By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
May 9, 2015
Alabama will have to replace six drafted players heading into the 2015 regular season.
For the 2016 season? Try 42.
Alabama has 42 draft-eligible players in the two-deep heading into 2015. While all certainly won’t be drafted, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Alabama double its draft total from this season, and then there are certain to be a handful of undrafted free agents that Alabama must also replace. What this means is twofold: Alabama ought to consider the 2015 season a championship push season, and the 2016 season could end up being tough sledding, with a lot of young players forced into key positions before they’re ready.
Here’s a look at every draft-eligible Alabama player on the 2015 two-deep, and a brief projection at their draft chances for the 2016 NFL Draft. In all, TideFans.com is projecting a possible 15 draft picks in 2016, possibly 16 picks depending on what the quarterback situation looks like at the start of fall camp.
Wide receiver
Eligible: Robert Foster (RSo.), ArDarius Stewart (RSo.), Chris Black (Jr.), Parker Barrineau (Sr.)
Analysis: Neither Black nor Barrineau are expected to be drafted, although Black could get there with a breakout season in the return game. If Black doesn’t have a strong year on special teams – and by strong, we mean off-the-charts, given that he’s an unknown in the public eye at the moment – then his limited height and unproven ability to go stretch a defense deep will probably keep him in Tuscaloosa another year. That leaves Foster and Stewart, a pair of redshirt sophomores who have shown breakout potential. Foster’s height and top-end speed have some comparing him to Amari Cooper, while Stewart is seen as a hybrid deep threat/possession receiver with super body-positioning skills. Stewart has a better chance than Black to elevate his stock, but all eyes will be on Foster because of his NFL-prototype body.
Prediction: If Foster hits the 1,000-yard mark or even close to it, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him declare. Stewart could declare with a strong season, but it’s more likely that he and Black return to Tuscaloosa.
Tight end/H-back
Eligible: O.J. Howard (Jr.), Ty Flournoy-Smith (Sr.), Dakota Ball (Jr.), Michael Nysewander (Sr.)
Analysis: Howard is really the one to watch here, as some draft analysts even have him going in the first round despite a resume that, to be kind, is spotty. Flournoy-Smith out-performed Howard in the spring, but he lacks the prototypical size to play tight end in the NFL. Dakota Ball made great strides forward in the spring, but is still regarded as a blocking specialist until he proves he can catch the ball consistently in games. Nysewander is almost exclusively a fullback and lacks the athleticism that Jalston Fowler displayed a year ago, but fullback is a funny position to project at the NFL level and some teams will overlook athleticism if the technique is there.
Prediction: Howard, with a strong season, is likely to declare. The question is how many balls can Alabama divide between him, Foster, Stewart and Black. Unless Alabama tilts even more heavily toward a passing offense than it did last year – and there were criticisms about the 2015 team that it had become too finesse-oriented – there may not be enough work here for Howard to shine. Either way, Howard must improve his blocking. It’s a 50/50 shot for him. The rest are longshots.
Offensive line
Eligible: T/G Dominick Jackson (Sr.), T Brandon Greene (Jr.), G/C Bradley Bozeman (RSo.), C Ryan Kelly (Sr.), G Alphonse Taylor (Jr.), T Korren Kirven (Jr.)
Analysis: Ryan Kelly will almost certainly be drafted. Even if his lack of size proves too much to overlook, he’ll be a priority free agent. Greene, Taylor and Kirven aren’t likely to start, so cross them off the list for now. That leaves Jackson and Bozeman, the latter not expected to declare. Jackson played both guard and tackle for Alabama last year but would likely project as a guard at the next level.
Prediction: Kelly looks like a mid-rounder due to size concerns. Jackson needs to stay healthy to showcase his talents. If he plays to potential, he could get into the second day of the draft.
Quarterback
Eligible: Jake Coker (Sr.), Alec Morris (Jr.), Cooper Bateman (RSo.)
Analysis: We list three names only because no one knows at the moment who the No. 2 guy is. It’s safe to say that neither Alec Morris nor Cooper Bateman have much of a chance to come out early, as neither guy pulled away from the pack in the spring, and both might actually be behind redshirt freshman David Cornwell on the depth chart right now. That leaves Jake Coker as the only legitimate name, and he might not even be the starter in the fall. Alabama is in the mix to land Ohio State transfer Braxton Miller – and if Miller does come to Alabama and wins the job in the fall, he would probably be of prime interest to most NFL teams next April. Coker has NFL size and an NFL arm, but he also showed problems making quick decisions in the spring, and that will have to change before any NFL team spends a draft pick on him.
Prediction: Judging solely from mostly mop-up work in 2014 and his 2015 spring performances, Jake Coker won’t be drafted. The potential is there for a change in forecast, however. If Alabama lands Miller and Miller’s shoulder proves healthy, he would seem a mid-to-upper-round possibility.
Running back
Eligible: Derrick Henry (Jr.), Kenyan Drake (Sr.)
Analysis: Both players will play at the next level. Henry, though, might not go as high as some think due to the lack of a quick first step. Henry is better once he’s underway, which plays well in more conservative NFL offenses and not in single-back, shotgun spread versions. Translation: Fit will be of primo importance to Henry. Drake’s future is not so tied down to style, as his ability to return kicks and run routes at wide receiver make him more versatile than Henry. The big question marks for Drake are ball security and health. Drake appears to have corrected his maturity issues that hamstrung him early in his Alabama career.
Prediction: Both will be drafted. Henry should go in the second or third round, while Drake could go anywhere from the second to the fifth.
Defensive line
Eligible: Jonathan Allen (Jr.), Dalvin Tomlinson (Jr.), A’Shawn Robinson (Jr.), Darren Lake (Sr.), Jarran Reed (Sr.), D.J. Pettway (Sr.)
Analysis: Here’s where Alabama could take a massive hit following the 2015 season. A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed both look like Round 1-3 picks, with Robinson possibly a top-10 pick in the draft. Dalvin Tomlinson is the most likely of the juniors to return in 2016 for his final year. D.J. Pettway needs to return to his freshman-year form. Darren Lake might not look draftable to many people at this point, but it’s worth noting that Brandon Ivory signed with the Houston Texans as a priority free agent despite getting almost no work his senior year. True noseguards might not have much of a place anymore at the college level, but the NFL still needs them. The wild card is Jonathan Allen, who is considering the jump and probably will go if he records a strong season. At the moment, his ceiling is anywhere from the second to sixth rounds, depending on his performance in 2015.
Prediction: Look for Robinson and Allen to both declare, joining Pettway, Reed and Lake on the bus out of Tuscaloosa at year’s end. Tomlinson will probably be back in 2016 to start along with Josh Frazier and Da’Shawn Hand. Robinson, Allen and Reed should all hear their name called on draft day, with Pettway a good shot to also be taken.
Linebackers
Eligible: Ryan Anderson (Jr.), Tim Williams (Jr.), Reuben Foster (Jr.), Reggie Ragland (Sr.), Dillon Lee (Sr.), Denzel Devall (Sr.), Walker Jones (RSo.)
Analysis: A lot could happen here, but the only two certainties seem to be that Reggie Ragland will be drafted in 2016 and Walker Jones won’t be. Jones had a good spring, but he’ll compete for backup time with Shaun Dion Hamilton and some freshmen in the fall. Ragland could have entered the draft this year and would likely have been an upper-mid-round pick had he done so, meaning that a strong 2015 could vault him into the bottom of the first round. The rest is up in the air. Dillon Lee would seem to need to make a big impression to get drafted, and especially to stay off the trainer’s table. Devall’s future looks to be more at defensive end in a 4-3, which means his ceiling is probably around that of where Xzavier Dickson was drafted in 2015 (late seventh). For Ryan Anderson, Tim Williams and Reuben Foster, the upcoming season is crucial, as none of them are really on draft radar at the moment. Foster has the best chance, given his size, hitting ability and ability to play on special teams. At the pro level, Williams is a situational rusher, while Anderson would likely have to move down to defensive end, putting him in the same boat as Devall.
Prediction: Foster is the only potential early entrant from this group, unless either Williams or Anderson catches fire. Ragland will be drafted, barring a horrific injury or some other strange occurrence, while Devall could get taken in the later rounds.
Defensive back
Eligible: Cyrus Jones (Sr.), Geno Smith (Sr.), Jabriel Washington (Sr.), Maurice Smith (Jr.), Anthony Averett (RSo.), Eddie Jackson (Jr.), Bradley Sylve (Sr.)
Analysis: Multiple draft analysts have Eddie Jackson declaring for the draft and being taken in the top rounds, which proves measurables and potential trump just about everything else in the NFL. Jackson had a solid freshman season, then regressed in 2014, largely the result of a quick comeback from ACL surgery. Jackson moved to safety in the spring and will apparently take over at strong safety for Landon Collins. There are few comparisons between the two players, however, as Collins was seen as an undersized linebacker with decent coverage skills, while Jackson’s strength is in coverage, with his run-support skills being average for a safety. Of the seniors, Cyrus Jones is virtually guaranteed to be drafted, the only question being how high. Geno Smith needs to keep his nose clean off the field and put together a strong season on it to justify a draft pick. Maurice Smith has the measurables but needs to be more consistent. Sylve’s speed could get him a look, but only if he takes the second starting CB job from Tony Brown. Washington needs to get more field time and not be just a package safety. Anthony Averett won’t get enough snaps unless injuries happen.
Prediction: We think the scouts are a bit too optimistic about Jackson at the moment, but assuming they’re even close to correct, Jackson will declare. Jones will be drafted, and we think Geno Smith will be as well, provided he plays in 2015 the way he did in the spring.
Special teams
Eligible: PK Adam Griffith (Jr.), LS Cole Mazza (Jr.), P Adrian Lamothe (Jr.)
Analysis: Neither position sees a lot of early draft entrants, but it bears mentioning that a punter did go early in 2015. Griffith would need to be flawless in 2015 to justify the jump, while Mazza needs to bounce back a bit from a 2014 season that was bumpy at times. Lamothe will only play if something happens to J.K. Scott.
Prediction: All three return for their senior seasons.