Missouri preview: Tigers’ offensive balance makes them tough — but enough to be favorites, too?

When Missouri convinced Louisiana-Monroe RB Ahmad Hardy to transfer to the Tiger program, it didn’t cause much more than a ripple or two in the news cycle. The Tigers had added depth, but that was the extent of the reaction from most observers.

Fast-forward a few months later and Hardy is a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate and, along with backup Jamal Roberts, the reason some are now predicting the Tigers to go deep into the College Football Playoff. Missouri was expected to have a decent passing game in 2024, but now has a top-flight rushing attack to go with it.

Alabama is coming off impressive wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, and now faces a Missouri team that ranks 1^st in rushing defense and 2^nd in total defense nationally. There are some questions about the level of competition the Tigers have faced, but Alabama still has questions about its ability to get it done on the road on a consistent basis.

OFFENSE

Missouri’s offense comes from the Gus Malzahn-Hugh Freeze style, albeit more in line with pro-style concepts than Malzahn’s offenses sometimes are. Head coach Eliah Drinkwitz has welded those concepts into the typical spread-style system theory and what you end up with is an offense that ranks 4^th nationally, 3^rd in rushing and 49^th in passing. The Tigers will make great use of RPO action and tempo, and the offensive skill talent will put pressure on Alabama’s defense in ways perhaps that even Vanderbilt couldn’t accomplish. Alabama’s pro-style attack with Air Raid trappings has been both incredibly efficient and adept at controlling the clock. Alabama ranks 26^th in total offense, 5^th in passing offense, but just 104^th in rushing offense.

QUARTERBACKS
Missouri thought it was going to have a two-headed quarterback system for at least the first part of the year, but Sam Horn was injured in the opener and now Penn State transfer Beau Pribula has the job all to himself. Pribula has running skills either at or just above those of Alabama’s Ty Simpson, but the questions concern Pribula’s passing acumen. On the season, he has excellent completion percentage numbers, going 110-of-145 (75.9%) for 1,203 yards and 9 touchdowns and a QB rating of 161.9. But he has also thrown 3 interceptions. Despite his athletic ability in the run game, Pribula has taken 12 sacks and sometimes runs into pressure. His downfield and deep passing skills are still largely unknown quantities, but short- and mid-range accuracy is fairly settled science at this point. His backup is a true freshman, Matt Zollers, who is 6-for-6 on the year in limited opportunities. Alabama’s Simpson trails Pribula in accuracy but only by just a bit (111-of-158, 70.3%), while Simpson has thrown for more yards (1,478) and has more touchdowns (13) and fewer interceptions (1). The backup situation for Alabama, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell, is superior to Zollers, but Zollers is a good prospect in his own right. Pribula hasn’t been challenged yet the way he’ll be challenged by Alabama; while he appears to be a very competent quarterback with some plus-skills, we like Simpson’s resume more, and the depth situation favors the Crimson Tide. Advantage: Alabama

RUNNING BACKS
Ahmad Hardy was a freshman sensation at ULM in 2024 and one of the big reasons the Warhawks nearly made a bowl game. At Missouri, he’s quickly elevated himself to be potentially the best running back in the conference. At 5’10” and 210 pounds, he has enough size to take a steady pounding from SEC defensive linemen and linebackers, and on the year, he has rushed for 730 yards and 9 touchdowns on 103 carries (7.1 avg.). Backup Jamal Roberts is even bigger, (6’0”, 215) and has rushed for 350 yards and 3 TDs on 48 carries (7.3 avg.). Freshman Marquise Davis has netted 200 yards and 2 touchdowns on 34 carries (5.9 avg.) as the third-string back. By comparison, Alabama looks like it has never tried to rush the football in its life, although the fact Jamarion Miller has played only two games now since a return from a collarbone injury certainly has to factor into the conversation. Miller broke out against Vanderbilt, and is a factor both as a receiver and a pass blocker. Kevin Riley will back him up, followed by apparently Daniel Hill now instead of Richard Young. Still, both Miller and Riley have fewer yards each than Missouri’s third-string rusher. Hardy’s most significant trait is his ability to break tackles and create yardage for himself after contact, which plays well against Alabama’s front seven, which has had an issue with missed tackles. Having Miller back helps the Alabama offense in a lot of ways, but raw production alone demands Missouri get the edge here. Advantage: Missouri

WIDE RECEIVERS
Outside receivers Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning are competent, but neither are particularly unique among SEC receivers. Manning has good size, 6’2” and 213 pounds, and some physicality about him, but Alabama has seen better. By far, most of the production of this unit has come from Mississippi State transfer Kevin Coleman, who operates out of the slot. His 39 receptions are more than Johnson (18) and Manning (12) combined, but Coleman, a smaller receiver, is averaging fewer than 10.0 yards per catch. Tight end Brett Norfleet is finally healthy, and while he has a lot of receptions (20), he’s typically a factor in short-yardage routes and goal-line work only. Depth falls off sharply after the starters, as Daniel Blood and Donovan Olugbode have not yet been able to make a mark as downfield receivers. Alabama will start Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton and despite showing up on the Alabama injury list, most expect Ryan Williams to play a full game. Reserve receiver Lotzeir Brooks is more dynamic than most of the starting receivers in the conference himself, and TE Josh Cuevas has been a factor both on short and intermediate routes. Missouri has a solid unit, but Alabama’s is arguably the best unit on what is a very talented team overall. Advantage: Alabama

OFFENSIVE LINE
A lot will come down to whether Cayden Green, an Oklahoma transfer, can play in this game or not. Early reports suggest he will miss this game or at best, be incredibly limited. Without Green, expect some shuffling on the left side of the Missouri line, with Jayven Richardson starting at left tackle and Michigan transfer Dominick Giudice starting at guard. Connor Tollison will start at center, Curtis Peagler at right guard and Keagan Trost at right tackle. Missouri has been fairly good in run blocking (35^th in tackles for loss allowed), but giving up pressure to pass rushers has been an issue. The Tigers rank just 99^th in sacks allowed and Green may be the best they have at preventing that stat from getting worse. For Alabama, the sure things are Kadyn Proctor at left tackle and Parker Brailsford at center, and we’re reasonably sure Kam Dewberry will start at left guard. On the right side, though, it could be one of several combinations, with Wilkin Formby a factor at both guard and tackle, and Michael Carroll providing solid work as a true freshman at right tackle, and Geno VanDeMark, Will Sanders and Jaeden Roberts all a possibility at right guard. Despite Alabama’s line-by-committee approach, Alabama is making it work, as the Crimson Tide ranks 26^th in tackles for loss allowed and 69^th in sacks allowed. Moreover, Alabama is healthier than Missouri right now, and has also developed more depth. Advantage: Alabama

DEFENSE

While Kirby Moore has become one of those wunderkind names to watch as offensive coordinator, the better job may be being done by defensive coordinator Corey Batoon. The Tigers run a 4-2-5 defense that is very close in structure to Alabama’s 4-2-5 Swarm under Kane Wommack – and that’s no accident, given that Batoon worked for Wommack at South Alabama. In addition to ranking 1^st in rush defense and 2^nd in total defense, Missouri is 10^th in pass defense, 12^th in pass efficiency defense and 16^th in scoring defense. Alabama comes in ranking 20^th in total defense, 5^th in pass defense, 34^th in pass efficiency defense, 21^st in scoring defense and 87^th in rush defense.

DEFENSIVE LINE
Obviously this is the leverage point for Missouri given its ability to shut down opposing run games so far in 2025. Missouri ranks 39^th in sacks and 27^th in tackles for loss; Alabama is 108^th and 80^th in those same categories. Damon Wilson and Zion Young are both solid off the edge, giving the Tigers the ability to both rush the passer and control both edges in the running game. Wilson is listed as a linebacker on some lists, but he is 6’4” and 250 pounds and more of a typical defensive end. In the middle, Chris McClellan and Marquis Gracial start, with Brian Henderson and Sterling Webb providing depth. Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen back up the outsides. If there is a soft spot here, it’s that production (other than in the case of Smith) falls off a good bit going from the starters to the backups. In Smith’s case, he has just as many QB hurries (6) as he does tackle, a somewhat obscene number of pressures for a part-time player. Alabama will have Tim Keenan and James Smith together at tackle – and at full strength – for four quarters for the first time this season, barring another appearance of “Targeting Roulette,” which cost Smith half the Vandy game. Edric Hill has developed into an effective changeup off the bench, as he is smaller than a typical tackle and potentially more disruptive. London Simmons and, over the past couple of games, Kelby Collins have also made a mark off the bench. Outside, L.T. Overton and Jordan Renaud will handle the Bandit spot, while Yhonzae Pierre continues to develop as an edge rusher at the Wolf spot, with true freshman Justin Hill now his chief backup. Alabama is getting better here, and the return of Keenan should help to slowly bring down the rush defense numbers, but Missouri has simply been better by every measurable point of analysis. Advantage: Missouri

LINEBACKERS
Justin Jefferson is coming off a SEC Defensive Player of the Week performance against Vanderbilt; the key now is for Jefferson, Deontae Lawson and rotational sub Nikhai Hill-Green to continue to improve their consistency, as run fits and presnap analysis have been lacking at times. Alabama will be without its other backup inside linebacker, Cayden Jones, for this game, meaning Q.B. Reese may be called upon to fill in. Missouri will start Triston Newson and West Virginia transfer Josiah Trotter, and Trotter has been a godsend to the Tiger program, leading them in tackles (28) and tackles for loss (6). Khalil Jacobs, a former South Alabama player who briefly considered transferring to Alabama, is one of the two primary backups, and both he and another backup, Nicholas Rodriguez, actually have more tackles than Newson does. These are two very similar units, and Alabama actually has the upper hand in applying pressure from these spots to the opposing passing game, but the Tigers have a clear edge in run support. Advantage: Missouri

DEFENSIVE BACKS
There’s a slight difference in the application of Missouri’s 4-2-5 defense here, as the nickel position is filled by a player, Daylan Carnell, who is sometimes listed as a linebacker. At 6’2” and 225 pounds, he’s more in the vein of Vanderbilt’s Randon Fontenette, and is likely a big reason that Missouri has been more effective stopping the run. Contrast Carnell with Alabama’s nickel DaShawn Jones, who is a converted cornerback. Elsewhere, Missouri will start Toriano Pride and Dreyden Norwood at the corners, and Marvin Burks Jr. and Jalen Catalon – who seemingly enrolled at Arkansas initially circa 1963 – at the safeties. Alabama will use Domani Jackson, Zabien Brown and Dijon Lee Jr. at the corners, with Jones, Bray Hubbard and Keon Sabb at the safety spots. While Missouri has slightly better stats on paper, Alabama’s corners are significantly longer and more dynamic, while Hubbard sort of cancels out any edge Missouri brings in having Catalon (allegedly) finishing out his collegiate eligibility in Columbia. Advantage: Alabama

SPECIAL TEAMS
Missouri has been without its presumptive placekicker, Blake Craig, for several weeks now with an undisclosed injury, and his replacement, Robert Meyer, has been anything but automatic. However, Alabama’s Conor Talty has developed some unreliability of his own at longer distances, so we’re not sure whether there’s an edge here to be had for either team. The rest of the special teams units favor Alabama; Missouri is mediocre-to-bad in the entire punting game, especially punt return defense (125^th). Missouri holds a slight edge in the overall net punting yardage category, but it’s nominal at best and the Alabama coverage teams have proven themselves. This might be the week that Cole Adams is able to give Bama some plus yardage in the punt return game. Advantage: Alabama

OVERALL

Alabama leads in five categories, Missouri in three, but there is only one significant edge on the board (now that Jam Miller is back at running back), and that is at defensive line, where Missouri leads solidly. If Missouri was healthy on the offensive line, this one may have wound up a 4-4 split. As for the OL/DL cross-matchups, because of the strength of the Missouri DL, both by itself and relative to the Alabama OL, the Tigers control both.

And that puts us in a strikingly similar posture to where we were prior to the Georgia game, where the Bulldogs seemingly held the edge in both OL/DL cross-matchups going in, but didn’t necessarily prove it coming out. For that matter, Alabama’s offensive line has been on a heater the last two weeks, exceeding expectations against both Georgia and Vanderbilt, which might be a factor of the in-game competition the Alabama coaches have engendered by playing 8-10 linemen a game on the reg.

The difference between this game and last week’s matchup against Vanderbilt is, of course, mostly contained to a discussion of venue. This game will be on the road, but Missouri’s stadium is smaller, under renovation and crowd strength there is not usually the issue there that it usually is at other SEC sites. We believe Missouri and Vanderbilt are of almost equal strength in 2025, albeit built differently.

One issue here is there isn’t a specific weak point Alabama can exploit. Against Vanderbilt, Alabama could highly leverage its wide receiver unit against the subpar Vanderbilt secondary. That kind of edge doesn’t exist here.

It would be easy to imagine Alabama suffering a letdown after a two-week run that saw them slay the Goliath in Athens, then follow that up with a revenge win at home over the Commodores and their polarizing quarterback, Diego Pavia. The Tigers have done nothing to really raise Alabama’s ire this time around, and they’re looking for revenge of their own after a 34-0 smarting at the hands of Alabama in Tuscaloosa last year.

This is still a team Alabama should beat, but how well the Crimson Tide can keep RB Ahmad Hardy pinned down will tell much of the tale, as well as whether Alabama can pressure Pribula with his offensive line down a few bullets.

Alabama 26
Missouri 17

Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN