mocs have struggled in blitz situations from the secondary, to the point that it’s not a big part of the defensive scheme.
Alabama might not have to account for much pressure from this group. For that matter, the entire secondary has combined for only 4.5 stops behind the line. The Mocs also have just 5 interceptions total on the year, and one of those came from the linebacker group. Roper and Wright together have 3 of the other 4, meaning the four traditional starting positions in the secondary have combined for a single pick. To do what the Mocs have done in regards to limiting both passing yards and chunk plays is somewhat astounding given the inability to flip the game through turnovers.
Alabama will start Anthony Averett and Marlon Humphrey at corner, with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison drawing the starting safety assignments. Alabama will be in nickel set pretty much the entire afternoon, so expect Tony Brown and Laurence Jones to get a lot of work. Averett’s performance against Mississippi State has teams now guessing who to pick on, and although Humphrey has had somewhat of a tough year, it’s just a matter of time before his talent rises to the top. Deionte Thompson, Aaron Robinson and Shyheim Carter figure to get work this week as well, along with Jared Mayden. Reserve corner Levi Wallace was probably Alabama’s most serious injury coming off the MSU win, but there has been no indication he’s out for this game. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
On the punting side of the ledger, the Mocs have been as good as any FBS team. Punter Colin Brewer is averaging 43.9 yards per kick, and the Mocs rank 10th in FCS in net punting. Punt returns are a respectable 47th, while kickoff returns are even better (21st) and punt return defense comes in at 26th. And then you get to the kicking situation. Placekicker Henrique Ribeiro is 7-for-9 on field goals, which includes a make from 52 yards, but also a miss from 34. Kickoff return defense is a woeful 93rd of 122 teams in FCS. Alabama wins the punting competition hands down thanks to the cannon-legged J.K. Scott, while placekicker Adam Griffith is comparable to Ribeiro. Alabama holds a big edge in athleticism on coverage teams. With both teams having reliability issues at kicker, take Scott’s edge at punter along with the perceived difference in coverage ability. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
It’s another straight eight for Alabama, and the Tide holds advantages in both OL-DL matchups, but it’s not as big an advantage in regards to the Tide OL-Mocs DL matchup as one would expect from an FCS matchup. Because of injury concerns, running back is closer than expected and the special teams category is close to a tossup.
What this means is the Mocs could probably give a couple of SEC teams a good game, but Alabama isn’t one of those teams. If Alabama has trouble here, it will be because the Crimson Tide simply failed to show up.
That’s not a knock on UTC, but this is a paycheck game for the No. 1 team in the country and there is no justification for the final margin of this game being within five scores. These games are scheduled for two reasons: Rest starters and give the backups a chance to see the field in front of their parents. Period.
Still, Alabama has enough inexperience in key positions that Chattanooga could make things uncomfortable for awhile, especially given kickoff will be late, in cooler weather and with rain in the forecast. Bryant-Denny Stadium will be dead as the graveyard across Bryant Drive.
Alabama led Mississippi State 30-0 at halftime last week. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a closer score this week – but Alabama should pull away in the second half and play lots of reserves while doing so.
Alabama 45
Chattanooga 7
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