All things considered, getting through a tough Week 9 with a 5-2 record feels pretty good here at the Predictions Dept. For Week 10, Alabama is off, but the Florida-Georgia matchup figures to still be entertaining, as does the clash of worlds between all-offense Tennessee and Oklahoma, which wins mostly because of its defense.

Last Week’s Record: 5-2 (71.4%)
Season’s Record: 73-14 (83.9%)

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS

These two teams both should have probably won their games last week. Mississippi State gave away what would have been a nice win against Texas, ultimately losing in overtime. Arkansas let the second half of a matchup against Auburn get away from it, proving there is a lot of work to be done to what is probably the conference’s worst defense. This therefore becomes a matchup of double disappointment, and there have been some arrows flying in MSU head coach Jeff Lebby’s direction this week after the debacle against the Longhorns. Either team could win this game, either team could lose it. It’s a matchup of two programs trying their best to get back on some kind of winning track, but too often derailed by their own penchant for shooting themselves in the foot. When it’s this close, bet the home team.
Arkansas 41
Mississippi St. 37

KENTUCKY at AUBURN

Remember when Auburn was involved with a 3-2 game against Mississippi State a few years back? It might happen again against Kentucky this week. The Wildcat offense is wholly dysfunctional, but Auburn might have found something by benching QB Jackson Arnold in the middle of the game against Arkansas last week and replacing him with Ashton Daniels, eventually outscoring Arkansas 23-3 after the halftime break. Hugh Freeze is in a full-on fight for his job right now, and many in Auburn are hopeful he can pull it off, because otherwise Auburn is going to find itself in a bidding war with several teams across the region that are either expecting a job opening or that have already started the process. Daniels was 6-of-8 for 77 yards against Arkansas, not earth-shattering numbers by any stretch but a much better fit for what Freeze wants to do on offense than the body of work Arnold has put up thus far. Kentucky’s Mark Stoops shouldn’t feel completely secure in his job, either, but finding a way to beat Auburn on the road would be a good start.
Auburn 23
Kentucky 17

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville, Fla.)

Billy Gonzales will be the head coach for the first time in his career as Florida meets Georgia in Jacksonville. The Gators have a good enough defense to give Georgia some trouble, and if QB D.J. Lagway comes to the game with his “on” switch engaged, Florida could put some real heat on the Bulldogs. The question for Georgia is the same as always: Can the defensive front get enough pressure to force stops, and then can Georgia run the ball effectively enough to take the pressure off quarterback play that varies between average to just above average? It’s hard to call a traditional rivalry game a trap game, but that’s kind of where Georgia finds itself, through none of its own doing. We’re still not sure exactly how good Florida is, but an upset of Georgia just seems unlikely.
Georgia 27
Florida 20

SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI

South Carolina’s trek of woe continues, as it must go to high-flying Ole Miss a week after collapsing late against Alabama. The Gamecocks put some decent offense on tape against Bama, but it was the defense, especially the speed off the edges, that stood out. Ole Miss won’t have quite the level of quarterback play that Alabama had, but the Rebels are more balanced on offense and potentially more explosive. The Rebels must, however, play tighter defense than they’ve played as of late, as giving up 43 to Georgia and then 26 to Oklahoma ought to double as warning flags. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is good enough to carry this game on his back, but Alabama showed how even an average defensive front can get consistent pressure against a barely functional offensive line.
Ole Miss 34
South Carolina 17

OKLAHOMA at TENNESSEE

Tennessee’s defense can be a problem to itself at times, but Oklahoma’s offense occasionally goes into full shutdown mode. The most points Oklahoma has been able to put up in a conference game is 26, and that’s not likely to be enough against the Volunteers. With the game in Neyland Stadium, Oklahoma will likely have further issues in production. Oklahoma QB John Mateer doesn’t look quite the same as he did before the thumb injury, and Tennessee’s offense ought to be able to exert enough pressure to keep Mateer from getting comfortable. One more loss and Oklahoma is likely out of any potential playoff scenario, and Brent Venables hasn’t always been able to answer the bell in games like this.
Tennessee 30
Oklahoma 20

VANDERBILT at TEXAS

Texas was the early betting favorite in this game, which sort of dismays us given the problems the Longhorns have on offense in general and at quarterback specifically. Vanderbilt might not be respected as a traditional SEC power, but we’ve seen enough from the Commodores not to underestimate them, especially when they have a clear edge under center. Furthermore, Texas’ defense wasn’t up to the task against Mississippi State, and we certainly don’t feel that Vanderbilt is significantly lesser than the Bulldogs on that side of the ball. Yes, it’s a road game, but this one feels like a chance for Vandy to make a statement, and QB Diego Pavia is well-practiced in the art of making statements.
Vanderbilt 27
Texas 24

IDLE: Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN