This week in the SEC: Title plans keep getting wrecked by road rage

By Chris DePew
TideFans.com staff
Feb. 9, 2016

Way back in the stone ages, when watching Southeastern Conference basketball mostly meant channel surfing to find the Jefferson-Pilot syndication package, the late Joe Dean Sr. had a theory on how to read the SEC standings in light of the difficulty of winning on the road.

Dean’s formula was elegant in its simplicity. For every conference road win, award your team a point. Subtract one point for each home loss, and ignore home wins and road defeats. If you wanted to win the SEC, your team needed to be at least around plus-five most seasons.

One wonders if it will be necessary to count that high in 2016. Road teams have been road kill with alarming consistency this year, with even many of the best teams losing in some unlikely places. South Carolina is 20-3 but lost head-scratchers at Alabama and Tennessee. Texas A&M lost its grip on first place thanks in part to losses at Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Kentucky took a stunning loss at Auburn and is a week removed from blowing a 21-point lead at UT.

Road teams are 18-50 in SEC games, with only two victories against teams with a winning league record. South Carolina edged Texas A&M 81-78 on Saturday and the Aggies rocked Georgia 79-45 on January 16. The picture isn’t much brighter when adding in non-conference games. Only two teams have winning records in true road games, and six are stuck on a single road victory. (Missouri is winless away from home, but the Tigers don’t win much anywhere these days.)

For the record, LSU is on top in the real-life standings but tied with USC under Dean’s magic math as well. Both teams have three road wins and no home losses so far. And wouldn’t you know it …

Game of the week: LSU (15-8, 8-2 SEC) at South Carolina (20-3, 7-3), 6 p.m. Central Wednesday, ESPN2. With a month to go before the conference tournament, four teams feel good about their chances of earning a NCAA bid, but the SEC leaders aren’t among them. The Tigers can fix that this week by knocking off two of the three teams hot on their heels in the standings. And LSU has been on the rise even before last week’s get-well combo of wins against Auburn and Mississippi State, winning seven of its last 10 games. The Tigers are second in the league in scoring, first in field goal percentage and third in assists. And while 3-point shooting has been a season-long struggle, LSU went 10-for-22 behind the arc Saturday. This is a different – and better – team than the one that spent November and December compiling bad losses, and this week is the time to prove it.

The Gamecocks rocketed to a gaudy record but a soft schedule and losses in its last three road games, including last Tuesday’s 69-56 thumping at Georgia, led to whispers that South Carolina was vulnerable to a late swoon and missing the big dance for a 12th consecutive season. But USC silenced all doubts with an 81-78 upset at Texas A&M. Michael Carrera bounced back from a bad game in Athens by going 6-for-6 from the floor, including five 3-pointers, to finish with 20 points, his fourth 20-plus game in five outings.

Also this week:
Tuesday
Auburn at Tennessee, 6 p.m., SEC Network
Arkansas at Mississippi State, 8 p.m., SEC Network
Georgia at No. 22 Kentucky, 8 p.m., ESPN
Ole Miss at Florida, 8 p.m., ESPNU

Wednesday
No. 15 Texas A&M at Alabama, 6 p.m., SEC Network
Missouri at Vanderbilt, 8 p.m., SEC Network

Saturday
No. 22 Kentucky at South Carolina, 11 a.m., ESPN
No. 15 Texas A&M at LSU, noon, CBS
Arkansas at Ole Miss, 1 p.m., ESPNU
Tennessee at Missouri, 2 p.m., SEC Network
Alabama at Florida, 4:30 p.m., SEC Network
Vanderbilt at Auburn, 5 p.m., ESPN2
Georgia at Mississippi State, 7 p.m., SEC Network

Power poll:

1. South Carolina – The Gamecocks have hit the 20-win plateau for just the 16th time in school history, and the program record pf 25 victories is well within reach. USC plays five of its final eight games at home and also has a user-friendly trip to Missouri.
2. Texas A&M – The Aggies shot to the top of the standings with airtight defense, but suddenly seem to have sprung a leak along the perimeter. Vandy went 13-for-29 from 3-point range to spring a 77-60 upset last Thursday. Likewise, USC went 12-for-21 in Saturday’s upset at Reed Arena.
3. LSU – Antonio Blakeney reminded the world Saturday that Tigers don’t have just a one-man freshman class, coming off the bench to score 31 points as LSU turned back State, 88-77. Fellow newbie Ben Simmons had to content himself with being SEC freshman of the week again, averaging 18.5 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in wins over Auburn and MSU.
4. Kentucky – A forgotten freshman helped UK bounce back with a big win over Florida. Seven-footer Isaac Humphries has been buried on the bench, but with Alex Poythress out after coming up sore in warmups, Humphries got 15 minutes of action, the most he’s seen in weeks. He scratched out four points, six rebounds and two blocked shots as the Cats clobbered the Gators, 80-61.
5. Florida – The Gators started three guards at Kentucky and got three combined field goals (on 21 shots) for their trouble. After scoring 19 points in the first half of its last road game, a loss at Vandy, Florida again stumbled out of the starting blocks, as UK opened the game with a 24-5 run.
6. Georgia – After a rough January, the Bulldogs got their bite back on defense last week, limiting South Carolina to 56 points (and 31% field goal shooting) and Auburn to 55 points (25.9%) in a pair of home wins. A trip to Kentucky gives UGA a chance to show it belongs in the bubble conversation.
7. Vanderbilt – Oh Vandy. Just when Commodores fans had reason for hope after a stirring upset of Texas A&M, they returned to their sloppy, foul-happy ways at Ole Miss, sending the Rebels to the line 38 times and turning an 11-point lead into an ugly 85-78 loss, Vanderbilt’s 10th of the season.
8. Arkansas – The Hogs could be primed for a big finish in league play. There are no guarantees away from home, but Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama is as forgiving a road slate as anyone can ask for in the SEC. The Razorbacks get Auburn and Mizzou at Bud Walton Arena and close the home schedule against LSU and South Carolina.
9. Ole Miss – The Rebels got outplayed in the second half at Missouri, and trailed by four points with just over a minute left before pulling out a 76-73 win. Believe it or not, that win gives Ole Miss the best road record (5-4) of any SEC team.
10. Tennessee – The Vols were an epic 30-for-34 at the foul line in last Tuesday’s upset of Kentucky. At Arkansas, they dipped to an anemic 11-for-17 showing from the stripe in an 85-67 blowout. UT has lost four games by 12 or more points since mid-January.
11. Alabama – Retin Obasohan was named SEC player of the week for the second time after averaging 20.5 points and five assists in wins against State and Mizzou. He is the first Crimson Tide player to win the award twice in a season since Kennedy Winston in 2004-05.
12. Mississippi State – Point guard I.J. Ready wasn’t, well, ready against LSU, missing Saturday’s game with a back injury. Before that he was dealing with a hurt foot that limited him against Alabama. The sophomore averages 10.1 points and 4.3 assists per game for the Bulldogs, and his status for the Arkansas game is up in the air.
13. Auburn – It had to have taken a lot for Bruce Pearl to suspend point guard Kareem Canty indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team. His 18.3 points and 5.3 assists per game were keeping the already-shaky Tigers glued together, and Auburn predictably collapsed on offense without him at Georgia. If the junior transfer from Marshall is out for a while, Auburn seems like a lock for the SEC tournament play-in game.
14. Missouri – The Tigers may be undersized and lack frontcourt depth, but they make up for it by being a bad 3-point shooting team. Mizzou was 3-for-16 from behind the arc at Alabama and is barely shooting above 30 percent from deep this season.

Follow Chris DePew on Twitter @TideFansChris