When Nick Saban retired from coaching, it was well understood by most that the mantra of tough, physical football would probably – at least in the short-term – be passed to Saban protege Kirby Smart and the Georgia football program.
While other SEC teams still play a physical brand of football, it is Smart who has adhered to Saban’s old formulas the longest, and Georgia has done the best job of the other SEC teams at keeping those philosophies alive. Whether Alabama itself can (or even wants to) re-ascend to those levels is a discussion for another day, but what isn’t up for debate at the moment is that the Crimson Tide needs to answer for criticisms that arose out of the opening-week loss to Florida State – a loss that saw Alabama get tagged with the “soft” label by many.
This game against Georgia was always circled, well back into the past offseason, as a checkpoint for the Alabama program under Kalen DeBoer. But most people expected Alabama and Georgia to both get here with unblemished records.
Georgia’s record is, indeed, still without a loss, but the Bulldogs got taken to the brink two weeks ago by a Tennessee program that has a lot in common with the current Crimson Tide, especially in regard to offensive construction. Alabama is coming off a nice win over Wisconsin, but the Badgers dropped a home game to mid-level Maryland the week after the Alabama loss. It might be that the improvements made by Alabama in its previous two games could be something of a mirage.
We know this much to be true: If Alabama loses this game and falls to 2-2, the margins to still get into the College Football Playoff become razor-thin.
OFFENSE
While both teams will base from a three-wide, one-back formation, the theories behind these two offenses couldn’t be any more different. Georgia is rooted in the pro-style attack, and will use multiple tight ends in an attempt to force power running plays against the Alabama front seven, while still throwing the ball enough to keep Alabama honest. Alabama is far more wide-open and pass-oriented, owing to its Air Raid roots. So far, the two teams are pretty much on top of each other in output, with Georgia ranking 24th in total offense and Alabama 31st. The key for Georgia is balance; the Bulldogs rank 30th in rushing and 41st in passing, while Alabama is 9th in passing offense and just 102nd in rushing offense.
QUARTERBACKS
We’ve called Gunner Stockton “Great Value Stetson Bennett” before, because that’s what his game is patterned after, but that moniker might not stay in place for long. Bennett rose from game manager to offensive weapon largely due to knowing exactly when to bail from the pocket at utilize his legs, even though he was more limited as a runner than most quarterbacks he squared off against. Stockton’s first year as a full-time starter has been much the same story; he’s already amassed 124 yards on 28 carries (4.4 avg.) and 3 touchdowns, which includes yardage lost to sacks. If he was on Alabama’s roster, he would be the team’s leading rusher. As a passer, Stockton has been equally effective, with a 70.8% completion percentage, 4 touchdowns against no interceptions, and a QB rating of 159.7. Alabama will counter with Ty Simpson, who has been even brighter than Stockton as a passer (71.9%, 9 TD, 0 INT, 186.6 QB rating), and has proven to be an able runner, even if he doesn’t take off as much. It’s fairly clear from watching the two of them that Simpson has the superior downfield passing skills and more game-breaking ability as a passer, but both players bring an ideal fit to their respective offenses. Where Alabama has a clear edge is on the bench, as both Austin Mack and Keelon Russell have shown far more promise than has Georgia’s Ryan Puglisi. Stockton deserves kudos for exceeding expectations – anyone who saw him play in late 2024 was concerned about potential dropoff for Georgia at that spot – but Simpson is a level above right now and the depth situation for both teams can’t be ignored. Advantage: Alabama
RUNNING BACKS
Alabama is still struggling to find a rhythm here. Kevin Riley has emerged as the closest thing to a sure thing that Alabama has, but as stated above, put Georgia QB Gunner Stockton on this Alabama team and Riley becomes the No. 2 rusher by yardage gained. Riley’s slim build is made up for somewhat by his physicality and especially his versatility, but no clear backup has emerged. Whether Jamarion Miller is available to return this week from a collarbone injury is yet to be seen, but even if he does, he’d be on a strict pitch count. Alabama has to get something out of Richard Young, Daniel Hill and Dre’lyn Washington that it hasn’t yet seen, at least not on a consistent basis, or Akylin Dear has to begin to make a move forward. Riley can’t do it by himself. Georgia will use Nate Frazier, Chauncey Bowens and Dwight Phillips Jr., all of which have been either equal or superior to anything Alabama has been able to put on the field. Add in Stockton as a reliable runner and the Georgia running game is completely on another level. If there’s a complaint to be had with Georgia’s runners, it’s that Frazier and Bowens are averaging about a half-yard-per-carry too little to see so much action. Not particularly close here. Advantage: Georgia
WIDE RECEIVERS
Aside from Simpson, this has been the strength of the Alabama offense, if not the entire team, and it’s not just because Alabama has Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams running routes at the same time. The addition of Isaiah Horton has given Alabama three legitimate bellcow receivers, and true freshman Lotzeir Brooks continues to make an impact in the slot. The tight end position – primarily Josh Cuevas, but increasingly true freshman Kaleb Edwards when Alabama goes to an Ace look – has quietly transitioned from a position of concern in the preseason to a strength. The continuing issue of Danny Lewis Jr. missing games with a foot injury has been covered up by Edwards’ emergence. For Georgia, Zachariah Branch can be a problem for even the best defensive backs, but Georgia needs more production from some of the secondary targets. Colbie Young has been a solid second target, but Dillon Bell has been largely AWOL and London Humphreys probably isn’t at the level of some of these other names. As usual, Georgia has a pair of talented tight ends in Oscar Delp and Lawson Luckie, but Alabama’s Cuevas matches their combined production. The Southern Cal transfer Branch has made what could have been a moribund Bulldog receiving corps far more respectable, but Alabama just has more bullets in the clip. Advantage: Alabama
OFFENSIVE LINE
Here’s the crazy stat of the week: Georgia’s offensive line and Alabama’s offensive line are tied in sacks allowed at 46th. Alabama is 19th in (fewest) tackles for loss allowed. Georgia? The Bulldogs are 85th. On top of that, Georgia may be without arguably its best lineman, Earnest Greene III, although he is currently listed as probable for the game. Center Drew Bobo and the left side of the line – guard Micah Morris and tackle Monroe Freeling – have started every game so far, but the right side, where Greene and true freshman Juan Gaston are the presumptive starters, has been a bit of a carousel. Jahzare Jackson, Michael Uini and Bo Hughley are other names that could see action at right guard and tackle. Alabama has gotten Jaeden Roberts back at right guard, but Geno VanDeMark will continue to swing behind Roberts and left guard Kam Dewberry as needed, especially when Alabama is anticipating having to throw more often. The return of Roberts has coincided with an uptick in run blocking efficiency, as has the emergence of true freshman Michael Carroll at right tackle, where he is now considered to be in a platoon of sorts with Wilkin Formby. Center Parker Brailsford and LT Kadyn Proctor should be considered fairly locked in right now, although Proctor’s play has been uneven at best. Alabama technically has better OL metrics than Georgia, and probably now has a slight edge in health, but Georgia has also accomplished more on the ground even though it seems prone to more negative plays. This one is quite close. Advantage: Georgia
DEFENSE
You know what you’re getting with Kirby Smart’s defense – it’s the Nick Saban 3-4 over/under with a few minor tweaks. Alabama will continue to run its 4-2-5 Swarm package under Kane Wommack, which has come under fire from some fans due to poor run defense numbers, but is statistically superior to Georgia’s defense at this time. Alabama is 19th in total defense, 19th in scoring defense, 3rd in raw pass defense and 31st in pass efficiency defense, but just 71st in rushing defense. Georgia ranks 39th in total defense, 30th in scoring defense and 18th in rushing defense, but is a problematic 81st in raw pass defense and 101st in pass efficiency defense. This game will tell a lot about where the two programs really are.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Georgia’s defensive line isn’t nearly what it used to be, but the Bulldogs still hold an edge over Alabama, and it’s all about what the Bulldogs can do against the run – but the edge isn’t nearly as big as it might seem. Surprisingly, Georgia isn’t making a lot of plays in the opponents’ backfield – the Bulldogs rank just 99th in tackles for loss and 105th in sacks. Meanwhile, Alabama ranks 19th and tied for 105th in those two categories. Again, a surprise to many who believe Alabama is outright outclassed in most DL comparisons; the numbers just don’t back it up here. Alabama will start James Smith inside with either London Simmons or Tim Keenan III at tackle. Keenan is expected back this week but at best, will be available for limited snaps. Simmons has quickly acclimated to the spot as a true freshman, but Georgia on the road will be a different level of assignment. Isaia Faga and Edric Hill will rotate there. Outside, L.T. Overton will start at end, ahead of Jah-Marien Latham – if healthy – Jordan Renaud and Keon Keeley. Georgia is led inside by Jordan Hall and Christen Miller, while Gabe Harris and Joseph Jonah-Ajonye are the edge players. An issue for Georgia – no sacks from this group yet. Alabama has been a bit more effective getting pressure from the front, but the superior rush defense from Georgia has to be taken into consideration. Advantage: Georgia
LINEBACKERS
This is where Georgia has covered up a lot of inadequacy from the defensive line. Raylen Wilson and C.J. Allen have played solid football inside, combining for 45 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 sacks, a PBU and a QB hurry. Backup Chris Cole has been a terror off the bench, especially getting to the quarterback. Quintavius Johnson starts at Jack linebacker and while still seeking his first sack on the year, he’s been fairly disruptive in other ways. Alabama’s inside linebacker play has been more erratic; Justin Jefferson, Deontae Lawson and Nikhai Hill-Green have played well the last two weeks, but all three players are probably hoping the Florida State tapes get lost in a fire. While Jefferson is probably the best on either team in coverage, Alabama’s linebackers haven’t been getting home much on the pass rush. Wolf LB Qua Russaw has a sack, but just 5 tackles and has been particularly stymied on impact plays. His backup, Yhonzae Pierre, is arguably the breakout player of the front six, however, and has the bend to frustrate offensive tackles. Georgia has simply been more consistent. Advantage: Georgia
DEFENSIVE BACKS
It’s a bit unfair to compare these two, because Alabama has played run-heavy Florida State and nothing-heavy Wisconsin so far, while Georgia was tasked with slowing down Tennessee’s offense in Knoxville. But Alabama’s secondary, coming into the season, was expected to be among the nation’s best, and largely, the Crimson Tide has delivered. Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown will start at corner with Dijon Lee Jr. rotating in, while Bray Hubbard, Keon Sabb and DaShawn Jones start at the safety spots. We’d still like to see more from Jones’ spot – through three games, he has just two assisted tackles and no other stats – which is why a lot of fans like what they see out of one of his backups, the ever-aggressive Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. Kirkpatrick and Rydarrius Morgan will get most of the bench work at safety. Georgia will start Daniel Harris and Daylen Everette at corner, with K.J. Bolden and Kyron Jones at safety and Joenel Aguero at nickel. To the surprise of few, Bolden has been the go-to talent in the back end for Georgia, while Jones is a solid tackler. Zion Branch adds depth up the middle. Georgia needs more consistency on the corners of the defense in general, especially in the back. Alabama has been a no-fly zone by comparison. Advantage: Alabama
SPECIAL TEAMS
Were it not for a kickoff return for a touchdown allowed to Wisconsin, we’d be singing Alabama’s praises fully. Punter Blake Doud has been a plug-and-play replacement for James Burnip, while PK Conor Talty has been solid. Punt return defense has been good, and even with the gaffe against Wisconsin, Alabama is mid-pack in kickoff return defense, based off the strength of literally every other kickoff this season so far offsetting that one trash-can play. Alabama’s punt returns have been reliable and effective, but Bama ranks 132nd of 134 teams in kickoff returns. Georgia’s Peyton Woodring has been flawless so far on placement kicks, and punters Drew Miller and Brett Thorson have been fairly flawless. The entire return game, both returns themselves and coverage, is sort of meh – but at the same time, nothing negative really stands out. Georgia’s edge in kicker/punter experience probably should be the deciding factor here. Advantage: Georgia
OVERALL
Georgia leads in five categories, Alabama in three, but the special teams category is close to a push. As for OL-DL cross-matchups, this is actually a hard call because of injuries and some surprising ineffectiveness on the part of Georgia’s DL. We’ll call this a split, giving both teams’ offensive lines a modest edge over the opponents’ defensive lines.
Even with all the talk off offensive explosiveness and which team might be considered “tougher” or “more physical,” what we’re left with is a matchup of fairly even teams that is going to probably come down to how the two trench groups handle their respective assignments. Alabama doesn’t need to suddenly discover a running game to win this one – it would help things, certainly – but if it can’t find some pliability in the Georgia defensive front, it’s going to need Ty Simpson to have his NFL coming-out moment. Defensively, Alabama has to prove that the improvements made against the last two opponents aren’t fool’s gold, and that you can really hang your hat on what we saw against Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin.
Georgia’s struggles to stop Tennessee aren’t its only poor marks of the year, either. The Bulldogs were extremely sloppy against Austin Peay in Week 2, and some of the Bulldogs’ rush defense numbers were probably inflated by two games against overmatched opponents. Tennessee rushed for 125 net yards on 34 carries two weeks ago and were a play away from winning. If Alabama can get close to that number, the Crimson Tide should be in this game to the end, too.
That brings us back to Alabama’s struggles on the road under Kalen DeBoer. Even that criticism isn’t universal; Alabama destroyed Wisconsin and LSU last year on the road, and the LSU win especially showed that DeBoer’s teams can get the job done in hostile environments. But this one might be just too much, too soon in both the season and his Alabama career. Georgia wants revenge for the crazy way the game ended in Tuscaloosa last year, Kirby Smart is desperate to do something about his horrible record in games against Alabama, and the Crimson Tide is just too thin in a handful of key spots.
Can Alabama win this game? Absolutely yes, and it wouldn’t even be that much of a stretch. But after watching the dismal failure of the Florida State opener in Tallahassee, we’re going to have to see it to believe it.
Georgia 31
Alabama 28
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN