Last Week’s Record: 5-1 (83.3%)
Season’s Record: 80-19 (80.8%)
We got back on the horse last week here at the Predictions Dept., losing only the Florida-Kentucky game because we didn’t figure Week 11 would be the collapse point for the Gator program. This week’s slate of games is headlined by Oklahoma-Alabama, of course, but Georgia-Texas could be just as good. The schedule falls off a good bit after that, but for pure entertainment’s sake, Mississippi State-Missouri could be interesting to watch.
ARKANSAS at LOUISIANA STATE
If Arkansas’ defense wasn’t so completely putrid, this one would be a nice B-option for the week. Arkansas figures to put up some points, yes, but LSU’s defense is good enough to get multiple stops. We’re not sure Arkansas’ defense can return the favor. The Razorback defense has reached the point where we call it “theoretical” rather than an actual, functioning unit. The question for LSU is will its players decide to pull a Florida and just lie down in the quit position. Frank Wilson seems like the kind of guy who can keep the Tigers interested, but the decision to bench QB Garrett Nussmeier down the stretch last week in favor of Michael Van Buren looks a bit desperate in retrospect. Bobby Petrino still has a legitimate chance to nail down the permanent job in Fayetteville, so the two teams’ situations aren’t completely the same despite both head coaches’ interim status. It’s just that we don’t think Arkansas has the horses.
LSU 34
Arkansas 27
OKLAHOMA at ALABAMA
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FLORIDA at MISSISSIPPI
Rumors are swirling that Lane Kiffin will be on the opposite sideline the next time these two teams meet, but Kiffin has been adamant to this point that he’s staying in Oxford. Still, what better way to up the offer from the Gators than to absolutely slaughter them in a home game, and based off the stench of a performance that Florida put on tape last week against Kentucky, a slaughter is exactly what we’re looking for here. Absent some kind of miracle performance from Florida’s quarterback, which we don’t expect to see, the biggest question is when – or if – Kiffin will get off the gas at some point in the second half.
Ole Miss 45
Florida 17
TEXAS at GEORGIA
The Longhorns seem to have woken up over the past month, getting better play on the OL and from QB Arch Manning. But this is a road game for Texas – and by that we’re specifically talking about a road game in Athens – with Kirby Smart knowing a playoff spot could be hanging in the balance. Georgia is an imperfect team with a defense that doesn’t always show up together for every game, but the Bulldogs probably don’t want to spend their mulligan – assuming one exists – by dropping a second home game in 2025 to an opponent of equal strength.
Georgia 31
Texas 23
TENNESSEE TECH at KENTUCKY
It would be just like Kentucky to follow up last week’s undressing of Florida with a ho-hum performance at home against an FCS opponent – which is why we’re going to pick it to happen. Tell us if you’ve seen this movie before: Kentucky finds itself in a 6-3 slugfest at the half that slowly grows into 37-3 or something like that in the late third/early fourth.
Kentucky 37
Tennessee Tech 3
MISSISSIPPI STATE at MISSOURI
Missouri got slammed last week by Texas A&M; the loss wasn’t unexpected, especially given Missouri’s injury issues at quarterback, but the total domination by the Aggies probably was. Freshman Matt Zollers can’t put up another performance like that one this week, because the Bulldogs can score points quickly and will try to cram as much into 60 minutes of clock time as possible. Mississippi State needs a win either here or in the Egg Bowl to achieve bowl eligibility, which would be a feat for Jeff Lebby in his second season. We don’t see the Bulldogs pulling it off against Ole Miss, so it needs to happen this week. It will all come down to the Bulldog defense and whether it can keep Missouri from shortening the game with its rushing attack.
Missouri 27
Mississippi St. 24
SOUTH CAROLINA at TEXAS A&M
South Carolina’s brutal schedule still isn’t cutting the Gamecocks a break, as they must now travel to face arguably the conference’s hottest team. Texas A&M’s offense features more balance than Alabama’s, and only the home-field advantage allowed South Carolina to keep the Alabama game closer and threaten an upset. The Gamecocks have no such safety net this week, and the functional issues that kept Bama in it a few weeks ago are still there: Offensive line with no ability to block, lack of consistency in the defensive front seven, and now there’s an interim offensive coordinator to deal with. This one is almost out of the range of plausibility in regard to a potential upset, but as long as QB LaNorris Sellers is available, USC has a puncher’s chance. They just might get punched out before they can do anything about it.
Texas A&M 34
South Carolina 17
NEW MEXICO STATE at TENNESSEE
New Mexico State has lost four in a row, including to FCS Missouri State, and the Aggies are best known to the rest of the country as “where Diego Pavia got his start.” If there’s anything to lean on for NMSU, it’s that the defense can occasionally rise up and be functional, especially against the run. Tennessee isn’t going to give them the chance, though. This game should be over by halftime.
Tennessee 52
New Mexico St. 10
IDLE: Auburn, Vanderbilt
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN