There are two schools of thought regarding how to evaluate Auburn football in 2025: Look at what Auburn was supposed to be, or what Auburn eventually became – and if you choose the former option, what does that say now that Hugh Freeze is no longer in charge?
Auburn fired Freeze after a 10-3 loss to Kentucky. At the time, Auburn’s offense was mostly non-functional. Jackson Arnold was the quarterback, and anyone who knew anything about quarterback evaluation had been waving yellow and red flags over Arnold since well before he transferred in from the Oklahoma program. Why Freeze ever felt that Arnold was the answer, we can’t say. All we know is that Auburn, in its two games under D.J. Durkin, has played two different starting quarterbacks and recorded 38 and 62 points in those games, with the 38 coming against a playoff contender, Vanderbilt.
So is Auburn a team that should be judged based on the entirety of its 5-6 record to date, or is this the 7-, 8- or even 9-win Auburn team that a lot of observers thought it was going to be? Five of Auburn’s six losses have been by less than a full score. The game is in Jordan-Hare Stadium, and Alabama isn’t playing well on offense at the moment. If you think this is starting to read like a potential Upset Special, you’re not wrong.
OFFENSE
As Vanderbilt learned the hard way two weeks ago, the departure of Freeze freed up Auburn’s RPO-based spread offense, and we wish we had a larger sample size to judge. D.J. Durkin is the new head coach, but Durkin’s a defensive guy and most of Auburn’s offensive improvement has come from getting Freeze out of the picture and changing quarterbacks. Auburn’s offense has run the ball competently for most of the year anyway, ranking 43rd. Total offense has shot up to 83rd overall with passing offense at 104th, but most of those struggles came from wasting so much time on Arnold at quarterback. Given that Auburn has been very good in turnover margin for the entire season anyway, Alabama was already going to have to deal with a team that didn’t turn the ball over much. Making the quarterback position more dynamic could only help. Alabama’s offense continues to put up good passing numbers (9th) but struggle against the run (107th), despite just coming off a game in which the Crimson Tide scored 8 times on the ground.
QUARTERBACKS
Auburn could play as many as three quarterbacks in this game, but the Tigers’ biggest challenge will be to correctly pick between Ashton Daniels and Deuce Knight. Arnold figures to be relegated to third-string duty at this point, as he more or less repeated his 2024 Oklahoma season at Auburn, which meant ineffective passing mixed with functional running. Auburn deployed Daniels against Vanderbilt but sat him against Mercer in order to protect a redshirt; statistically, Daniels and Arnold have almost identical QB ratings (121.7 for Arnold, 124.7 for Daniels), but Daniels was much more effective as a runner (4.3 ypc vs. 2.8 for Arnold), although Arnold leads the team in rushing touchdowns with 8. Virtually all of Knight’s stats all came against Mercer, and he showed himself in that game to be an able passer and an explosive runner. The common denominator for all three quarterbacks is that they’re going to be asked to make plays in the running game, and Alabama has struggled against running quarterbacks for years, although 2025 has showed marked improvement in that regard. Alabama will start Ty Simpson, who is coming off a string of performances that have varied between above-average to just below – not terrible, but far from the kind of performances that turned him into a Heisman Trophy candidate earlier in the year. The challenge for evaluators is figuring out who to compare Simpson against from the Auburn roster. Auburn has, by pure accident, developed depth better than Alabama’s at this point, but it’s hard to know exactly how good Daniels or Knight really are, or how each stacks up to Simpson. We expect Daniels to start and Knight to play, with Arnold carrying a clipboard unless it’s an emergency situation or the other two completely fall on their faces. We’re taking Simpson and Alabama in this spot mostly because Bama is more of a known quantity, with a good track record in 2025. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Alabama continues to have issues here. Jamarion Miller had a mediocre day against Eastern Illinois, which has followed a string of poor performances ever since a concussion in the Missouri game. Kevin Riley won’t play in this one, and Daniel Hill suffered what appeared to be a hand or wrist injury of some degree against EIU, so we’re not entirely sure he’ll be at 100 percent. If he is, he needs to start and play as much as possible, because there’s almost no comparison at the moment to how Hill is running the ball and how Miller is performing. Akylin Dear figures to elevate to the third-string position for this game, although Richard Young and Dre’lyn Washington have also taken that spot at times this year. Auburn will use mostly Jeremiah Cobb, who has run for 936 yards on 165 carries (5.7 avg.) but just 4 touchdowns on the year; Cobb has decent speed but he is not much larger than Riley is for Alabama and the inside rushing game was basically the responsibility of QB Jackson Arnold, who isn’t playing anymore. True freshman Omar Mabson was moved up to second-team after the dismissal of Damari Alston; Mabson is shorter than Cobb but has a bit more beef. He hasn’t gotten enough work yet to really evaluate, tied in carries with Alabama’s Dear at just 16. Auburn will use QBs Daniels and Knight in the same way that Arnold was used, and all three quarterbacks have a size advantage over the running back group. We’re not as fired up over the Auburn running game as some are, but given the state of Alabama’s running backs, the Tigers end up with a clear edge by default. Advantage: Auburn
WIDE RECEIVERS
The top performer here is either Alabama’s Germie Bernard or Auburn’s Cam Coleman, and the two players go about their business in different ways. Coleman is a traditional outside wide receiver, physical and with good size. He has caught 52 passes for 682 yards (13.1 avg.) and 5 touchdowns. Alabama is one of the few teams that can match up physically to him in the secondary, however, with both Bama corners in Coleman’s same size zone. The issue for Auburn has been production elsewhere in the unit. Eric Singleton winds up being the reception leader for either team at 55, but he averages less than 10 yards per catch and has more of a utility role than anything else, which includes an average of 1-2 rushing attempts per game. Perry Thompson and Malcolm Simmons round out the core of the unit, with Simmons probably the most potentially impactful player outside of Coleman. At tight end, Preston Howard and Brandon Frazier are tall, big tight ends with decent hands but not a lot of speed. Alabama’s Bernard is probably the team’s MVP, catching 48 passes for 676 yards (14.1 avg.) and 6 touchdowns, running 16 times for 97 yards (6.1 avg.) and 2 touchdowns and throwing a couple of passes. Isaiah Horton and Ryan Williams will start alongside him, and both of them are among the top receivers in the conference, even with Williams’ drops. Lotzeir Brooks and Rico Scott provide depth, with Brooks potentially as good as any of the starters. The big question here is at tight end. Both Josh Cuevas and Danny Lewis Jr. are out for this game, which will leave a pair of true freshmen, Kaleb Edwards and Marshall Pritchett, as the main choices. Brody Dalton had a nice performance against Eastern Illinois, grabbing 3 catches in that game, and he and Jay Lindsey will be the backups in this one. Edwards and Pritchett have caught just about as many passes as Auburn’s Howard and Frazier despite starting the year as backups. At receiver, anyone would love to have Coleman playing for their team but Alabama has superior depth across both the list of starters and then again on the bench. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Auburn’s line has struggled mightily in 2025 although recent performances have shown somewhat of an uptick, especially in run blocking. For the year, Auburn ranks 119th in tackles for loss allowed and 132nd in sacks allowed. This should be a similar scenario for Alabama to what the Crimson Tide faced at South Carolina. The loss of center Connor Lew was a major blow to Auburn, and Southern Cal transfer Mason Murphy will start in his place. Dillon Wade and Jeremiah Wright will start at the guards, giving Auburn an all-senior lineup in the middle three. Right tackle Izavion Miller is also a senior, while left tackle Xavier Chaplin, a Virginia Tech transfer, is a junior. There’s a lot of size up front but Auburn has struggled against quicker defensive linemen, which Alabama has in spades. Alabama will start Parker Brailsford at center and Kadyn Proctor at left tackle, and then it’s the same guess-the-rest scenario that it always is. We expect Kam Dewberry to get the call at left guard, Wilkin Formby at one of the positions on the right, and then either Jaeden Roberts or Michael Carroll depending on whether Formby starts at right tackle or right guard, respectively. Geno VanDeMark and Will Sanders will also play at the guard spots. Alabama also gets a lot of credit for fixing their OL metrics as the season has gone on; Alabama is still mid-pack at 68th in sacks allowed, but has risen to 32nd in tackles for loss allowed. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
Auburn’s defensive alignment is essentially a 3-1-3 multiple front, playing mostly in a four-man base more often than not. The defensive front has allowed the Tigers to do a lot of things and keep a bad offense in games. Auburn is 38th in rush defense and 11th in total defense, but pass defense has been an issue at times – 68th in pass efficiency defense and 98th in raw pass defense. A lot of the team’s success has come from being adept at making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Alabama will bring its 4-2-5 Swarm package in that is currently 9th in total defense, 32nd in rush defense, 4th in raw pass defense and 21st in pass efficiency defense.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama has gotten better as the year has gone along, with a lot of early-season struggles now apparently due to injuries at the time to Tim Keenan. Keenan, James Smith, London Simmons, Kelby Collins, Edric Hill aand Isaia Faga will rotate at tackle, with L.T. Overton, Jordan Renaud and Keon Keeley the primary forces at defensive end. Auburn will start Bobby Jamison-Travis and Malik Blocton at tackle, with Zykevious Walker, Jay Hardy and Dallas Walker IV backing them up. All but Blocton are seniors. At end, Keldric Faulk is listed as the starter there, but he’s banged up and Amaris Williams and Jared Smith figure to see more time than usual there. This is a strong unit against the run, but it’s imbalanced in the pass rush, as no Auburn defensive tackle has recorded a sack yet this year. All the pressure comes from the edges, but to Auburn’s credit, they bring a lot of it from those spots. Still, the ability for the line to be able to create its own shutdown scenarios without bringing a lot from the second and third levels gives Auburn a bit of an edge here. Advantage: Auburn
LINEBACKERS
Keyron Crawford plays what is called the “Buck” position for Auburn, essentially a Jack linebacker in this situation who can either play end or a stand-up linebacker. It’s highly analogous to Alabama’s Wolf linebacker spot occupied by Yhonzae Pierre. Of Crawford’s 31 tackles on the year, 9.5 have been for loss and 5 of them have gone for sacks. Crawford has also intercepted a pass, caused and recovered a fumble, and recording 5 QB hurries. It’s a high-leverage position, and Auburn has gotten good production out of not just Crawford, but backup Chris Murray as well. Inside, Auburn will start Robert Woodyard and Xavier Atkins, with Elijah Menendez and Demarcus Riddick backing them up. Atkins, a redshirt freshman transfer from LSU, has been one of the best linebackers in the conference, leading Auburn in tackles with 81 including 15.5 for loss and 7.5 sacks. Given that Atkins is about the size of a lot of teams’ strong safeties – just 6’0”, 215 – this amount of production is staggering. Woodyard is equally a study in odd body types, as he is 6’0” but nearly 250 pounds, an old-school thumper in the middle. Alabama will start Yhonzae Pierre outside, who has become one of the SEC’s most feared pass rushers. The big news outside is that Qua Russaw returned to the field last week and had a lot of production in a very limited snap count. Justin Hill and Noah Carter should also see time in specific roles. Inside, Justin Jefferson, Deontae Lawson and Nikhai Hill-Green have developed into a solid three-man rotation across the two inside spots after beginning the season struggling. There’s no question that Atkins is the standout from this group, but Alabama has better balance across the positions and can do more things with its edge linebackers. This is really a push but we’ve been impressed with the trajectory of Alabama over the past month and a half. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSIVE BACKS
There’s plenty of separation here; it’s Alabama’s defensive strength and may be the Tigers’ weakest unit overall. Auburn will start Kayin Lee and Jay Crawford at the corners, Kaleb Harris and Alabama transfer Jahquez Robinson at the deep safeties and Sylvester Smith at the nickel. Smith will miss the first half of the game as the result of a targeting penalty in the second half against Mercer, so Kensley Louidor-Faustin will probably get the call for the first two quarters. Top reserve CB Champ Anthony is out for this game entirely, which will put Raion Strider or Rayshawn Pleasant on the field more often than usual. Alabama will use Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. and Domani Jackson at corner, Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb at the high safeties and probably a rotation of DaShawn Jones and Rydarrius Morgan at nickel. Zavier Mincey offers depth at safety, along with Ivan Taylor and Kolby Peavy. Auburn has played – and started – a multitude of players in the back end, trying to find the right mix. They’ve had their moments, but the statistical gulf is so wide here that the choice is clear. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
After the last few weeks, do we really need to say anything? For Alabama, the good is contained to the punt team; Blake Doud has done an outstanding job as the punter, and punt returns are in solid hands with Cole Adams. But kick and punt defense has petered out in a big way, and then there is the situation at placekicker. Conor Talty missed another short kick against Eastern Illinois, to the point that he got lifted in favor of true freshman walk-on Peter Notaro. We expect Talty to be the kicker against Auburn, but we would not be surprised to see either Notaro or senior Reid Schuback get a look. Auburn has no such issues; Alex McPherson has been consistent all season as the placekicker, and Hudson Kaak is a reliable punter. Auburn has excelled in kickoff returns but has struggled returning punts. Punt and kick return defense has been mediocre overall. While Auburn isn’t exactly setting the world on fire here, they aren’t watching their world burn, either, which the Alabama special teams group has been doing for the better part of a month. Sure would be nice for Alabama to come to Jordan-Hare Stadium not worrying about special teams for once. Advantage: Auburn
OVERALL
Alabama leads in five categories, Auburn in three, although linebacker is a virtual push. In OL-DL cross-matchups, both teams’ defensive lines hold edges over the opposing offensive lines, although Alabama’s edge is larger in its matchup than is Auburn’s edge over the Tide OL.
We’ve gone back and forth on this one for two weeks now. Auburn is essentially Oklahoma Lite, and that’s the kind of team built to give Alabama the most trouble: solid defensive line, mobile quarterback, aggressive posture with lots of blitzing. Auburn has nothing to lose in this game, D.J. Durkin is auditioning for the permanent head coaching job, and the Tigers need the win for bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Alabama absolutely has to win this week to keep its playoff hopes alive, and might still need to win the SEC Championship Game to overcome a College Football Playoff committee that seems determined to keep Alabama (or any comparable SEC team) out of it.
Were the game in Tuscaloosa, we’d probably take Alabama by 7-10 points here and feel reasonably confident about the pick, with Alabama having a chance to win by a lot more than that. But it’s not in Tuscaloosa; it’s in the one stadium in the conference that Alabama just can’t seem to figure out. The last two games here obviously had better outcomes for Alabama, but in both cases, Alabama was a lot better than Auburn yet it took last-minute heroics in each to secure the victory.
At one point this week, we were prepared to take the Tigers in an upset, and we still wouldn’t be surprised at all to see it happen. But we’re going to trust the breakdown, as well as trust that Alabama can find a way to close the deal on its playoff run.
Alabama 24
Auburn 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN