Midseason coaching changes are always hard to figure for teams that wind up being the interim coach’s first opponent. Will Alabama see the LSU everyone thought was going to be here at this point in the year, or will Alabama simply get Brian Kelly’s leftovers?
Alabama comes into this game, like LSU, rested up from a bye week. Up to this point in the season, LSU has sort of been “Bama Lite” – both teams have functional defenses that can sometimes put up grand performances, but both offenses have been overly reliant on the pass relative to the run. The shocking development has probably been the struggle of LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier to live up to his preseason hype.
Louisiana near-lifer Frank Wilson is the interim head coach. He comes into this game with a career record of 26-40 as a head coach from stints at McNeese State and UTSA. Other than that, his most notable history involving Alabama was probably the fact he was Lane Kiffin’s wide receiver coach at Tennessee for the Terrence Cody “Blocked Again, Cody Again” game in 2009.
OFFENSE
LSU runs a more traditional pro-style offensive package than does Alabama (assuming Wilson didn’t use his off-week to install a completely new system), but the results in 2025 have been disappointing to say the least. LSU has an even less-impactful running game than does Alabama (122nd for LSU vs. 114th for Alabama), but the Tigers also have been struggling through the air (48th) which leads to a total offense rating of 93rd. Alabama is 14th in the passing game, with total offense landing at 49th due to the struggles with balance. Alabama’s offensive design, to this point, has been more dynamic than LSU’s and figures to lean further into those traits as opposing defenses become tougher down the stretch.
QUARTERBACKS
Garrett Nussmeier was the early betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy, but it always seemed to be a bit of a longshot due to his makeup. Nussmeier is a classic pocket passer with only token levels of mobility. He is a coach’s kid with good arm strength, though, which helps offset some of the issues with pocket movement or raw size. We’re going to give him the benefit of the doubt that his struggles were at least partly caused by the Kelly-led train wreck that ultimately triggered regime change within the LSU program, but that still doesn’t change the fact that Nussmeier has thrown 5 interceptions and is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt, which are pedestrian numbers to be sure. Alabama will start Ty Simpson, the most recent player to ascend the Heisman betting lists, and he has thrown 8 more touchdowns than Nussmeier (20 vs. 12) with just 1 interception. Simpson is also much more of a threat to make something happen with his wheels, and is averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. We don’t expect this one to involve any backup quarterbacks, but Nussmeier seems to be more affected by contact, so it’s worth knowing that his backup is Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren. Van Buren has an edge in experience over Alabama’s Austin Mack and Keelon Russell, but he is somewhat limited. Alabama holds advantages up and down this list, ranging from modest to substantial, and unless Bama gets a completely different version of Nussmeier than the one we’ve seen so far, it’s a decent overall edge to the Tide. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Looking at some of the talent in a vacuum, it’s hard to believe both groups have mimicked a federal disaster area when it comes to the ground game. We knew coming into the year that LSU would be limited, and neither Caden Durham nor Ju’Juan Johnson have done much to move the needle. True freshman Harlem Berry has looked solid, though, with his carries increasing as of late, and we expect him to be the featured back against Alabama. If there’s a downside to his game, it’s that Berry is roughly the size of Alabama’s Kevin Riley, and Riley has seen his contributions decrease as the conference schedule has amped up. Alabama will start Jamarion Miller, with Daniel Hill as the likely primary backup. Whether either Dre’lyn Washington or Akylin Dear get opportunities coming out of the off-week remains to be seen, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Alabama’s top three rushers are all averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry. For that reason, we give LSU the edge here based on the emergence of Berry, who is averaging a full yard more per tote than any of Bama’s primary backs. Alabama’s best runner over the last month at least has probably been WR Germie Bernard, and you can’t build a running game around gadget plays. Advantage: LSU
WIDE RECEIVERS
One of the most curious takeaways from the Brian Kelly fallout is that LSU, known for the past 20 years as an elite developer of wide receivers, has had to go outside its own developmental umbrella for wide receiver talent. All three starters – Zavion Thomas, Barion Brown and Aaron Anderson – began their careers elsewhere, as did fourth receiver Nic Anderson. Kyle Parker is the only homegrown wideout with double-digit catch totals. Thomas came from Mississippi State, Brown from Kentucky, Aaron Anderson from Alabama and Nic Anderson from Oklahoma. Having said that, the two Andersons in particular can be matchup problems, Aaron due to his shiftiness and Nic due to his height and size. Alabama’s starting trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton, plus fourth receiver Lotzeir Brooks have put up more impressive numbers and are more dynamic talents overall. Where LSU might have an edge is at tight end, despite Alabama’s Josh Cuevas being one of the most reliable targets there in the conference. LSU will start either Oklahoma transfer Bauer Sharp or sophomore Trey’Dez Green, and Green at 6’7” and 240 pounds is going to be an issue. Alabama may or may not have Danny Lewis Jr. back for this game; it would be a positive if so, because Lewis seems to have more of an impact on the running game than either Jay Lindsey or Kaleb Edwards. LSU definitely spent for talent here, but the production hasn’t matched the hype. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Much has been made of Alabama’s failure to establish a consistent running game, but the Alabama offensive line has actually done a respectable job of minimizing negative plays – at least, when compared to the rushing offense totals. Alabama’s OL ranks 45th in tackles for loss allowed and 72nd in sacks allowed; LSU ranks 76th in sacks allowed but 91st in tackles for loss allowed. Those negative plays add up, and explain in part why Alabama’s rushing offense is actually ranked more highly than LSU’s despite higher ypc-average numbers from the LSU running backs. LSU will start Braelin Moore at center, Josh Thompson at right guard and freshman Weston Davis at right tackle. The left side is a bit more unclear. Redshirt freshman Coen Echols has moved ahead of Paul Mubenga at left guard, and while Tyree Adams is the usual starter at left tackle, he missed the Texas A&M game and was replaced by freshman Carius Curne. This is an exceptionally young offensive line with only three upperclassmen, Thompson and Moore and reserve guard Bo Bordelon, in the entire two-deep. Alabama will start Parker Brailsford at center and Kadyn Proctor at left tackle, and based on what we saw against South Carolina, we expect Jaeden Roberts to start at right guard and get most of the work there. Kam Dewberry will probably start at left guard, although Geno VanDeMark will play there and probably some at right guard as well if he’s healthy. Otherwise, look for Will Sanders to get some work. Wilkin Formby appears to have – for now – held off the charge of true freshman Michael Carroll at right tackle. Neither team has played many clean quarters but Alabama has far more experience, depth, and fewer matador plays on its tapes. Advantage: Alabama
DEFENSE
LSU’s defense is essentially a 4-3 in base form, although one of the outside linebackers catches the “Star” label for no apparent reason. The Tigers trail Alabama in total defense, 36th to 24th, but have been more consistent front-to-back, especially in the front seven. Alabama has more explosive ability, and quite frankly the Crimson Tide’s 4-2-5 Swarm scheme appears to be a better fit for its personnel than the 4-3 is for LSU’s.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama has faced seemingly a dozen premier edge rushers over the past month, but just going by the numbers, that streak stops here. LSU defensive ends Patrick Payton and Jack Pyburn have combined for only 2.5 sacks between them, with Pyburn especially underachieving in 2025 relative to what was expected when he transferred in from Florida. LSU ranks 56th overall in sacks, thanks to decent middle pressure from tackles Jacobian Guillory and South Florida transfer and Montgomery, Ala., native Bernard Gooden, and the linebacker units. Alabama has seen Gooden before, and at just 6’1” and 268 pounds, he’s one of the smallest FBS tackles you’ll find anywhere – but he can be highly effective for his size and frustrate slower offensive linemen. Tackles for loss, though, come in at just 101st nationally. Dominick McKinley and Ahmad Breaux will back up the tackles, while Jimari Butler and Dylan Carpenter will back up the end spots. Whether Gabriel Reliford is able to return this week from injury remains unclear. Alabama ranks 83rd in sacks and 69th in tackles for loss, so at least from the standpoint of key negative plays, there isn’t much of an edge going either way. Tim Keenan and James Smith will start at tackle with London Simmons, Kelby Collins, Edric Hill and Isaia Faga backing them up. The big edge Alabama has over LSU is on the outside, where L.T. Overton can affect games in a way that Payton and Pyburn so far have been unable to do. Yhonzae Pierre has become one of the SEC’s most feared edge pressure guys over the past month or so; Justin Hill and Noah Carter will back him up while Keon Keeley, Jordan Renaud and Fatutoa Henry will support Overton. Alabama has been modestly better at tackle but has the ability to grow that edge; outside, the Crimson Tide has been far more effective as of late at affecting the quarterback. Advantage: Alabama
LINEBACKERS
This one probably comes down to whether Whit Weeks will be able to play on a bum ankle. He has a deep bone bruise that has cost him LSU’s last two games and it’s unlikely he’ll be 100 percent regardless, but a linebacker unit of Weeks, his brother West Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr. is, at least on paper, one of the best in the SEC. One issue will be whether Alabama, by formation, allows LSU to stay in base defense. If Whit Weeks can’t go, or is limited, look for more nickel sets from LSU, with Perkins drawing most of Weeks’ old assignments. Davhon Keys would become the third linebacker, with Tylen Singleton likely the top backup. Alabama will rotate Justin Jefferson, Deontae Lawson and Nikhai Hill-Green at inside linebacker, and this trio has shown steady improvement over the past 3-4 weeks. If they play the way they did against Tennessee and South Carolina, whether LSU is incrementally better on paper won’t matter. The key for Alabama will be in stopping a physical, downhill running game if the interim staff chooses to implement one. With Jefferson being on the lighter side of things for Alabama, getting the best run fit is often a concern. We think Weeks will be able to offer at least some kind of value to LSU even if he isn’t completely healthy. Advantage: LSU
DEFENSIVE BACKS
These two groups are essentially tied statistically, quite a feat for an LSU secondary that wasn’t expected to be elite, and it says something about both groups that they can put up good numbers without an elite defensive front putting pressure consistently on opposing quarterbacks. P.J. Woodland and Virginia Tech transfer Mansoor Delane will start at corner, with Tamarcus Cooley and A.J. Haulcy at the safeties. The target here may wind up being Woodland, who only clocks in at around 160 pounds. Haulcy comes into the game as the team’s leading tackler, and he’s a good coverage safety, but has only 0.5 tackles for loss on the year and no sacks, and doesn’t really make a lot of plays around the line. Freshman D.J. Pickett will see the most work of the reserves. Alabama will rotate Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. and Domani Jackson at corner, while Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb and DaShawn Jones get the call at the safety spots. With Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. suspended following an arrest, Alabama will have to find someone else to go with Red Morgan and Zavier Mincey off the bench at safety. Ivan Taylor, Kameron Howard and walk-on Kolby Peavy are the next ones up there. We like both groups, but Alabama has more length at corner and Hubbard gives Bama an additional weapon near the line of scrimmage. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Rather surprisingly, LSU has some of the worst coverage rankings (113th in kickoff return defense, 128th in punt return defense) of any school that has access to the kind of speed and raw talent like that found on the Tigers’ roster. Punter Grant Chadwick has a gross punting average of 47.4 yards per kick, but the porous punt return defense means the Tigers rank only 102nd in net punting. Placekicker Damian Ramos is usually very reliable inside 50 yards, but he does have a missed PAT. LSU is average to below-average in punt and kickoff returns. Alabama will start Blake Doud at punter, and he has been solid in 2025, helping Alabama to a ranking of 27th in net punting. Alabama hasn’t been able to crack the code on either punt or kickoff returns, trailing badly in both, although punt returner Cole Adams is virtually automatic in fielding tough kicks soundly. Alabama’s return defense is squarely mid-pack, but that means a big edge in that subcategory compared to LSU. Conor Talty has been solid in short kicks and PATs but has only attempted about half the kicks on the year that Ramos has attempted for LSU, meaning Alabama still doesn’t really know what it has at the position when the chips are down. Ramos and Chadwick are both probably superior to Talty and Doud when compared 1-on-1, but the unsoundness of the rest of LSU’s special teams unit makes it impossible to give the Tigers an edge here. Advantage: Alabama
OVERALL
Alabama leads in six categories, LSU in two, but special teams is close to going either way. In the OL-DL cross-matchups, both are close to being called a push, but we will give Alabama slim edges in both for now, with Alabama’s OL against LSU’s DL being the wider of the two margins.
A 6-2 lead with both OL-DL cross-matchups should be an easy recipe for victory, especially with the game in Bryant-Denny Stadium, but this is also LSU we’re talking about here. The craziness of going through a coaching change the week of the game? That’s peanuts-level stuff for the LSU program, which has seemed to feed off chaos over the years. Recall, too, that it was not so long ago that the road team in this series was usually the smart pick.
We think LSU will be far more fired up than usual to help support Wilson, especially since there’s little chance a new hire would retain him. If Wilson can milk that for what it’s worth and convince his players that they’re playing for him, LSU has more than enough weapons on the roster to make life tough for Alabama. The receivers, running backs and quarterback have all underachieved this year, but the talent shines through to anyone who cares to look closely enough.
For that reason, Alabama has to do a good job shutting down the LSU running game and make Nussmeier try to win a one-dimensional game – while putting pressure in his face. Given the state of the LSU offensive line, Alabama ought to be able to do the latter, but the Crimson Tide needs to firm up its run fits on defense and play with more discipline. Wilson has given strong hints that he wants LSU to run the ball more in this game, maybe more so than in any other LSU game so far this year. If that’s the case, and if Alabama arrives unprepared for it, the Crimson Tide could have a problem on its hands.
Even though last year’s score got well into blowout territory, don’t expect a repeat of that. Every game from here on in (Eastern Illinois excepted) will be a fight.
Alabama 31
LSU 20
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN