The Predictions Dept. started off with a good week statistically, but unfortunately one of the losses hurt double: It was Florida State’s upset of Alabama that cut into both our winning percentage and our enjoyment of the season’s opening weekend. This week, Kansas and Missouri tussle in an old Big 8 rivalry revived, while Ole Miss and Kentucky tee off the SEC schedule.
Last Week’s Record: 14-2 (87.5%)
Season’s Record: 14-2 (87.5%)
ARKANSAS STATE at ARKANSAS
Arkansas fiddled around long enough last week with Alabama A&M before putting the Bulldogs away that we’re a little hesitant to go all-in on the Hogs this week, even though the Razorbacks have the stronger roster. Arkansas State won its opener over Southeast Missouri State, but it wasn’t exactly a blowout. The Red Wolves can move the ball, especially through the air, but the defense looked deficient against SEMO and the Razorback defense should be able to hold ASU somewhat at bay.
Arkansas 34
Arkansas St. 24
LOUISIANA-MONROE at ALABAMA
See our extended preview!
BALL STATE at AUBURN
The Cardinals didn’t just help Purdue break a losing streak in their opener, they gave the Boilermakers a shutout win. There’s no chance Ball State will come anywhere close to Auburn, which should be able to run at will in this game as well as give the Tigers’ fledgling passing game a boost in what amounts to a controlled scrimmage.
Auburn 48
Ball State 7
SOUTH FLORIDA at FLORIDA
This game just got very interesting off the strength of South Florida’s opening win over Boise State – a 34-7 win, mind you, over a ranked Bronco team. Florida took care of business against Long Island in the opener, but it was one of those games that showed nothing, as the gulf between the two teams was so large. LSU is up next for the Gators, so Billy Napier has to keep Florida from looking past a very tough in-state rival who wants badly to assert itself against one of the three premier teams in the state. A loss to USF would be devastating for Napier’s chances to avoid being let go at year’s end.
Florida 24
South Florida 21
AUSTIN PEAY at GEORGIA
Georgia beat Marshall, a 10-win team in 2024, by a 45-7 score in the opener. You might very well be able to double that output against Austin Peay if you wanted to. Expect Kirby Smart to call the Dawgs off a lot sooner than that, but this is a walkover.
Georgia 55
Austin Peay 0
LOUISIANA TECH at LOUISIANA STATE
Louisiana Tech is trying to decide what to do with Sonny Cumbie; if the Bulldogs’ opener, a ho-hum win against Southeastern Louisiana, is any indication, it might be time for regime change. LSU is coming into this game having upset Clemson on the road in its opener. This one shouldn’t be particularly close.
LSU 43
La. Tech 17
KENTUCKY at MISSISSIPPI
Ole Miss dispatched Georgia State with ease in the opener, while Kentucky did about what we expected the Wildcats to do: beat Toledo, but do it in somewhat of a boring fashion. Kentucky is again leaning on its defense, as the offense – especially through the air – simply didn’t produce against the Rockets. While Ole Miss’ run defense looked sharp, the pass defense was surprisingly poor. It’s just a one-game sample size at the moment, but Ole Miss looks potentially dynamic again on offense and Kentucky probably doesn’t have the weapons to keep up, even in a low-scoring affair.
Ole Miss 30
Kentucky 17
ARIZONA STATE at MISSISSIPPI STATE
We picked Arizona State to win this one in the preseason, but we’re giving heavy consideration to changing our minds. Mississippi State looked actually functional in its Week 1 win over Southern Miss, thanks largely to the return of a now-healthy QB Blake Shapen. Arizona State, meanwhile, recorded a sloppy win over FCS Northern Arizona, but perhaps the Sun Devils had their minds on this game instead. We tend to not change preseason picks in the first three weeks, while we wait for appropriate sample sizes. That’s the only thing keeping us from flipping this game pick, especially in light of the game being played in Starkville. Confidence is low in this pick.
Arizona State 30
Mississippi St. 27
KANSAS at MISSOURI
Kansas is one of the few teams to have already played two games, both wins. The second of those wins, though, came against small-school Wagner, which means mostly nothing as we try to figure out which of these old Big 8 rivals will walk away victorious. However, Kansas’ opening win – by a 31-7 margin over Fresno State – was a good win over a decent program. Missouri’s only game so far came against Central Arkansas, making the 61-6 win almost meaningless. So back we go to preseason analysis, where we have the Tigers coming in around the middle of the pack in the SEC. The Tiger roster isn’t the greatest, but it’s far from the worst in the SEC. Kansas’ biggest edge may be on the sideline, in the form of head coach Lance Leipold, who is well-respected. Missouri is already having to rethink its quarterback situation somewhat, as Sam Horn was injured in the opener, leaving Beau Pribula as the starter backed up by Matt Zollers, who lacks experience. Don’t expect Missouri to work on depth scenarios this week, however, as Kansas should keep this one fairly close.
Missouri 31
Kansas 25
MICHIGAN at OKLAHOMA
Michigan won its opener over New Mexico, but it was far from the thundering domination that most Wolverine fans expected. Former Alabama RB Justice Haynes ran for 159 yards and the Wolverines managed to shut down the Lobos’ own rushing attack, which proved to be the difference. Oklahoma comes into this one 1-0 after a middling win over FCS Illinois State. Expect a close one here just because it’s in Norman, but Michigan has the better roster and we’re not sure yet that Oklahoma’s offense is any better than it was a year ago.
Michigan 27
Oklahoma 17
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE at SOUTH CAROLINA
The Gamecocks put up a solid win over Virginia Tech in the opener, and now get an early week off as FCS South Carolina State comes to town. We were expecting more from the Gamecocks’ offense in the first game; if this one also is plagued by low output, it might be time to get concerned.
South Carolina 38
S. Carolina St. 13
EAST TENNESSEE STATE at TENNESSEE
Track meet incoming.
Tennessee 61
ETSU 14
SAN JOSE STATE at TEXAS
It didn’t surprise us that Texas lost at Ohio State; it did, however, somewhat surprise us that the Longhorns could only manage 7 points in the process. That should change this week. San Jose State lost its opener to Central Michigan 16-14 and wound up near the bottom of FBS in rushing offense despite who the Spartans played. Texas will use this game to work out some frustrations, as well as get QB Arch Manning some much-needed confidence.
Texas 52
San Jose St. 7
UTAH STATE at TEXAS A&M
If you’re looking for a real outside shot at upset, look here. Utah State is now led by Bronco Mendenhall, formerly the coach at BYU and Virginia. The Aggies opened the season with a nice 28-16 win over UTEP and now get a Texas A&M team that took three quarters to put away UTSA. We’re not going to call an upset special here; we’re just telling you not to be surprised if Texas A&M again takes more time than expected to get into the clear against what initially looks like an overmatched opponent.
Texas A&M 34
Utah State 17
VANDERBILT at VIRGINIA TECH
The Hokies’ defense has nothing to be ashamed of after a first-week loss to South Carolina, but the offense was anemic and couldn’t get out of its own way. Now the Hokies get to try to pay Vanderbilt back for a loss last year that few saw coming until it happened. Vanderbilt won its opener over Charleston Southern 45-3 and looked surprisingly potent on offense in the process. Virginia Tech will be a much different experience, but we like the Commodores on the road this week despite that fact. The Hokies have to first prove to us that they can actually put together a competent offensive plan, because Vanderbilt as the opponent or not, what we saw from VaTech last week won’t cut it.
Vanderbilt 30
Virginia Tech 24
Follow Jess Nicholas on X at @TideFansJessN