Tennessee preview: Favorites or not, getting past Vols would be a milestone for Bama

There are some games that just mean more. And not just because a playoff spot potentially hangs in the balance.

For Alabama, there is the continuing growth as a team that began in the aftermath of the opening-week debacle against Florida State. There is also the need to avenge last year’s 24-17 loss in Knoxville, a game Alabama feels it probably should have won. And then there are the countless other reasons that all stem from the fact that Tennessee is – well, Tennessee.

Discuss on the TideFans.com Football Board

This matchup will pit a defense known for big plays but not necessarily one that is able to do the small stuff correctly (Tennessee) against one that has put up results that seem to improve by the week, but seems to lack star power up front and thus, may be somewhat of a mirage (Alabama). Offensively, it’s the SEC’s preeminent spread team (UT) versus an Air Raid-flavored attack that may be missing its biggest running threat (Alabama and RB Jam Miller).

It’s easy to see why this matchup is so heavily anticipated. Old histories and modern playoff implications will meet, and should provide a showcase of a game.

• Projected Depth Chart for Alabama vs. Tennessee

OFFENSE

Tennessee is a modern marvel of an offensive team; the Volunteers lead the nation in scoring, rank 7^th in passing offense, 4^th in total offense and 22^nd in rushing offense. They lead the country in 4th-down conversions. Despite the numbers leaning somewhat to the pass, this is actually a team that prefers to run the ball whenever it can, and its wide splits and formations are built to continuously keep defenders on their toes. Tennessee is one of the fastest-scoring teams in the country and ranks just 124^th in time of possession despite being as efficient as it is. The Vols have taken to calling their offense the “veer and shoot,” a plausible moniker. Alabama will counter with its pro-style attack influenced by complex passing concepts. Alabama is 39^th in total offense and 14^th in passing offense; while it continues to struggle statistically against the run (101^st nationally), the Crimson Tide has made strides in its last two games.

QUARTERBACKS
Tennessee effectively traded last year’s starter, Nico Iamaleava, to UCLA through the transfer portal and picked up Joey Aguilar. While the Volunteers don’t utilize Aguilar’s rushing skills often – he has only 26 attempts so far, which includes plays that end in sacks – he does qualify as a dual-threat quarterback under most definitions. Aguilar has thrown for 1,680 yards and holds a 64.8% completion rate, along with 14 touchdowns. But it’s the interceptions that are somewhat concerning; he’s thrown 5 already and has several other close calls. Aguilar can be streaky and also has had some issues with his composure in hostile environments, of which Bryant-Denny Stadium will certainly qualify come Saturday. However, he also is a vocal leader and plays with more confidence than Iamaleava did for most of 2024. The backup is a redshirt freshman, Jake Merklinger, who is 12-of-22 (54.5%) for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Alabama will start Ty Simpson, who is getting his turn this week at shooting to the top of Heisman Trophy betting odds sheets and 2026 NFL mock drafts. Simpson has thrown for just 2 fewer yards than Aguilar, but is completing passes at a better clip (70.9%) and has thrown 16 touchdowns to just a single interception. Backups Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are both better prospects than Merklinger but the experience is about the same. Tennessee arguably got better with the exchange of Iamaleava for Aguilar, but Alabama’s Simpson is playing at a higher level at the moment and makes fewer mistakes. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
The development of the running game over the past couple of years in particular is probably not something most saw coming from a Josh Heupel-coached team. Deshaun Bishop has averaged 7.6 yards on 63 carries but he won’t be 100 percent for this game. He’s expected to play, but Alabama should probably expect to see more of Duke transfer Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis than usual. Thomas is a solid back but averages 2.3 yards per carry less than Bishop, so the loss will be felt if Bishop winds up limited. Unfortunately, Alabama probably won’t be taking advantage of that. Jamarion Miller suffered a concussion late against Missouri and while he’s listed as probable, we at TideFans.com don’t expect to see much of him. We are expecting Kevin Riley to get the start with Daniel Hill backing up; if Miller plays, we believe it will be on a much-reduced snap count. Miller’s return to the team against Georgia paid immediate dividends and while Riley has been a nice changeup at the spot, losing Miller for this game complicates matters. If Miller is out entirely, we’re not sure whether Richard Young or Dre’lyn Washington becomes the third back. The running game was barely functional prior to Miller’s earlier return, so losing him here, even if it’s just for a portion of his day, affects Alabama a lot more than what’s going on in the Tennessee backfield. Advantage: Tennessee

WIDE RECEIVERS
It was probably just a matter of time, but big Chris Brazzell finally has developed into the downfield threat Tennessee was hoping for when he transferred in from Tulane a couple of seasons ago. Brazzell, who is listed at 6’5”, 200 and plays even bigger, has caught 32 passes for 536 yards (16.8 avg.) and 7 touchdowns already. Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews are good complementary players but aren’t as physically imposing as Brazzell is. Of concern for Tennessee here is that the top two reserve receivers, Travis Smith and Radarious Jackson, are both listed as out for this game; Joakim Dodson and Trey Weary have a combined 3 catches and are going to be thrown into the fire. Former Alabama tight end Miles Kitselman has followed a strange career path but he has become one of the SEC’s best tight ends, a capable receiver and strong blocker on the edge. Alabama will start Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton, each of whom has established himself as a dangerous threat in different ways. Lotzeir Brooks is probably the best fourth man in the conference. With Derek Meadows, who was emerging as a key part of the rotation, out for this game with a concussion, Alabama will have to lean harder on Brooks and players like Rico Scott and Jalen Hale. Josh Cuevas continues to be a key factor at tight end and is one of the most versatile tight ends in the SEC. Danny Lewis Jr. missed the first month-plus of the season, returned for Missouri and made two key catches, and is now once again listed as doubtful. That puts Kaleb Edwards back in the spotlight as Alabama’s other tight end. While neither unit is completely healthy, and Brazzell has the best stat line on either team, Alabama has better depth and more speed. But Tennessee should get credit for developing its receiver corps beyond what most observers in the preseason thought possible. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
Tennessee is 2^nd nationally in tackles for loss allowed and 8^th in sacks, impressive results for sure. Notre Dame transfer Sam Pendleton will start at center and Arizona transfer Wendell Moe Jr. will start at right guard, but the rest of the two-deep is mostly homegrown. Lance Heard and redshirt freshman Jesse Perry will start at the tackles and Shamurad Umarov will start at left guard. If there’s a weakness to exploit here, it’s that Perry plus the second unit is all freshmen with the exception of reserve tackle Brian Grant. Tennessee’s offensive tempo and zone blocking scheme helps cover up some of the rough spots, but the talent isn’t an issue; this is just a really good line. Alabama will start Parker Brailsford at center and Kadyn Proctor at left tackle; for the rest, we expect Kam Dewberry and Geno VanDeMark to start at the guards with Wilkin Formby at right tackle. There will probably be a change soon at Formby’s spot, as true freshman Michael Carroll is pushing hard there and it’s probably a matter of time. Once that happens, Formby will probably land in the logjam at right guard that also includes Jaeden Roberts. Alabama has developed more depth so far than has Tennessee, but the results can’t be ignored. Alabama is 41^st in tackles for loss allowed, which isn’t terrible, but ranks 99^th in sacks allowed. Advantage: Tennessee

DEFENSE

Tennessee will keep things multiple up front but this is mostly a four-man-front team. However, the Vols have been largely ineffective on defense this year, and the inability to get stops has let even teams like Mississippi State and Arkansas hang around in games for too long. Tennessee ranks 101^st in total defense but outranks Alabama in rushing defense (59^th to 94^th for the Tide). Pass efficiency defense is just 82^nd but raw pass defense is downright awful (122^nd). Scoring defense comes in at just 107^th. Alabama is 18^th in total defense, 3^rd against the pass and 30^th in pass efficiency defense. Alabama ranks 22^nd in scoring defense out of its own take on the 4-2-5 alignment.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Here’s the crazy part: Read through Tennessee’s abysmal defensive metrics and you think you’re looking at a team with a deficient line, but you’re not. Tennessee leads the nation in tackles for loss and is 5^th in sacks, which makes no sense given the struggle of the unit as a whole. Even crazier is that all four starters are seniors – ends Dominic Bailey and Joshua Josephs, and tackles Jaxson Moi and Bryson Eason. Another senior, Tyre West, is the top backup at end, and he’s a good one – both West and Josephs come into this game with 4 sacks recorded. Production is tilted more toward the ends than the tackles; neither Moi nor Eason, nor top backup Jamal Wallace, project as consistent difference-makers at tackle. Alabama will start Tim Keenan III and James Smith inside, with L.T. Overton and Yhonzae Pierre coming off the edges. London Simmons, Edric Hill and Kelby Collins are the top names off the bench at tackle, while Jordan Renaud, Keon Keeley and Justin Hill figure to get most of the reserve work outside. Alabama ranks in the 90s in both sacks and tackles for loss. Tennessee is bigger up the middle than Alabama, with all three of the Vols’ top performers there ringing the bell at more than 300 pounds. Both teams will field veteran units, but there’s been little doubt so far this year which team has proved to be more dangerous up front. Advantage: Tennessee

LINEBACKERS
Arion Carter already has a whopping 57 tackles for Tennessee on the year, 20 more than the next-closest Volunteer. Carter, along with Jeremiah Telander and Edwin Spillman, all are bigger linebackers, which is somewhat odd in modern 4-2-5 alignments. However, Tennessee will frequently bring those three onto the field together, as the Vols flex between and even and odd front enough that the defense probably doesn’t fit neatly into the 4-2-5 bucket. Spillman will miss the first half of this game due to a targeting call in the second half against Arkansas, and his replacement will be a true freshman, Jaedon Harmon. There’s a drop-off there. Spillman is probably the best linebacker Tennessee has at pressuring the quarterback, so the Tide would be wise to make hay in the first half as best it can. Alabama will start Justin Jefferson and Deontae Lawson inside with Nikhai Hill-Green the primary backup to both. Q.B. Reese will probably fill the role of fourth linebacker if it comes to that. Jefferson has begun playing better and more aggressively as of late, but the Volunteers have proven their mettle in rush defense especially. It’s a bit closer than it might look, however. Advantage: Tennessee

DEFENSIVE BACKS
The one place Tennessee will be hard-pressed to compete is in the secondary. The Vols don’t intercept a lot of passes (62^nd) but the bigger issue is they simply don’t do a good job stopping anyone through the air. Auburn and Colorado transfer Colton Hood will start at one cornerback spot with a true freshman, Ty Redmond, the likely co-starter. Another true freshman, Tre Poteat, is his backup. Andre Turrentine and Edrees Farooq will start at the safeties. Tennessee’s best defensive back is arguably the starter at nickel, Jalen McMurray. The issue is a general lack of star power for the Volunteers, who are accustomed to having at least a couple of steady playmakers in the back end. Alabama will use Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr. and Domani Jackson at corner. Keon Sabb, Bray Hubbard and DaShawn Jones will start in the safety group. Rydarrius Morgan and Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. figure to see some time at safety as well. Alabama has done a much better job at ballhawking, ranking 31^st at intercepting passes. This is probably the biggest gap between any two units on the board, including the lines. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Tennessee was expected to be solid here and the Vols haven’t disappointed. Tennessee is solidly in the top 40 or so in all major categories, including returns and return defense and net punting. Jackson Ross has been steady punting the ball, and PK Max Gilbert is 10-of-12 on field goal tries with his only two misses being longer kicks. Alabama started strong here but has gotten a bit wobbly; the Crimson Tide’s best weapon is probably punt returner Cole Adams, who teams tend to kick away from most of the time. Kicker Conor Talty has been reliable under 40 yards but over that, things get a bit unpredictable. Punter Blake Doud came out of the gate firing, but his last couple of games have been somewhat shaky. Alabama certainly has the potential to keep pace with the Volunteers in this category, but the operative word is “potential.” Tennessee has simply put up better results across the board. Advantage: Tennessee

OVERALL

Tennessee leads in five categories, Alabama in three. The Vols also control both OL-DL cross-matchups by comfortable margins.

The question to be asked is where can Alabama even things up or even push ahead. Oddly enough, the running back category is probably the closest to flipping, with special teams close behind. But the bigger question is whether Alabama’s advantages in the secondary and at quarterback are by margins wide enough to make up for shortcomings elsewhere.

Tennessee has not performed well at Bryant-Denny Stadium as of late. Aguilar’s erratic quarterback play could become a key factor, exacerbated by the hostile environment. There’s also the question of whether Alabama’s secondary, which is full of players who know how to create turnovers, can buy the Tide a couple of free possessions in this game.

The potential loss of RB Jam Miller also hurts in several ways, not the least of which is that Alabama has positioned itself as a ball-control team even though it throws more than it runs. Alabama ranks 7^th in time of possession, with Miller being a large part of that accomplishment. If he’s not available, the Tide probably won’t continue that trend. And we believe a major part of Alabama’s game plan is to limit the number of possessions that Heupel’s offense gets.

In the end, we like the home-field advantage, and we believe Alabama’s secondary will match up more favorably with Tennessee’s receivers than the Volunteers have seen so far from other teams in 2025. But the line matchups are worrisome. Alabama will be hoping that Tennessee’s defense will be as scattershot as it has appeared to be against lesser teams. If Alabama can expose the same weaknesses that have popped up in earlier UT games, the Crimson Tide ought to be able to overcome what looks like an upset situation on paper.

Alabama 31
Tennessee 27

Discuss on the TideFans.com Football Board

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN