The hardest part about comparative analysis is comparing two teams for which no common baseline exists.
When Alabama faces off against Indiana in the Rose Bowl, the only commonalities the two teams have are that both teams played a game against Wisconsin this year, and Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti wouldn’t get lost if you dropped him in the middle of Tuscaloosa.
Discuss on the TideFans.com Football Board
Cignetti was famously part of Nick Saban’s original Alabama staff in 2007, staying until 2010 before taking the small-school tour on his way to eventually becoming Indiana’s head coach. We have stumped for Cignetti for years here at TideFans.com; he was a regular member of our Coaches To Watch List, with the only shortcoming being his age (64). It took Cignetti some time to get his first real opportunity, despite being the son of heralded coach Frank Cignetti Sr., and it seems as if he’s made the decision to stay with Indiana through the duration of his career. A lot of Cignetti’s mannerisms can be traced back to the same coal-country ethic that shaped Saban’s early life, and even with 2025 Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, most Alabama fans probably consider Cignetti to be the potential difference-maker in this matchup.
As for the common game against Wisconsin, Indiana won its outing 31-7 on Nov. 15, while Alabama had earlier defeated the Badgers 38-14 on Sept. 13. Spoiler alert: We’re not going to learn much from studying these two particular games.
The Hoosiers’ most notable accomplishment in 2025 was, of course, taking down Ohio State on Dec. 10 in Indianapolis at the Big Ten Championship Game, 13-10. That game, plus a couple of blowout wins over mid-level Big Ten opponents during the season, have inexperienced Hoosier fans crowing about the possibility of embarrassing Alabama in the Rose Bowl. As the recently retired – and one-time Indiana head coach – Lee Corso would say … not so fast.
Projected Depth Alabama Chart vs Indiana
OFFENSE
The attention went to Mendoza at quarterback, but this is a running team. Indiana ranked 8th nationally in total offense this year off the strength of a 10th-ranked rushing attack. Passing offense ranked 43rd, but led the nation in pass efficiency, and scoring offense came in 3rd. Mike Shanahan (no relation to the well-known NFL coach) is the young offensive coordinator here and has tailored his offenses to fit the strengths of the current-year teams dating back several seasons, as he has moved up the ranks with Cignetti. The offensive system is called a spread, but it’s basically a multiple pro-style alignment. Alabama comes in ranked 74th in the country in total offense and just 118th in rushing offense, but 22nd in passing offense out of its Air Raid derivative. Like Indiana, Alabama has put a premium on passing efficiency (26th).
QUARTERBACKS
Alabama’s Ty Simpson, at one time, was considered the 2025 Heisman favorite. After an injury against Missouri in the middle of the season that turned into something of the nagging variety, Simpson fell down the board and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza ultimately replaced him at the top of the list. What we’re talking about here is that both teams have very good quarterbacks, to the point that there isn’t as much space between them as Indiana fans would like to believe. Fernando Mendoza’s brother Alberto is the Indiana backup. He has about as much of a resume as either Austin Mack or Keelon Russell do for Alabama, doing very well for himself in limited opportunities.
For the first time this year, there isn’t really a huge edge for Alabama in regard to depth at this spot, and for that matter, Alabama has been able to hold category leads at quarterback in most of its matchups even as the offense as a whole went through some rough spots. Mendoza has better rushing statistics than Simpson but they’re about the same level of athlete; Mendoza has fewer negative plays in the pocket thanks to better sack protection from his OL. They’re about equal as throwers, and Simpson has roughly 500 more yards passing on the year, 1 fewer interception despite roughly 140 more pass attempts (against better secondaries, at that), but fewer touchdowns than does Mendoza.
This one is really very close, and the Simpson we saw two weeks ago against Oklahoma far more closely resembled the Simpson of the beginning of the year. It’s also arguable that Simpson has performed better against the tougher teams on Alabama’s schedule than Mendoza has against Indiana’s toughest opponents. Flip a coin here, really. We’re taking Simpson based on the full body of work and slightly better depth. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
This is about as close to a blowout as you’ll ever see. Indiana’s top two running backs, Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, have combined for 1,717 yards and 13 touchdowns. And then you have a third-team back, Khobie Martin, who pitches in 452 yards and 6 more touchdowns. Average per-carry figures for the group are in the upper 5.x-yard range, pushing to 6.0 per carry. All three Indiana backs are about equal in size to Alabama’s Jamarion Miller; this isn’t a case of scatbacks running amok against overmatched opponents. Alabama will probably start Daniel Hill for this game, although Miller is available and didn’t look quite as far behind, physically, against the Sooners as he did when coming back from two earlier injuries. Still, this is a rout. Miller and Hill together don’t have as many yards as Indiana’s top backup Kaelon Black. Kevin Riley, the third-team back, is probably still out with a jaw injury. Alabama used Dre’lyn Washington for one snap against Oklahoma but it wouldn’t surprise us to see Alabama rely completely on Hill and Miller. This is what Alabama’s defense has to stop. Advantage: Indiana
WIDE RECEIVERS
As disparate as the running backs’ stats are, the wide receivers are right on top of each other. Top receiver for each side – Omar Cooper Jr. (804), Germie Bernard (802). Top backup – Elijah Sarratt (687), Ryan Williams (636). Third receiver – E.J. Williams (416), Isaiah Horton (495). Bench guy who always makes an impact – Charlie Becker (515), Lotzeir Brooks (441). The touchdown count is move heavily concentrated at the top for Indiana, with Cooper (11) and Sarratt (12) getting most of the action. Both teams bring a good tight end, Riley Nowakowski (25 catches, 316 yards, 12.6 avg., 2 TD) for Indiana and Josh Cuevas (33 catches, 376 yards, 11.4 avg., 4 TD) for Alabama. The one place Indiana holds a distinct edge is in height and size.
Alabama seems to be trending more toward taller receivers in recent recruiting classes and transfer portal takes (Lotzeir Brooks notwithstanding), but Indiana is already there. All three of the starters, plus Becker are all 6’0” or taller, and the shortest of the group – Cooper, at 6’0” – is a thick-bodied receiver who can leverage his strength. Williams is a Phenix City prospect by way of the transfer portal from Clemson, but the rest are homegrown with the exception of reserve Jonathan Brady, who came with Mendoza from California. Alabama has the edge at tight end; Cuevas is one of the best in the business, and Indiana’s backup, Tennessee transfer Holden Staes, isn’t involved in the offense as much as Bama backups Danny Lewis Jr., Kaleb Edwards and Jay Lindsey.
This one probably comes down to which Ryan Williams shows up for this game. If Bama gets the Williams it got against Georgia, Alabama pulls ahead here due to speed and ability after the catch. It’s a big “if,” though. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Alabama’s line has settled in well in terms of keeping negative running plays off the board (30th in TFL allowed), but the run game is far from dynamic, and pass protection has been an issue (86th in sacks allowed). For this game, Parker Brailsford will start at center, with the guards likely to be Kam Dewberry and Wilkin Formby and the tackles Kadyn Proctor and Michael Carroll. Alabama also worked Geno VanDeMark and Jaeden Roberts into the Oklahoma game at guard, to varying effect. Indiana knows three of its starters – center Pat Coogan, a Notre Dame transfer; LT Carter Smith and RG Bray Lynch. What happens at the other two spots is a bit less certain.
Drew Evans was the left guard for the first 8 games of the year, but missed a month before returning against Ohio State. Freshman Adedamola Ajani started in his absence and is still listed atop the depth chart, but we think we’ll see both. Colorado transfer Kahlil Benson has been the starter at right tackle for most of the year, but Ohio State transfer Zen Michalski has also started a few games there. Indiana ranks 25th in sacks allowed and 15th in tackles for loss allowed. They’re a bit smaller than Alabama’s line but there’s no true “small” lineman in the bunch; all exceed 300 pounds.
We think Indiana might have a bit more trouble with Alabama’s defensive front than they have had with most opponents, but that’s a discussion for the OL-DL cross-matchup section. Comparing the two, the Hoosiers have put up better metrics against a pretty good schedule. Advantage: Indiana
DEFENSE
Both teams base from a 4-2-5 look, although Indiana has a bit more of Saban’s 3-4 over/under leanings than does the Crimson Tide. These are two excellent defenses; Indiana was 4th in total defense and Alabama 13th. Indiana is 3rd against the run, 18th against the pass and 12th in efficiency defense. Alabama ranks 30th in rush defense, 10th against the pass and 31st in efficiency defense. Both defenses are opportunistic.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Assuming DT Tim Keenan III is 100 percent for Alabama – he’s currently listed as questionable, but we don’t believe that – Alabama should be able to mix things up along the line as good as anyone. Keenan, James Smith, London Simmons, Isaia Faga, Kelby Collins and Edric Hill will rotate at tackle for Alabama, while Jordan Renaud and Keon Keeley are set to handle things at Bandit end and Yhonzae Pierre, Qua Russaw, Justin Hill and Noah Carter keep things moving at Wolf linebacker. The real story here, though, is that suddenly, DE L.T. Overton is back in the picture. Overton was medically ruled out at the end of the season, a decision believed to be permanent when it occurred, but there now appears a chance he can return for this game.
Just as Alabama may be getting Overton back, Indiana is losing its best defensive lineman, DE Steven Daley. The Kent State transfer suffered a knee injury that appears set to keep him out of the playoffs. Daley had 19.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks at the time of the injury. His backup, Michigan State transfer Andrew DePaepe, has 4 total tackles, 0.5 of them for loss. With arguably the second-best Hoosier lineman, Kellan Wyatt, also out, the question is whether those absences are enough to flip the category to Alabama. Mikhail Kamara will start at the equivalent to Alabama’s Wolf position, with Daniel Ndukwe and Andrew Turvy backing up both Kamara and DePaepe. Things are much better inside, where Tyrique Tucker, Mario Landino, Hosea Wheeler and Dominique Ratcliff will rotate. J’mari Monette is also available inside.
Indiana has been much better than Alabama at getting inside pressure from the front four, but the loss of Daley evens the scales – or even tips them to Alabama – in regard to edge pressure. Indiana is 7th in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss, while Alabama is 61st and 55th in those categories. We will still give the Hoosiers the benefit of the doubt, but like quarterback, it’s closer than Indiana fans probably want to consider. Advantage: Indiana
LINEBACKERS
Rolijah Hardy and Aiden Fisher are Indiana’s top two tacklers, and Isaiah Jones ranks 4th on the team. Like the defensive tackles that play in front of them, Indiana’s inside linebackers are aggressive, and all three can make plays in the offensive backfield. In a similar vein, Alabama’s trio – Justin Jefferson, Deontae Lawson and Nikhai Hill-Green – are a very close match, with the exception of the tackles for loss category. In a matchup that is exceptionally close in all other factors – Alabama has the edge in overall playing experience, but it’s not substantial – we have to trust what we’re seeing in regard to production. There are some legitimate points of evaluation to make here – Hardy is short for an FBS linebacker, and both Hardy and Fisher transferred to Indiana from much smaller programs – but the Hoosier staff has done a good job coaching them up. Another close one. Advantage: Indiana
DEFENSIVE BACKS
We’re going against the stats here and picking Alabama, and it should be clear as to why. The cornerback trio of Zabien Brown, Domani Jackson and Dijon Lee Jr. has a great combination of size and especially length, and Brown’s ability to turn games around in their biggest moments has to be considered. The safety group, which will feature Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb at the deep spots and Rydarrius Morgan and DaShawn Jones splitting the nickel safety spot, has become one of the best in the business. Indiana will start D’Angelo Ponds and Jamari Sharpe at corner; Sharpe has good length but Ponds, at 5’9” and just 170 pounds, may have trouble with the tall Isaiah Horton or the physical Germie Bernard. Louis Moore, who went from a little-used rotational player at Ole Miss to Indiana’s starting strong safety, leads the DBs in tackles for this team. He’ll start at strong safety, with Amare Ferrell at free safety and NC State transfer Devan Boykin at nickel safety. Size is a concern across the board, with the exception of Ferrell. But it hasn’t stopped both he and Moore for combining for a whopping 10 interceptions. Ty Simpson won’t be throwing against air by any measure, but we like the way Alabama is built on the edges better. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
We’re not sure what Indiana has in Nico Radicic, who has is 71-of-71 on PATs and has missed just one field goal – but he also doesn’t attempt many. His longest of the year was from 46 yards out and while he’s 15-of-16 overall, one of those misses came from a shorter distance. Neither team is great in the net punting department, but Indiana’s Mitch McCarthy isn’t even averaging 40 yards gross. Neither team returns kickoffs well, but Indiana has a sizable advantage in punt returns, ranking 5th nationally compared to Alabama’s 77th. Both teams are mediocre on punt return defense, but Alabama covers kicks well, whereas Indiana struggles there. We’re going to give the edge to the Hoosiers here based on the punt return category, but Alabama seems to have shored up its special teams significantly in the last month, and PK Conor Talty seems to have gotten past the yips from earlier in the season. Advantage: Indiana
OVERALL
Indiana leads in five categories, Alabama in three, but there’s not a big lead anywhere on this board other than at running back. As for the OL-DL cross-matchups, we think Indiana will enjoy a modest edge of its DL going against the Alabama OL – it would be a far more substantial edge if Steven Daley wasn’t injured – while the Hoosiers also enjoy a far slimmer edge going the other way, its OL against the Alabama DL.
It’s not often we go against the breakdown, but we are in this case. We’re not so troubled by the 3-5 Indiana advantage in unit rankings, because Alabama could easily show up better in every category other than maybe at RB; it’s the two OL-DL cross-matchups that give us pause.
This is where trying to figure out how Indiana got here becomes the big issue, and is the Big Ten that much behind the SEC in terms of conference strength. Ohio State certainly isn’t behind, and Indiana beat the Buckeyes. But Indiana also slogged through matchups with Old Dominion, Penn State and Iowa, not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents.
That sends us back to the Wisconsin game. It was arguably Mendoza’s best of the year, as he went 23-of-25 for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Hoosiers didn’t run the ball particularly well, though, but there weren’t any red flags about the performance, either. Alabama threw for 382 yards in its win over Wisconsin, didn’t run the ball particularly well, but there weren’t any red flags flying over the Tide.
We think Indiana will be somewhat unaccustomed to the amount of team speed Alabama brings to this game, and while the Curt Cignetti staff deserves massive props for getting this roster to the point it can compete on a national level, we think Alabama finds a way to extend its season against what will be a very legitimate opponent.
Alabama 27
Indiana 23
Discuss on the TideFans.com Football Board
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN