By Jess Nicholas, TideFans.com Editor-In-Chief
Nov. 25, 2013
Last week’s record: 6-2 (75.0%)
Season record: 87-16 (84.5%)
The Predictions Dept. heads into the final week of the season with a decent record, but it could have been a tick better had we just known how horrible Florida really is. The game of the week, profiled in our extended preview, is certainly Alabama-Auburn, but there are several other important games, headlined by the game that will determine the SEC East representative to Atlanta, the Missouri-Texas A&M game. Several other SEC teams have tough tests that will determine eventual bowl placement.
FLORIDA STATE at FLORIDA
They don’t come much screwier than this. In one corner are the inept Gators, 4-7 on the season and assured of sitting home for the postseason. In the other corner, a Florida State team with an embattled quarterback – one that might not be available for this game depending on how certain legal proceedings shake out this week. Then, if Jameis Winston does in fact play in this game, the Seminoles have to gauge whether it’s worth exposing him to hits from an SEC defense in order to bolster his Heisman Trophy resume. The game is in Gainesville, which is not good news for FSU. While the Seminoles are the only team here with something to play for, never count out an SEC team in a rivalry game, no matter the record. This one could end up closer than expected, particularly if Florida’s players believe they might have to win to save head coach Will Muschamp’s job.
Florida State 31
Florida 17
ALABAMA at AUBURN
See our extended preview!
GEORGIA at GEORGIA TECH
Both teams are 7-4, and the Bulldogs just lost their starting quarterback. But Georgia Tech’s four losses – against, arguably, the only four teams on its schedule worth a sniff – were rarely close. Aside from a 7-point loss to Virginia Tech, the other three losses came by margins of 15, 18 and 24 points. The Yellow Jackets’ best win ends up being a 38-14 victory over Duke in Week 2, which came before the Blue Devils developed into a good team, not to mention the fact that Duke’s defense is likely the slowest of any of Tech’s Division-IA opponents this year. Georgia’s biggest problem is defensive discipline. It’s what cost the Bulldogs the Auburn game, and facing a triple-option team while displaying poor gap discipline on defense is a sure-fire way to run Thanksgiving weekend. Fortunately for Georgia, the QB depth chart is pretty full, and the Dawgs’ speed on defense will make up for a lot. Still, this is basically a toss-up.
Georgia 30
Georgia Tech 27
TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY
This is a matchup of one bad team and … one very bad team. Mark Stoops could do a lot to bolster his standing among the Wildcat fans with a win over his school’s biggest rival, but Kentucky has regressed defensively and offensively, can’t get out of the gate. Tennessee, on the other hand, has only been competitive three times this year – losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia and a win over South Carolina. Still, that’s a step up from Kentucky, which came close to South Carolina and Mississippi State but never challenged another peer team. The Wildcats’ only hope here is that the Volunteers have folded the tents completely after losing to Vanderbilt last week and thus, being eliminated from postseason competition.
Tennessee 27
Kentucky 17
TEXAS A&M at MISSOURI
Well, Tiger fans, here it is. One game to either validate a season or make it almost wholly irrelevant. If Missouri loses to the Aggies, it will finish the season tied with South Carolina atop the SEC East, and the Gamecocks have the tiebreaker. Poor special teams play is going to be the thing that ends up costing Missouri a shot at a national championship, and could also cost them the shot at playing for a conference title. On paper, the Tigers should be favored over A&M. They’re at home, they can run the ball (Texas A&M cannot stop it) and they’re 10-1. But Johnny Manziel can’t be accounted for on paper, and despite the Aggies failing to show up against LSU last week, you can bet the Aggies would love to settle some old Big 12 scores with its expansion companion. As bad as the Aggie rush defense is, the Missouri pass defense may be worse. The dream may very well come to an end.
Texas A&M 47
Missouri 45
CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina has a 9-2 record, but this isn’t the Gamecock team of recent years. South Carolina has been in tight games against lesser opponents and has lacked the killer defensive instinct of recent seasons. But Clemson still reels from a 52-14 whipping suffered at the hands of Florida State, and as long as defense is an optional premise for the Tiger coaches, Clemson will be vulnerable against Steve Spurrier and his Gamecocks. South Carolina’s destiny is in the hands of Texas A&M; whatever happens in this game means little outside of state pride. It wouldn’t be a surprise in the least to see South Carolina upset Clemson, but the Tigers might just be able to exploit the USC defense for once.
Clemson 30
South Carolina 24
WAKE FOREST at VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt needs to win this game to finish 8-4, if it wants any shot at avoiding going to a bowl game 5 miles down its own street. Someone needs to start a petition to get the Commodores out of Nashville for the holidays regardless, but Vandy could go a long way toward writing its own ticket if it can beat a 4-7 Wake Forest squad at home. The Demon Deacons have lost four straight games, but three of those losses came by margins of 3, 13 and 7 points to Miami, Syracuse and Duke, solid teams all. Still, Vanderbilt is a quicker, stronger Wake Forest in nearly every facet, and the mere possibility of playing in Atlanta or a Florida bowl game is enough of a carrot to keep the Commodores focused.
Vanderbilt 24
Wake Forest 10
ARKANSAS at LOUISIANA STATE
The Razorbacks won their first three games of the season, and now have lost eight straight. They came close to pulling off Bret Bielema’s first conference win last week, only to lose in overtime to Mississippi State. Now comes LSU, and Arkansas has no chance. This game has the potential to be one of the worst Arkansas losses in years.
LSU 59
Arkansas 7
MISSISSIPPI at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Ole Miss should win this game, let’s get that out of the way. The Rebels have more talent on offense, a better quarterback situation and a slightly more consistent defense. But the Egg Bowl is frequently one of the strangest games to pick in the SEC. Mississippi State is playing for its postseason life, and a win here would mean Dan Mullen’s team actually exceeded expectations this season. Ole Miss is coming off a tough loss to Missouri, a game that could have gone a long way towards defining the Rebel program as a contender. As it is, they’re one loss away from another 7-5 regular season. Aside from the Alabama-Auburn game, this could be the most entertaining game left on the docket, just to see how many crazy things happen.
Ole Miss 24
Mississippi St. 23